Friday, November 28, 2008

Common Foes

Going into the OU-Boone State game, the Horns and Sooners have played 5 common foes: TAMU, KU, Baylor, TT and one another. Texas is 4-1, with a scoring margin of 207-111. OU is 4-1 with a scoring margin of 260-142.

This will all shake itself out in the next 72 hours in one of the following scenarios: a) OU will beat OSU decisively, maintain a lead in the human polls and jump Texas enough in the computer polls to edge the Horns in the BCS; b) OU will edge OSU, will lose ground in the human polls and that will offset the gain in the computers and the Horns will take the Big 12 South; c) OSU will win, and Texas Tech makes the Big 12 South championship; d) Baylor upsets Texas Tech and hands the crown to Texas.

Texas Tech is a 21 point favorite, so d) is highly unlikely. OU is a 7 point favorite against the Pokes, so b) and c) are more likely than a). I'm still going with a Sooner blowout.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Style Points

While watching the UT rout of Cash Machine U today, and the guys in the booth (Fowler, Palmer, James) kept talking about how Mack doesn't run the score up, and that he's not seeking style points. The Longhorns then proceed to score 21 points in the fourth quarter.

I did a little research today to see how the teams fared in scoring by quarter. I ignored the UT-TT game, the UT-OU game to only get games that were victories by both of the teams. So here are the figures:

4th quarter points:
UT - 86 - 44
OU - 41 - 48

2nd Half Scoring:
UT - 198 - 86
OU - 168 - 102

So, in spite of outscoring opponents 251-53 in the first half, UT still needed to outscore their opponents by 112 points in the second half. Maybe talk is cheap, and actions speak louder than words. Oklahoma's "style points" have been obtained in the first half. Don't know of anyone pulling starters in the first half.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Hypocrisy in the media

Austin American Statesman writer Kirk Bohls makes the brilliant argument that Texas should be ahead of OU because they beat them on the field, and that it shouldn't matter that it was several weeks ago. He's being quite hypocritical. Courtesy of the analysis at one can analyze his votes. With this logic, I point out the following discrepancies.
  • Oregon State defeated USC on Sep 25. Kirk voted the Beavers 17th and the Trojans 5th.
  • Oregon State lost to Stanford to open the season. Stanford received no votes from Mr. Bohls.
  • Ole Miss beat Florida 31-30 in Gainesville on Sep 27th. Florida was voted 4th by Mr. Bohls, and the Rebels did not receive a vote. Kirk even mentions this game in his pitch for Texas over the Sooners. To expand further on Ole Miss, they've lost by 2 at Wake Forest, by 4 at Tuscaloosa, by 6 at home to Vanderbilt and by 7 at home to South Carolina. That's a pretty solid 7-4 team he's ignoring.
  • Georgia Tech was voted 19th, yet none of the three teams that beat the Yellowjackets are rated ahead of them.
  • Boston College is ranked 20th per Kirk, but he gave no votes to North Carolina or Clemson, who both beat the Eagles.
  • Cincinnati, who lost to Connecticut, was voted 15th, while the Huskies did not receive a vote.
  • Penn State lost to Iowa two weeks ago, yet Penn State is voted 9th and Mr. Bohls did not cast a vote for the Hawkeyes.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Stolen Thoughts 11-23-28

While hanging out here in non-snowy Steamboat Colorado, here are a couple of links for you...

The Aggie Report has their Longhorn preview video up. It gives some great insight as to Mack's recruiting prowess. For family viewers, stop watching at about 7:30 mark.

While driving up here yesterday, basking in the glow of the Sooners dominating performance, I was contemplating researching something like this. As usual, Matt Hinton at Dr Saturday beat me to it. Hinton does a great job of demonstrating the Sooners quick KO's this year.

Jay Christenson takes issue with the SEC this year.

Stewart Mandel's coverage of the Red Raider OU game gives an interesting point...someone in the UT camp was sending text messages to sports media folks reminding them about the Sooner loss to UT back in October. The other interesting point is that none of the big 3 in the South have won a big game in a hostile enviroment this year. OU's turn will be this weekend at Stillwater.

Holy Cow that was impressive

From my personal perspective, that W had to be the most impressive victory for the Sooners since the 2000 domination of the #11 Texas Longhorns, 63-14. A couple of thoughts:

The 3rd down D was the difference defensively. The Red Raiders converted one third down all day.

Leach's tendency to go for it on fourth down also hurt, in my opinion. He could've used the three when down 14-0 and in the Sooner red zone, and the fourth down down attempt at mid-field set the Sooners up for a short field. Not that it would have eliminated the 44 point gap, but it coulda narrowed it.

Iglesias' juke of defenders and score midway through the second quarter was a thing of beauty, as was Manuel Johnson's one handed grab of a Bradford bomb late in the third. DeMarco and Chris both ran well all day, courtesy of a powerful performance by the offensive line.

Saturday, November 22, 2008


This clan of thieves will be doing some much needed vacationing immediately after the Dust Pirate contest, so we may be silent for awhile.

With a win against Texas Tech, the contest at Boone State has everything at stake. The path for the national championship would lead through Stillwater. When have you heard that and not been talking about wrestling? Lose against TT, and you're looking at the 9-3 season a I predicted in the aftermath of last year's Fiesta Fiasco.

Regardless, we'll know a lot more when I get back to civilization in on December 1.

Until then, Happy Thanksgiving.

Bonus Mountain West Coverage

Big game in Utah this weekend as the Utes host the Fightin' Mormons. Utah has proclaimed the event a white-out*, and encourages all fans to be or act white. Of course, with 89.1% white population, that won't be difficult. I don't believe the white-out is sponsored by Nike.

