LandThieves CFB Poll Week 7

I've done my own computer rankings this year. They're a little late for this week, but here goes for the top 11:

1. Oklahoma - no, I did not rig the computer to do this. The model takes opponents' winning percentage as a strength of schedule measure, and the Sooners have played one of the tougher schedules this year. And they've played poorly against most of that schedule.
2. Missouri - this week will mark the first time in recorded history that 1 vs 2 in my poll have paired off. It makes me challenge the validity of my rankings. Conversely, Missouri has exceeded the average performance against it's opponents and has played a reasonably tough schedule.
3. Auburn - no surprise here. They've played well this year against a tough schedule.
4. Boise State - BSU's foes have a below 500 winning percentage. That's not going to get better. However, they beat their opponents by more than anyone else that plays them. This is a good team.
5. Ohio State - they have one loss, to the 25th rated team in my model, (Wisconsin). Wisconsin wins ugly.
6. Stanford - they should be ranked higher than this on quarterback tackling technique alone.
7. Michigan State - best fake field goal this year.
8. TCU - the opponents .500 winning percentage is hurting the Frogs. Upcoming games against Air Force and Utah should solidify this. Now they need to win the games.
9. Oklahoma State - the offense is surprisingly effective this year. Their defense? middle of the pack.
10. Oregon - I've watched a few of their games this year. They look awesome, so I think this is low. From a computer model perspective, their foes to date have been mediocre. Stanford is the only team with a winning record and New Mexico, Tennessee and Washington State have combined for three wins. As they go through the Pac 10, this will improve.
11. LSU - the computer does not factor in luck.

The LandThieves Preseason Top 10

Here's the LandThieves Preseason Top 10

1. Florida - the Gators return their all-world defense, tons of speed on offense and Thom Brennaman's man-crush as QB.
2. USC - some point to a new QB, a new LB corps and a trip to Columbus as roadblocks for the Trojans. Pete Carroll's Trojans last loss to a non-conference foe on the road - 2001. That and the soft Pac-10 give the Men of Troy the nod over the Horns.
3. Texas - If USC stumbles against some spare Pacific northwest team, the Horns will be there.
4. Oklahoma - Did you know Sam Bradford has four new O-linemen? I heard a rumor.
5. Alabama - Southlake Carroll Dragon Greg McElroy takes the helm for the Tide, and Terrence Codu returns on the D side. Stoops and Saban have been swapping stories on how to stop Florida. We'll see if it works.
6. Ohio State - a couple of slip ups and we can see THE Ohio State University challenge the Sooners mark for most BCS Championship games lost.
7. LSU - Les Miles' team has tons of talent, and won't lose 5 games this year.
8. TCU - didja notice pollsters never have non-BCS teams ranked high in their preseason polls. I'm a rebel. TCU is always well coached, has Sheriff Dillard returning and Justin Fuentes on staff. What more could you ask for? The Lizards have two BCS teams on their schedule, but run of the mill squads in Clemson and Virginia. Bad enough to be beaten, good enough to help the computer polls. Win those two road games and beat the Fightin Mormons on the road, and they just need to not screw up the game against SMU.
9. Penn State - JoePa continues to distance himself from Bobby Bowden, regardless of what the NCAA says.
10. Virginia Tech - I hardly know anything about this team, but refuse to acknowledge that Boone State is a top 10 team, or that Houston Nutt could coach a top-10 team.

LandThieves Poll #8

I realized I hadn't finished my poll for the week. I know both of you were dying to read it, so here goes.

1. Ohio State - the leader in the clubhouse.
2. West Virginia - I'm a big Pitt fan this week. Love Bill Fralic and Tony Dorsett.
3. Missouri - They're going down.
4. Virginia Tech -
5. Kansas - opponent's W/L ranking (45.7%) kills them in computer rankings.
6. Boston College - opponents W/L ranking (60.3%) helps there computer rankings. Who'da thunk Notre Dame would be the worst team on their schedule.
7. LSU - this is where computers don't do you justice. Two triple OT losses don't play well.
8. Georgia - in the BCS rankings, it's almost possible for them to back right into the champsionship game. Which is my favorite scenario.
9. Oklahoma - my evil plan for the Sooners to sneak back in to the BCS Championship game was foiled by Chan Gailey's Yellowjackets' loss to Georgia.
10. Southern Cal - playing really well now.
11. South Florida
12. Illinois
13. Florida
14. Clemson
15. Arizona State
16. Cincinnati
17. Michigan
18. Oregon
19. Northern Iowa - fear the Pirates.
20. Virginia
21. Auburn - with the attack dogs on the sideline, they should be higher ranked.
22. Rutgers
23. Texas - Longhorns tried to save Fran's job, but just like OU's loss to Cash Machine U in an attempt to save Slocum's job in '01, it didn't work.
24. Penn State
25. Connecticutt