*actual results may vary

Thursday, November 20, 2008

TT vs OU preview

Okay, here's my treatise on OU vs the Dust Pirates. The Sooners are a 6.5 points favorite, which seems a bit high to me. The over under on the game is 56 I believe, which seems low to me.

Coach Switzer has indicated that OU shoudl win, because they have better players. What Switzer is missing is that the game is a collection of players as a team, not individual players. He's also missing that TT is not just a scrappy bunch of ragtag rejects, but has some serious players. It's also about how the coaches play their strengths against the other teams weakness(es).

Anyway, here are some statisics that I submit for your review, which exclude the 1-aa games.

TT averages almost 47 points a game, while their foes have averaged surrendering 30.4 ppg and a standard deviation of 15.3. They typically exceed their foes average pts surrendered by 1 standard deviation. Since the Sooners average giving up 26 ppg with a standard deviation of 11.9, that would pt the predicted points given up as 38 points.

OU averages almost 51 points per game, while their foes have averaged surrendering 27.8 with a standard deviation of 14.6. The Sooners have typically exceeded their foes average points surrendered by 1.75 standard deviation. Since the Red Raiders average giving up 23 points per games with a standard deviation of 12, one could expect the Sooners to score around 44 points.

Isolating the games to be against 5 common foes, the Sooners averaged 53 points against defenses giving up 30. Their defense gave up 33 points to teams averaging 34 points.

The Dust Pirates average scoring 48 points versus the 30 surrendered. The Red Raider defense gave up 28 points per game.

So, in a nutshell, the Red Raider defense is better than the Sooner defense. The Sooner offense is better than the Red Raider O. The Sooners are at home.

So, with that analysis, I'll predict the score to be 45-38 Sooners.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Beating Texas and OU in the same year

From the LandThieves Research Department

One of the stats I've heard this week is "Texas Tech has never beaten Texas and OU in the same year." Since historically, one or both teams ahve been "pretty good", I decided to see how often that's happened.

First of all, it's happened twice in the history of the Big 12. That was in 1997, when Texas A&M and Oklahoma State both defeated the Horns and Sooners. Texas prevented that from happening again by firing Mackovic and hiring Mack Brown, and we followed suit in 98 with firing Blake and hiring that inexperienced Stoops fella.

There have been 164 teams that have played both squads in a season. Here is a breakdown of the 14 teams that have vanquished both foes:
  • Colorado (1989, 1990, 1993, 1994)
  • Kansas State (1926)
  • Missouri (1916)
  • Nebraska (1933, 1960)
  • Notre Dame (1952)
  • Oklahoma State (1944, 1997)
  • Texas A&M (1951, 1994, 1997)

Data pulled from James Howell's most excellent college football score site.

Tech Motivational Poster o the Week

Testigate Solved

The criminal charges against Allen Beckett, the gent accused of tearing Brian Thomas scrotum, have been dropped.

A few semi-stolen thoughts re Tech

Berry Tramel's article does a good job of describing where Leach ranks in OU history.

On Monday, I read where Leach talks to Switzer regularly. Those have to be some interesting discussions. Anyway, today on ESPN103.3 FM in Dallas, Switzer was on Michael Irvin's radio show. During the course of his discussion (you must listen to Switzer sometime on the radio, it's good stuff), Switzer confirmed he talked to Leach about once a week, and also said Leach would "be at Clemson or Washington or Tennessee next year". I tried to find this snippet on the ESPN radio website but had no luck.

Anyway, I'd be disappointed if Leach leaves Lubbock. I think Leach may be a bit too quirky for many of the larger schools, but there's no doubt in my mind he would succeed at a larger school in terms of success on the field and having kids graduate.

Stolen thoughts 11-19-08

Monday, November 17, 2008

Stay off my lawn

Much ado in the blogger world about Obama's plan for a eight team playoff. Being that I haven't found much to agree with him on, this is most concerning. I might rather have him fixing college football than fixing my income taxes. I'm probably most concerned that I might agree with him on something.

However, as usual, the plan is long on ideas and short on a detailed plan of how it would work. But it would be change! For example, the six BCS conferences doesn't do justice to the Mountain West, which is 6-1 this year against the Pac 10. If you use the BCS standings, you - mercifully - ignore the ACC and the Big East. That's a lot of electoral votes you're turning away from. Do you eliminate the conference championships? Here's the LandThieves plan, even though I still like the EPL format I proposed last year.

  1. You have to eliminate some games to make this work, so eliminate the first game against the Southern Conference/SunBelt/WAC/MAC bottom dweller that you used as an exhibition.
  2. Eliminate the conference championships. this leaves everyone with 11 regular season games. Only four teams would plan more than 12 games.
  3. Eliminate the Coaches poll from the competition. There's an ethical dilemma presented every year. The Harris poll was voters out of touch with what's going on. Tulsa lost to the worst team in the SEC and then by 40 to a conference rival. And they got votes. Nebraska - with 4 losses, but three to teams in the top 12 - gets no votes.
  4. Use the six computer polls presently eligible for the BCS. Allow the computers to consider margin of victory, but cap the MOV at 21 points.
  5. Throw in the Blogpoll as a seventh, just to make it interesting.
  6. Take out the high and low rankings, and you get an average of five rankings. Pick the top eight teams.

Is my plan flawed. Sure. Got a better recommendation? Put it in the comments.

A New Hebrew Temple in Norman

The newest Hebrew temple in Norman has a new sign drawing attention across the community.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

the Sixth Seal: Cosmic Disturbances

Baylor wins 41-21. They let up on the Aggies. This game is historical for the Bears. It's only the 6th time in 105 contests that the Bears have won by 20 or more. It's the first time for a 20+ margin of victory in Waco since November 28, 1901. According to the internets, that day is also marked by the date that the Alabama constitution was modified to require literacy tests to vote. This was viewed as a way to disenfranchise African Americans. Fortunately for all, the Alabama constitution does not require literacy to play football for the Tide, nor is it required to be a Tide fan.

Barring an epic upset by the Aggies over the Longhorns in two weeks, the Bears will be 5th in the Big 12 at the end of the season. It will mark only the second time in the history of the Big 12 that Baylor has finished 5th in the big 12. The other instance was in 2005, when GuyMo's Bears finished ahead of Boone State in Coach Hair Gel's first season as head coach.

The Cash Machine is broken

Baylor scores again to take a 41-7 lead over TAMU. For you historians, this is the second time in 105 games that Baylor has exceeded 40 points. The other times were Nov 28, 1901, when the Bears won 46-0, and Oct 18, 1980, when the Bears won 46-7.

Aggies Grief

We didn't have an OU game to analyze, other than the Sooner hoops victory against Patriot League defending champion American, so we do the next best thing pick on our rivals. As a result...

Reveille Penned the Five Stages of Grief of an Aggie Fan.

Stolen Thoughts 11-15-08

Most of these I found on the most excellent site The Wiz of Odds; it really is a phenomenal site for finding good stuff around the country.

Here's your argument that the MAC is better than the Big Televen.

In an absolutely shocking development, we find that TCU isn't in favor of playing Thurs night road games after Saturday night road games. The MWC is looking into it. I'm sure it's tough to get good time slots on the CBS College Network.

There are a couple more videos of our favorite rival coach, the Great Pirate.

Also, here's the scoop on the Mangino rant I mentioned earlier this week from the 2004 game. I love the internet.

Sam Chi does a grat job aver at the BCSguru of breaking down the BCS contenders and pretenders. For example, who's played a tougher schedule, Alabama or Utah? You may be surprised. Of course, I don't think Utah will be playing Florida in a conf championship game.

Friday, November 14, 2008

Weekend Previews - Nov 15

This week is a bit of a downer after three weeks of top 10 teams playing one another. Let’s get to the previews:

Texas at Kansas – the Longhorns last visit to Lawrence was highlighted by two TDs in the last 4:11 by the Horns and Mangino claims of a conspiracy to get the Longhorns into the BCS. The Jayhawks are reeling from recent losses to OU, TT and NU, with the only salve being the victory against Kansas State. Texas is looking for “style points” a politically correct term to say, “hoping to mercilessly run up the score to woo voters” as the most difficult potion of their schedule is behind them and the Red Raiders and Sooners are playing more high profile games in the next two weeks. The Longhorns will be playing with their third string center, courtesy of injuries combined with Burk Burnett’s dismissal due to racial slurs on a facebook site. Kansas D isn’t even up to Big 12 standards. Prediction: Texas

Nebraska at Kansas State – these games were something to behold in the early days of the Big 12 North. Now, not so much. The first ten games in this series after the Big 12 started in 96 went 5-5, with Nebaska outscoring KSU 295-291. Nebraska outscored KSU 94-34 the last two years, and were so enamored with their coach they fired him. Kansas State hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record this year, and the Bugeaters are 6-4. Prediction: Nebraska

TAMU at Baylor – if Baylor beats TAMU, there’s one voter in the Big 12 that had it correct in the preseason, and the Bears would likely finish fifth in the South division. The Right Revered Robert had his worst game of the season last week against Texas. He’s likely to rebound against a Wrecking Crew defense that is only wrecking the alumni base. Against common foes (OU, OSU, ISU), Baylor has a scoring deficit of 61-93, while TAMU’s scoring deficit against those common foes is 105-157. Prediction: Baylor

Missouri at Iowa State – with a Tiger W and a Jayhawk loss to Texas, Missouri could clinch the Big 12 North prior to the Border War contest later this month. The Cyclones have lost their last eight. This one will be nine. Prediction: Mizzou

Boone State at Colorado – in one of the most misleading stats I’ve found so far, Colorado is 5-1 in home games this year, with the only loss being to Texas. Their last four victories at home have been by a combined margin of 15 points. Those Ws have been against juggernauts Eastern Washington, West Virginia, Kansas State and Iowa State. I’m sure the pundits at ESPN are calling this a trap game for OSU, as it lies between the Texas Tech loss last week and their Bedlam rivalry game the Saturday after Thanksgiving. Plus, they want you to tune in and watch. I still see the Pokes winning this one. Prediction: Boone State

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Wow, I'd have never thought of that

Catching up on google reader tonight. Seems Matt Hinton at Dr Saturday on Yahoo! and Tim Griffin at have both figured out that if OU beats two top 1 teams in the next three Saturdays, they might be ranked ahead of the Longhorns at season's end. Well, I thought that a week ago, I just have fewer readers. I mean a lot fewer.

Stolen Thoughts 11-12-08

Ya know how Boone State has the big ol' cards for defensive plays? Someone over on a TT board came up with a great version. If only OSU would have tried it.

Best. Leach story. Ever.

This is one of the plays of the year, courtesy of Todd Reesing.

Next week is a busy week for us here at've got the week before the biggest game in the history of mid-November 2008, leaving for vacation after the Dust Pirate game, extra special blogging coverage of said game, and now you've got this.

Venables to Clemson? Perhaps. Does this concern me? Sure. On the other hand, no one's interviewing Washington assistants for jobs this year.

Harold's Stores are closing. It's a sad day. I got to know Harold Powell while working at the Trails Golf Club during my collegiate years. He was a good dude.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

BCS Analysis

The BCS Guru has broken out the different scenarios for the Big 12 South. In the interest of efficiency, here's the link.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Big 12 POWs

From the LandThieves research department, while reviewing the Big 12 weekly press release.
  • Oklahoma has had one Big 12 offensive player of the week: Manual Johnson. We believe he's related to the Sooner player Manuel Johnson.
  • OU has had three defensive POWs, Lendy Holmes, Keenan Clayton and Travis Lewis.
  • Only two teams have had Special Teams POWs against OU: Jordan Shipley and Cyrus Gray.