LandThieves Poll #7

1. Ohio State - I would give you some insightful comments on the Ohio State victory over the Maize and Blue this weekend, but I lost consciousness watching it.
2. LSU - they should falter with Les secretly campaigning for the Michigan job.
3. West Virginia - Rich Rodriguez was up all night Saturday night, thanking God he didn't take the Alabama job.
4. Kansas - the best undefeated team in the country. Missouri is playing well, it should be a good game Saturday night. check your local listing.
5. Missouri - scores 38+ again.
6. Arizona State - Dirk Koetter is now cleaning the Boise State locker room.
7. Boston College - BC just keeps eaking out victories.
8. Virignia Tech - Hokies would be higher if not for that near miracle comeback by BC a few weeks ago.
9. Illinois - my favorite Big Ten team = any team that beats Ohio State
10. Georgia - Dawg fans are big fans of the Kentucky Wildcats this weekend. A KU victory gives Georgia a berth in the SEC championship game.
11. South Florida - don't look now, but South Florida is winning again.
12. Oregon - who's a better QB? Brady Leaf or Joey Halzle? Discuss.
13. Oklahoma - see above.
14. Florida - the Heisman tropy winner plays on this team.
15. Texas - if Boone State beats the Sooners, Texas will represent the Big 12 South in San Antonio for the Big 12 Championship.
16. Cincinnati
17. Virginia - eight victories by a total of 53 points (7 by 23) and a whupping of Miami-FL by 48. The battle with Va Tech should be a defensive snoozefest this weekend.
18. Clemson
19. Michigan
20. Southern Cal
21. Connecticutt - remember when beating Syracuse meant something.
22. Northern Iowa
23. Rutgers
24. Auburn
25. Penn State

LandThieves Poll #6

This week's poll has serious flaws, as you'll soon find out. I've got to work on my math.

1. Ohio State - according to the official LT scoring system, the Buckeyes maintain their number one ranking despite losing to Illinois. One of the anomalies here is that even though the Buckeye's have not played many folks with any sort of national rep, they MAC and 1-AA schools they played non conference have middle of the road records as well. So their strength of schedule is deceivingly high.
2. Oregon - the Ducks play at Arizona on Thursday night. I have to believe the HeadVisor is camping out in Tucson, giving his brother some help this week. He can coach the Sooners on Friday and Saturday. That loss to Cal is looking less impressive week by week.
3. LSU - the Tigers travel to Oxford to play Ole Miss this week. According to media reports, this game went into OT last year. Tough to imagine that happening again. Then again, if Les is stumping for the UM job all week, they could lay an egg anywhere along the way. If you don't believe me, dial up the video of the Oklahoma State - Ohio State Alamo Bowl when less was "coaching" his final game for the Cowboys.
4. Kansas - the Jayhawks beat someone we've heard of. Kansas is rising in the human polls after beating the Bugeaters (w/l record 5-6) and Boone State (5-5). Iowa State, winners of their last two, travel to Lawrence this week. Central Michigan may be the only team, outside of Mizzou, that Kansas plays this year that achieves 7 wins.
5. West Virginia - the Mountaineer defense is 4th in total defense, per the NCAA. That surprised me.
6. Arizona State - the Sun Devils squeak by the schizophrenic UCLA Bruins, and now they get the week off before spending Thanksgiving with the Men of Troy.
7. Oklahoma - playing "the B" hurts the ol' strength of schedule a bit. Playing in Lubbock can hurt the WL record a bit. I'm not surprised that OU is 9-1 at this point. I'm surprised the loss is to Colorado.
8. Illinois - the Zooker wins a big game. The Illini jumped from 18-8 this week.
9. Virginia Tech - how times have changed. Hokies last three games are FSU, Miami-FL, and Virginia. And Virginia is by far the toughest teams of those three.
10. Missouri - the Tigers travel to the Little Apple this week to play Willie and Friends. Who were slapped around by Nebraska last week.
11. Clemson - another team that's used to collapsing late hasn't yet.
12. Florida - Tim Tebow is awesome. Believe the hype.
13. South Florida - has played the second toughest sched of the top 25, next to the 12th ranked Gators.
14. Georgia - Auburn had allowed 44 points in the previous 5 games. Georgia got 45 in one.
15. Virginia - a tip of the hat to the Cavaliers for humiliating the Canes before the lights go out in the Orange Bowl.
16. Cincinnati - thanks for shutting up the "hey, look at the Huskies" folks.
17. Texas - they are due an arrest.
18. Southern Cal - are they still selling John David Booty for Heisman?
19. Michigan - the Badger flogging of the Wolverines put to bed that talk of "Michigan is one of the better teams in college fb right now".
20. Boston College - my, they've fallen.
21. Connecticut - nice performance against Cincinnati this week.
22. Northern Iowa
23. Penn State
24. Kentucky
25. Auburn

LandThieves Poll

A special thanks to my friends at Verizon, I still don't have internet at home. Enough complaining, onto the poll:

1. Ohio State – wins another ho hum game against a middle of the road Big 10 school. The Buckeyes have held every opponent underneath the opponent’s season scoring average.
2. Oregon – I keep waiting for them to fade and they haven’t yet. The opponent’s W/L % is higher than anyone else in the top 10.
3. LSU – Les Miles and the gang keeps squeaking by. Their defense gives up a lot of points.
4. Kansas – Kansas has given every opponent they’ve played this year their worst defeat of the season. It all boils down to the Missouri contest in Kansas City over Thanksgiving weekend for them.
5. Boston College – Florida State now has two road victories – at Colorado and at Chestnut Hill.
6. Oklahoma – thank goodness we're ranked ahead of Michigan. That Missouri wins keeps looking better. The Miami FL win keeps looking less impressive. And the CU loss continues to baffle most folks. Adding Baylor to the strength of schedule this week is going to hurt. If the Sooners keep winning out, that will solve itself in the Big 12 Championship game against a one-loss Mizzou team or an undefeated Jayhawk squad.
7. Michigan – The Big 10 reminds me of the mid 80s Big Eight where Oklahoma and Nebraska were really good, and everyone else was average at best. Only difference is there aren’t two good teams in the Big 10 right now. So it’s probably more like the ACC of the early 90s, where FSU went undefeated for several years.
8. West Virginia – Opponents won loss percentage barely better than Kansas. Dominated Rutgers this weekend, but other victories are: Western Michigan; Marshall; Maryland; East Carolina; Syracuse; and Mississippi State.
9. Arizona State – you didn’t expect the undefeated season to last, did you?
10. Connecticut – like Ohio State, they’ve held every opponent underneath its scoring average. Like Ohio State, watching their games is akin to watching paint dry.
11. Florida – the young defense is hurting the Gators. That and their opponents 68% won-loss percentage.
12. Virginia Tech – they’d be higher if not for the incredible comeback by BC two weeks ago. That being said, the Hokies boast victories over East Carolina; Ohio; William & Mary (William was tough but they were able to exploit Mary for a couple of scores); North Carolina; Clemson; Duke; Georgia Tech.
13. Missouri – the big matchup against the Shamanginos awaits. First they have to get past Cash Machine U.
14. Georgia – on a bit of hot streak after a bye week, beating Florida and Troy. Troy is undefeated in the SEC, losing to Arkansas, Florida and Georgia, but dominates the Sun Belt conference and Okie State.
15. Northern Iowa – you can’t stop them, you can only hope to contain them. Actually, they contain everyone they play.
16. Auburn – rumors persist about Tuberville to College Station. He does well at Ag schools with an inferiority complex, so it’s a logical fit.
17. South Florida – the glass slipper shattered, but that’s still an attractive high heel their wearing.
18. Illinois – Zook sure can recruit.
19. Texas – my predictions for a comeback W against Boone State were true.
20. Virginia – this team keeps barely squeaking by. They’ve lost to North Carolina State and Wyoming.
21. Clemson – Don't know nuttin' 'bout 'em.
22. Alabama – the Tide are two heartbreaking losses at home (Georgia in OT, LSU in final 3 minutes) removed from being a top 10 team.
23. Southern Cal – That run oriented domination of Nebraska in Lincoln a few weeks ago looks a lot different now, doesn’t it? They haven’t been on the ABC Sat. night in a few weeks, and they’re feelings are starting to hurt.
24. Yale – Don’t mess with the Ivy League.
25. Cincinnati – I have nothing to say here. I know it’s in Ohio.

Landthieves Poll #4

This week's LandThieves poll follows. I'm working on a few revisions to the math, but work and family are getting in the way of finalizing that. Enough about me, on to the poll...