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Obama fixes College Football

We read earlier this week that Obama has proposed an eight team playoff to determine the national champion. Since the idea was long on brevity and short on details, Joe Huff commissioned LandThieves political correspondent Julius Ceasar Watts to get the details from President elect Obama:

JCW: You mentioned in earlier speeches that you were in favor of reparations for Blacks. How do you see that playing out in your plan to change college football?

BO: the Historically Black Universities have been long denied a chance to compete on the highest levels of college sport. At the end of the regular season, the champions of the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference and the Southwest Athletic Conference will play for one of the eight slots in the playoffs.

JCW: President-elect Obama, you have indicated that America is in need of redistribution, and that this would be "chump change" to the college football elite. Do you also see that translating into your playoff?

BO: I certainly do. Many schools don't have the same opportunities to advance as the elite. As a result, I've formulated a 5 point plan to level the playing field.

  • Coaches that work long hours game planning and recruiting, come up with innovative ideas and climb the ladder of success will be allowed the opportunity to share their earnings with coaches that lack imagination and motivation to succeed. It's just unfair to expect all coaches to have the same level of work ethic.
  • At the end of the season, teams that have experienced successful seasons will have their skill position players redistributed to other schools that are less fortunate.
  • Players that have been gifted with exceptional speed and quickness will be required to wear weighted ankle bracelets, so that their brethren who weren't born with the same muscle twitch fibers can complete on the same playing field.
  • Players possessing remarkable strength will be required to tie one had behind their back, so that their physical advantage won't impair the progress of an individual who's hasn't worked as hard in the weight room.
  • The Big 10 network will be the only sports channel on the basic cable and dish packages. the MTN will be available to premium subscribers, and ESPN, ABC and CBS will only be available to federal workers and their families at no charge.

JCW: That seems a little concerning to me. By levelling the playing field like that, you're going to disincent achievement, and end up with an inferior product.

BO: My election was a mandate for change. This change to a level playing field may not be welcome to some. But make no mistake, it is change. Sacrifices must be made for the greater good. No one should have to watch Iowa State play Colorado in their present state.

Early Thoughts on TT

Man, they looked really good again on Saturday night. Tech's ability to run the ball and pass block effectively is impressive. You need to get pressure on Harrell, but between the safety routes, the pass blocking and the other short timing routes, you're very unlikely to get there.

The defense is the most impressive thing. For yours I've figured if Tech ever figured out how to play defense they would be awesome. Tech has held the Longhorns and Cowboys to their lowest scoring totals of the season. If they duplicate that feat against the Sooners, do you think the Sooners can hold them to below 35? Especially with two only two defensive ends and Austin Box as your middle lineback?

A potential chaotic scenario

Do you all remember last year's chaos, where Ohio State and LSU both lost their last home games, but went on to the BCS Championship game courtesy of several other folks losing? Well, here's a doozy for you...

Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma on Nov 22
Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State on Nov 29
Florida loses to Florida State in Tallahassee on Nov 29
Alabama loses to Florida in the SEC Championship game
Texas is upset by Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game
Penn State runs the table
USC and Oregon state win the remainder of their games in the Pac 10.

A verly likely result in this scenario:

Penn State plays USC for the national championship game. Oregon State goes to the Rose Bowl as the Pac 10 champion (presently with no BCS ranking whatsoever), and USC is the Pac 10 runner up. In spite of the season long dominance of the top 10 by SEC and Big 12 teams, no reps from those conferences make the Championship game.

TAMU Report

The Sooners exploded early on the Aggies, scoring 21 points before Cash Machine U could manage a first down.

The Sooners passing game today was hampered by the Aggie defense. Aggie D coordinator Joe Kines, long considered a genius in the game, appeared to allow the Sooners to run at will in an effort to dissuade the Sooners from passing. It worked. Sam Bradford was held below his average of 340 yards passing per game, but the Sooners did rush for 328 yards on 38 carries. Murray and Brown both ran for over 100 yards. Murray was ineffective on his last four carries, netting zero yards on those. However, since he had 123 yards on his first three carries, it all turned out alright.

The defense played well today. Jerrod Johnson was under duress during most of his time in the game. His favorite receiver appeared to be Johnny "Zits" McFarland, a third-year tuba player for the Aggie band. Johnny is best known for his precision route running, but today Johnson kept throwing passes deep into the stands in an effort to connect with McFarland on a longer play.

Hats off to Sr Aggie signal-caller Stephen McGee, who played quite a bit in the second half of his final game at Kyle Field. McGee was a warrior during his 4-year tenure with the Aggies, and all the editors here at LandThieves wish him well.

Aggie Kick returner Cyrus Gray had a big game today, returning 7 kicks for 261 yards, including one 98 yarder. The Sooners have now yielded three TDs and over 1800 yards on kick returns.

LandThieves awards Gas Cards to: the Offensive Line, DE Frank Alexander, LB Austin Box, and CB Dominique Franks. Alexander confused me several times. I'm used to seeing #84 as a receiver, Cheney, but Alexander was in the backfield all day for the Sooners. Box also played solidly yesterday, and survived a clean, violent block by Jorvorskie Lane to return to the game. Franks returned a fumble for a score, marking the second straight game he's scored for the defense.

LandThieves Stat of the Week - 1st Half Scoring

The Sooners have scored 355 points in the first half this year, an average of 35.5 points per game. Their first half scoring total alone would qualify them for 20th in scoring offense through yesterday's games.

There are only three games where the Sooners haven't scored enough points in the first half to win the game outright: Cincinnati, Texas and Kansas.

The Sooners have had at least one 20 point half in every game this year.

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Your BCS talking points

With the Harris poll and Coaches poll making up 2/3 of the BCS, the Sooners are likely going to have to overcome a) Texas Tech; b) the Joe Paterno lifetime achievement award; c) Oklahoma State; d) Harris and Coaches poll voters likely to vote Texas over Oklahoma b/c they beat them on the field. Alas, here are your talking points:

  • Oregon State only received 5 votes in the Harris poll even though they beat USC , who is presently ranked 7th.
  • Michigan State is ranked 18th and has lost to California, who is ranked 21st.
  • Florida is ranked ahead of Ole Miss, who beat them. Ole Miss receives no votes in the polls.
  • Penn State has the easiest schedule of the undefeated and one loss teams that are BCS automatic qualifiers.
  • If OU is to defeat Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, the Sooners will have gone 3-1 against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU and Texas, who are all ranked above Penn State's most formidable foe, Ohio State.
  • Assuming the two wins over OSU and TT, the voter's will like vote the Sooners ahead of Texas Tech, but behind UT, based upon head to head competition. I'm not sure how that makes sense with the 39-33 victory that TT had a week ago over UT.

Stolen Thoughts 11-08-08

Great video about look alike coaches, with a shout out to Disco Tech!

The Aggie Report looks into Bob Stoops with some political attack ads.

The Great Pirate's impact on the Big XII. And congratulations to the Red Raiders for not picking DickRod 8 years ago.

Another reason to root for the Sooners over Texas.

A pretty funny viewing guide for today's LSU-Bama game.

LSU Alabama Preview

Since Snoop Sogg is now and LSU fan, and the Bama-LSU game is one of the Sooners last few chances to have the Tide derailed, we asked Snoop to give us a game preview.

When Alabama has da ball: Alabama iz led - if I may use dat term - in da passing attack by John Peter Wilson. JPW iz passing stats would make him da 11th bomb qaruterback in da Big 12 in terms o' passing efficiency. John Peter Wilson'sfavorite throwing target iz Julio Jones, uh freshman sensation dat many delusional Sooner fans thought Bob would somehow be able ta pry from da grips o' da Alabama program. The Tide really ain't about passing, though, it'sabout running da ball an' defense. The Bama rushing attack iz 18th in da country an' ledy by by Glen Coffeee, who aveages almost 100 yards per game all by hizzelf. LSU actually has one o' da top (17th) rushing defenses in da country, so dis here will provide an interesting matchup between da squads. Scoring-wise, LSU has given up 50+ in two games dis here year (Florida an' Georgia), an' even allowed Auburn ta score over 20 tweny points. Advantage: Tide

When LSU has da ball: LSU relies heavily on da rushing o' Charles Scott, who iz 17th in da country averageing 111 yards per game. However, da Tide will be usin' da services o' mammoth lineman Terrence Cody ta clog da rushing lanes fo' da Tigers, so peep fo' Scott'saverage ta jet down in dis here game. The rushing attack overall iz 29th in da country. In da passing game, da Tigers iz led by Brenham, Texas native Jarrett Lee, who'sbeen uh bit turnover prone dis here year, throwing 10 picks versus only 12 TDs. Advantage: Tide

Special Teams: da Tiger return game iz led by Trinton Holliday, who's been much mo' effective on punt returns than smoke returns. The Bama smoke return defense iz only 80th (and da punt return defense iz 73rd) in da country, so Holliday may be able ta sneak one loose in kickoff returns as well. The LSU Ko return D iz bomb in da country, allowing an average o' only 16.4 yards per return. Being dat Alabama iz 103rd in KO returns dis here year. When LSU punts, da Bama return game looks ta thrive, bringing uh 31st ranked return unit in against da 109th reated return defense unit fo' LSU. Advantage: LSU

Overall: Alabama has da superior D, an' LSU has been impaired by losses ta da three Gs, graduation, grades an' greed. Oh, make dat 4, ganja. LSU had not taken care o' da football dis here year, an' I peep fo' Bama ta travel back ta Tuscaloosa wiff uh W as dey move on ta da SEC champsionship game all ye damn hood ratz.

Friday, November 7, 2008

Cash Machine U Preview

When TAMU has the ball - Jerrod Johnson seems to have figured it out behind center for the Aggies. In 3 of the last 4 games, he's completed 66+% of his passes. Johnson's favorite targest are Ryan Tannehill and Jeff Turner. Look for them to have nice stats against the Sooner D this week. The Sooners seem to have figured it out a little bit last week against the Huskers, but frankly the D is surviving on turnovers and 3rd down defense at this point. Johnson has not thrown an interception since the Okie State game on Oct 4, when he threw two pick sixes.

When OU has the ball - The Aggies struggle on D this year, ranking 104th in total defense in 102nd in scoring defense. They don't get much pressure on the passer and they haven't forced a lot of turnovers. This doesn't bode well against the Sooners, who've been quite explosive this year. DeMarco's running it well, and Sam's throwing it well. I think the Sooners will score a bit.

Overall - this game will be closer than you think. Odd stat for you: in the five games Stoops has coached against the Aggies in Norman, the average score is 47-12, with the Sooners winning all 5. The average score in Collge Station is 30-28, with the Sooners going 3-1. The largest MOV in the four games has been the 42-35 Sooner victory in 2004. I expect the Sooners to win this one as well, but I don't expect them to win by double digits. Final Score prediction: 42-35, Sooners.

Better Late than never

Here are your wknd previews:

Baylor at Texas - Baylor last won in Austin in 1991. Texas enjoyed the experience so much they fired David McWilliams at the end of the season. Mackovic survived his first loss to Baylor in 1992, but the second in 1997 in part contributed to his dismissal. With the stock market as it is, Texas can not afford to pay Mack off to ride into the sunset, so look for the officials to tilt the game in favor of the Longhorns. Prediction: Texas

Iowa State at Colorado - Prediction: Loss of conciousness.

Kansas at Nebraska - you have to turn the clock back to 1968 to find the last time the Jayhawks travelled to Lincoln and came out with a win. In the 19 games in Lincoln since then, the Bugeaters ahve outscored the Jayhawks 807-178. Mangino has begun to realize the steak of his labor there in Lawrence, however. Prediction: Kansas.

Kansas St at Missouri - look for Ron Prince's troops to rally around him and challenge the Tigers. This means Mizzou might score less than 50, the first time K sTate holds someone below 50 in four games. Prediction: Missouri.

Poor Man's Texas Tech at Texas Tech - who predicted these two teams would have two of the three best defenses in the conference this year? You? You're lying. OSU is 2nd in scoring D and TT is 3rd. They hold those same rankings for pass efficiency D. Oddly enough, I think those defenses are the key to the game, as the offenses are different, yet are wildy effective this year. Boone State will be looking for their first victory in Lubbock since Barry Switzer was in elementay school. Okie State has the edge on special teams, but I believe the other areas are even. I'm going to pick...the home team. Prediction: Texas Tech.


With Obama being elected and Ron Prince getting fired within 24 hours of one another, we are now being subjected to more articles about the dearth of black coaches in D-1A college football. I'll acknowledge the numbers don't add up in terms of the coaches. With coaches like John Blake and Ty Willingham in mind, I decided to chase down the win-loss record of black coaches, and compare it to the 3 year period before and after the coaches departure. With the assistance of an article I round on, and the coaching records and yearly totoals, I chased down the following data:

Black coaches W-L-T; 414-730-8; 36.28%
Record at school 3 years prior; 374-512-11; 42.31%
Record at school 3 years after; 263-362-6; 42.16%

I have no idea why the win percentage dropped when the black coach arrived and went up when he left. I don't think it makes sense. One could argue that the coach inherited a program that was on it's way down, and the coach didn't get a long enough chance to experience the fruits of his labor. I don't think black coaches are smarter or dumber than their white, Asian, Hispanic or any other color/ethnicity counterparts.

Best coaching performance: Turner Gill, Buffalo. The three year prior winning percentage was 9%, and he's improved it to 36.36% during his tenure. Turner has the Bulls one win away from being bowl eligible this year.

Worst coaching performance: John Blake, Oklahoma. In the three years prior to Blake's arrival, the Sooners went 20-14-1. His three year tenure was 12-22-0, and Stoops followed that with a three year period of 31-7-0. The 23% drop in winning percentage is the third largest drop, and the 46% improvement in winning percentage following his departure is by far the largest improvement a school experienced by changing coaches.

To date, Tyrone Willingham, Dennis Green and Ron Cooper are the three black coaches who have led more than one college program. Oddly, enough, John L. Smith succeeded Bobby Williams at Michigan State and Ron Cooper at Louisville and improved the records at both stops.

The above information in no way explains why Greg Robinson and Buddy Teevins have held head coaching positions.

I hope some day in the future, we can stop tracking how many coaches are of what ethnicity. I have probably hired 50+ people over my professional career, and I've never considered race, gender, religion or orientation in the hiring process. I haven't kept tabs on when I first hired an African-American, Asian, redneck or homosexual.

I would bet if you poll the fans of Kansas State or Tenneseee or Washington, and ask them what is important to them, race is far down the list. A college football fan wants someone that wins game, doesn't embarass the school and develops boys into men. Even in those three things, the emphasis is probably on wrong things. It's a lot harder to chase down graduation rates than win loss records.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Big 12 South Hopes

Earlier this week, I came across the BCS Guru site, written by Samuel Chi. I emailed Sam and posed the question: If the Dust Pirates beat Boone State, and the Sooners beat the Aggies, Dust Pirates and Boone State, will the Sooners be able to leapfrog the Horns in the BCS?

Following is Sam's response: "In your scenario, Texas will still end up representing the Big 12 South. A TT loss to OU would occur late in the season, dropping them lower in the standings, that leaves OU and UT, and most voters will opt for UT because they beat OU head-to-head. And also, in that scenario, UT would be the only one who didn't have a "home" game, for they defeated OU at a neutral site. Keep in mind that when it's that late in the season, most computer ranking will no longer matter - the human voters will decide everything. That is a major flaw in the current formula.

I think a one-loss Big 12 champ would be ranked behind Florida if it beats an unbeaten Bama in the SEC title game. That's why this week's LSU-Bama game should be a big deal to Big 12 fans. They want Bama to lose this week."

So, that was depressing. Unfortunately, Sam's response is consistent with what I heard from Brad Edwards on Mike and Mike in the morning on ESPN Radio on Wednesday.

I would agree with Sam that the humans have too much of a say in the process. However, during the latest rounds of resetting the formula, the computer must not have had good representation.

So, the Sooners need to root for the Les Miles coached Tigers (tough for me to do) and for the Baylor Bears and/or Texas Aggies to upset the Horns.

Ron Prince done

Ron Prince has been fired at K State. You can choose a lot of other different words if you like, but at the end of the day, Ron Prince wanted to stay but will not be allowed to.

Anywho, I thought this was an odd hire from the start...he was offensive coordinator for Al Groh's electric Virginia Cavalier squads earlier this decade. If you don't recall Al Groh having particularly successful seasons at Virginia, or them being particularly electric offensively, then you get my point. During his three years as offensive coordinator, the Wahoos went 8-5, 8-4 and 7-5 while averaging 28, 30 and 27 points per game.

I think K State has to be one of the more difficult places to succeed, being that 1) aside from Bill Snyder era, they've always been horrible; 2) facilites lag behind other schools; 3) expectations have been raised courtesy of the success achieved during the Snyder regime.

Various candidates I've read as mentioned are TCU coach Gary Patterson, Coach Fran (apparently used to assistant there), fomer CU and Northwestern coach Gary Barnett, and allegedly even a return by 69 year old Bill Snyder.

According to reports, the AD is looking for someone with previous head coaching experience, which would contradict the standard rumors of Brent Venables or Kevin Wilson from the Sooner staff.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Sooners to Play BYU In Dallas

I picked this up via the Wiz of Odds this morning. Allegedly BYU and Oklahoma are in discussions to play at Jerry World in Arlington. BYU has an immense Mormon contingent in the DFW area, adn the Sooners largest out of state alumni chapter is in North Texas.

According to, the 09 slate for the Sooners has a couple of holes in it, as only 10 games are presently slated. BYU would fill one of those holes. The Sooners presently only have 5 home games in the hopper as well, so look for us to add a cupcake later. Since the presently schedule includes Tulsa and at Miami- and if this rumor is true, BYU - I'm pretty certain we'll be adding someone from the Southern Conference or Sun Belt Conference by the time next August rolls around.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Reallocating the Electoral College

If you allocated electoral college votes based upon football seating capacity of Division 1-A football stadiums, Obama wins, 298-240, according to Associated Press results and projections.

Following are your President-elect for each conference, in the same manner:
ACC - Obama
Big 10 - Obama
Big 12 - McCain
Big East - Obama
Conf USA - McCain
Independent - Obama
MAC - Obama
MWC - Obama
Pac 10 - Obama
SEC - McCain
Sun Belt - McCain
WAC - Obama

No, I don't know why I did this calculation. Drowning my sorrow in data, perhaps.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Big 12 QB Play

In researching the previous post, and considering the present hype around Bradford, McCoy, Harrell, Daniel, Robinson, Reesing and Griffin, I decided I would do a little research on Big 12 QBs in the NFL.

Most Recent QB to Throw A TD Pass in the NFL (Year)
Baylor - Cody Carlson (1994)
Colorado - Kordell Stewart (2003)
Iowa State - Seneca Wallace and Sage Rosenfels (2008)
Kansas - Bobby Douglas (1978)
Kansas State - Michael Bishop (2000)
Missouri - Steve Pisarckiewicz (1979)
Nebraska - Bruce Mathison (1987)
Oklahoma - Jack Jacobs (1949)
Oklahoma State - Rusty Hilger (1988)
Texas - Vince Young (2008)
Texas A&M - Bucky Richardson (1994)
Texas Tech - Billy Joe Tolliver (1999)

Most Prolific TD Passer in NFL for each school (TDs)
Baylor - Cotton Davidson (73)
Colorado - Kordell Stewart (77)

Iowa State - Sage Rosenfels (27)
Kansas - John Hadl (244)
Kansas State - Steve Grogan (182)
Missouri - Steve Pisarckiewicz (3)
Nebraska - Vince Ferragamo (76)
Oklahoma - Jack Jacobs (27)

Oklahoma State - Rusty Hilger (11)
Texas - Bobby Layne (196)
Texas A&M - Gary Kubiak (14)
Texas Tech - Billy Joe Tolliver (59)

I ignored QBs who started at a Big 12 school and transferred out, like Karl Sweetan who threw 17 TDs in the NFL after playing at TAMU, then Wake Forest. Or that Aikman fella.

Best Wildcat Play yet

Here is the best Wildcat play I've seen. Jamaal Charles takes the snap and pitches - poorly, I might add - to former Sooner Mark Bradley. Bradley corrals the pitch and throws a strike to Chiefs QB Tyler Thigpen for the score. The play, a 37 yard scoring pass, was the longest TD pass thrown by a Sooner in the NFL since Joe Washington in 1978. On Sep 18, 1978, Washington threw a 54 yd TD pass. Washington added a 23 yard reception for a TD, and returned the kickoff in overtime 90 yards for the game winning score for one of the more phenomenal MNF performances in history.

Why the Cal Poly Mustangs should be ranked ahead of Southern Cal

I read several things on the intertubes last night that said, "no way UT should be ranked behind OU, because they beat them on the field". While that argument has some merit, I submit to you a couple of things:
1) Against the Red Raiders, TT lost Cosby and Orapko for the game, if not longer. I would have loved the Sooners to play UT without those players;
2) Cal Poly beat San Diego State who beat Idaho who beat New Mexico State who beat Nevada who beat UNLV who beat Arizona State who beat Stanford who beat Oregon State who beat USC. So you can't rank USC ahead of Cal Poly. No disrespect intended to Cal Poly, they're one of the better teams in the Great West Conference, if not 1-AA.

Special thanks to the College Football Vicotry Chain Linker for this analysis.

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Thoughts on the BCS

As opposed to some regurgitated analysis on the BCS, I present you this church sign.

What happens with a three way tie?

Several ifs and buts along the way, but let's pretend for a moment that a) UT wins out; b) TT's only loss is to OU. That would leave the Big 12 South in a three way tie for first, and the tie breaker goes to the highest ranking BCS team at that point. Link to rule here. The projects UT to fall to 5th, just ahead of Oklahoma.

So, here's the food for thought: let's pretend for a moment that OU beats two offensive powerhouses presently ranked in the top 8 in the next three games.

Let's look at UT's final games. Texas finishes with Baylor, at Kansas (ranked 26th in USA Today/Coaches poll) and home against TAMU. After a murderous last four weeks, their strenght of schedule will drop a bit as they play the fifth and sixth best teams in the South. Oklahoma, on the other hand, will play two teams in the top 8, after a date with TAMU this next weekend. So, look for Oklahoma's SOS to climb considerably in the computer generated polls.

From that, it'll be interesting to see how, in late November, the human polls will evaluate the OU-UT matchup that was nearly two months prior. I think in that instance the Sooners might prevail.

Of course, it could also be possible that Texas loses to Kansas, Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma after an upset loss on the road in Colorado. Then, you have a three way tie that is much less significant.

The real travesty is that with four teams in the top 8, only two will make their way into the BCS games. Of course, the only proper way to deal with that is for Big 12 teams 3-4 to absolutely destroy their foes in the Holiday and Cotton Bowls.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Holy Cow!

First of all, congratulations to the Texas Tech Red Raiders. That was a heck of a ball game.

The scene of TT kicking the ball from the 7 1/2 was one of the weirdest I've ever witnessed.

Crabtree is a beast. Harrell and Crabtree are special.

The Sooners have hope still for a championship.

Around the Big 12

Baylor nearly topples Missouri - The Tigers kicked a FG with about 3 minutes left and Robert Griffin threw his first pick of the gmae shortly thereafter, and the Tigers spoiled the Baylor homecoming, 31-28. Baylor's not winning these games yet, but they are competitive this year, and that's a huge step in the right direction. This was not a fluke, Missouir edged Baylor 29-26 on first downs and outgained them 490-438. The Bears controlled time of possession, running 83 plays and consuming 33:16 of clock.

Boone State rolls over Iowa State - Okie State rolled up 682 yards against the Cyclones. Zac Robinson was 18-27 or 395 yards and 5 TDs. The Pokes average 10.5 yards per play for the game.

Kansas throttles Kansas State - Jake Sharp ran for 182 yards, and Josh Freeman threw 3 picks, and the Jayhawks won, 52-21.

Cash Machine U beats Colorado, 24-17 - The Aggies exploded for 21 points in the third quarter, and Jerrod Johnson threw for 3 TDs. The Buffaloes were hampered by 3 turnovers, as they led most other statistical measures. Except for that pesky scoreboard thing.

More on the TT - UT game shortly.

Bugeaters Dominated

It was over when Dominquie Franks read the first Husker play, intercepted it and took it to the house.After running 11 offensive plays, the Sooners held a 28-0 margin. The Sooners were up 35-0 at the end of the first quarter, and held serve after that. Quentin Chaney had a big night receiving

Bradford got back on track this week against Nebraska, throwing 5 TDs for the fourth time this year. On the downside, Sam did throw a red zone pick; the pass was probably his worst throw of the night.

The defense played much better this week. The Sooners held the Huskers to 28 points, and 7 of those were meaningless points in the last minutes of the game. The only other team to hold the Huskers to less than 30 was Missouri. The Sooners did give up 400 yards, but again, many of those were meaningless, and the Sooners held a 4-1 turnover margin advantage.

Overall, definitely a good performace.

OU-NU Preview

When Oklahoma has the ball - Bradford is 3rd in the nation in pass efficiency and has been lighting it up this year. Demarco Murray seems to have found his groove a little bit running the ball as well. Nebraska is in the middle of the pack in defensive statistics. To their credit, they held the Red Raiders to only 31 points in Lubbock during regulation play, but that was in part to controlling time of possession for 40 minutes. I don't think the Bugeater D will be able to stop the Sooner O with any level of regularity.
When Oklahoma punts the ball - when this does happen, OU sucks at it this year. The Sooners are 106th in net punting. Our best punting play is when pressure on punter Mike Knall allows his to display his Academy Award level acting skills. Conversely, the Huskers are 14th in the nation in punt returns. Nate Swift has led the way, with 7 punt returns for 121 yards. It says something that Nebraska has only returned 13 punts so far.
When Oklahoma kicks the ball - I'll close my eyes again this week. As much practice as Ou gets kicking off, you'd think we'd be better at it. The Sooners are 109th in KO return defense. Only 11 of the 66 kicks have been toucbacks. Nebraska is 32nd in KO returns. Look for that to improve this week. Alternatively, here are the top 10 teams in KO return defense this year: FishEasters, LSU, UNC, La Tech, Troy, K State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Marshall ,Western Michigan and Temple.
When Nebraska has the ball - statistically, Joe Ganz is the 6th best passer in the Big 12, which ranks him 9th nationally, excluding the Big 12. The Bugeaters are 12th nationally in passing yards per game, and 29th in scoring offense. The rushing offense average 4.3 yards per game, which ranks 53rd. Marlon Lucky leads the way when the N rushes the ball. Nate Swift is Ganz's favorite receiving target, and has 100+ yards receiving in each of the last two games. As far as defense goes, the Sooners are now struggling in conference play, courtesy of the offenses in the conference and the inabilty to replace Reynolds in the middle of the D. Going into Texas, OU had the 1st ranked defense in passing efficiency and was 15th in scoring D. Three weeks later, the Sooners are 33rd in pass efficiency and 50th in scoring D. Nebraska should move the ball okay. The trick to the Sooners D is getting the offense to 3rd down. the Sooners continue to be solid defensively on 3rd down, ranking 6th in the nation.
When Nebraska punts the ball - the Bugeaters are even worse in net punting than the Sooners, ranking 118th. The Huskers are 76th in punt return D. The Sooners are 46th in punt returns, climbing the charts after Ryan Broyles return for a score last week. The Sooners have been rotating Franks, Iglesias and Broyles in there, but now taht Broyles is 12th in the nation, he may get back there all the time. It's rare this year that the Sooners find a team worse than them on special teams, but we may have found one in Nebraska.
When Nebraska kicks the ball, they are 77th in ko return defense. The Sooners are 14th in the natino in kickoff returns. DeMarco Murray and Juaquin Iglesias both average just over 24 yards per return.

In summation: 45-21, Sooners.