1. Boston College - BC leap frogs Ohio St this week for #1. BC opponents SOS improved considerably this week; that's part playing Va Tech, part their past opponents winning. This week BC hosts the 'Noles, who many pundits keep expecting to break out of their funk sometime this year. These same pundits still expect Kathleen Turner to make another racy murder thriller, because of a scene in Body Heat. That movie was 26 freaking years ago, people! Let' s move on. BC will win again.
2. Ohio State - Ohio State continues it's roll against the mediocrity that is the Big 10. Wisconsin is 7-2. They are 1-2 on the road, with a victory against...UNLV. They lost by 31 to Penn St, who proved to be beatable at home by Ohio State.
3. Kansas - I haven't seen that much velour on a human being since...I give up. Kansas proves they are for real by winning at A&M. This also means they are better than the previous teams that couldn't win at College Station this year...Montana State; Fresno State; Louisiana-Monroe; Baylor; Oklahoma State.
4. Arizona State - with each passing week, it's getting tougher and tougher for Dirk Koetter to stump for a new head coaching job. The Sun Devils rally from a double digit deficit to hand Cal it's third straight loss. ASU finishes the year with at Oregon, at UCLA, hosting USC and hosting intrastate rival Arizona.
5. Oregon - the Ducks host the Sun Devils this weekend, so the 4 or 5 team is dropping in the coming week. Oregon finishes with ASU, Arizona, UCLA and intrastate rival Oregon State.
6. West Virginia -WVU beat up on Rutgers this weekend. When Pat White stays healthy, they are a tough team.
7. LSU - Les Miles travels to Tuscaloosa to battle his predecessor at LSU, Nick Saban. Oddly enough, there is an egomaniac convention in Tuscaloosa that weekend. Coincidence? I think not.
8. Oklahoma -Sooners were originally slated to play Boone State this weekend, but TV powers changed the game to Thanksgiving weekend. This provides time for the Cowboys to lose a couple more games and declare the Sooner game a "bowl game".
9. Michigan - Michigan has had two road games so far this year. They travel to Michigan State and Wisconsin the next two weeks.
10. South Florida - USF loses to UConn this week. But USF is clearly the better team. Why? because that's what my poll says.
11. Georgia - Georgia wins a huge rivalry game against the Gators. I expected the Dawgs to fold the tent after the Vol loss, but Saturday's win was a big one, even though Tebow had one hand tied behind his back.
12. Connecticut - I don't care what my computer says, I can't take this team seriously. They're just trying to build a football team the women's hoops team would be proud of.
13. Rutgers
14. Northern Iowa - narrow victory against Youngstown State this weekend keeps the top 20 ranking alive for the Panthers.
15. Florida - Tim Tebow is best one armed QB in the country.
16. Auburn
17. Clemson
18. Alabama - battles for lead in SEC West is in Tuscaloosa this weekend.
19. Missouri
20. Virginia Tech
21. Virginia - now with losses to national powers Wyoming and NC State
22. Wake Forest
23. Purdue
24. Texas - Longhorns finally overtake UMass.
25. South Carolina

Landthieves Poll #3

1. Ohio State - It's really tought to tell what the signature win for the Buckeyes is...Purue? Michgan St?
2. Boston College - UMass's 7-1 record inflates BC's opponent's record.
3. LSU - Big W against Auburn. :01 away from being loss.
4. Kansas - Colorado QB Dan Hawkins says the 'Hawks are the toughest team they've played this year.
5. Arizona State - Sun Devils play Jeff Tedford's Cal squad. Cash Machine U is salivating over luring Tedford or Tuberville to College Station. So both teams lost last week.
6. South Florida - falls a bit after losing to Rutgers.
7. Oregon - Belotti's boys play the Men of Troy Saturday. I hope it's on ABC on Saturday evening. It's been a couple of weeks since I've been able to swear at the Disney folks on Saturday night.
8. Oklahoma - Iowa State nearly caught the Sooners looking ahead to the bye week.
9. West Virginia - Mountaineers play Rutgers this Saturday.
10. Florida - that Tebow kid is pretty good. Rivalry game looms with Georgia this weekend.
11. Rutgers - see #9.
12. Michigan - Appalachian State now has two losses, also.
13. Virginia - they lost to Wyoming to start the season. Puzzling.
14. Northern Iowa - best team in Iowa this year. Glad the Sooners weren't playing them.
15. Missouri - a solid W against the Dust Pirates this past weekend.
16. Auburn - by far the best three loss team in the country.
17. South Carolina - Spurrier's team laid an egg against Vandy this week.
18. Virginia Tech - hosts Boston College this wknd. The upper crust Eastern school travels to Blacksburg, Virginia. There should be a reality show.
19. Connecticutt - don't know anything about them. Don't care.
20. Southern Cal - opponent's W/L % is 31.1
21. Yale - I gotta improve this poll.
22. Georgia - see 21
23. Wake Forest - best Baptist football school. But Vandy is gainin' on 'em.
24. Kentucky - hardest schedule of any of the top 25
25. Georgia Tech - with Tashard Choice's knee injury, this ranking is going down.

LandThieves Poll #2

1. South Florida - travels to Rutgers to play on a short week.
2. Ohio State - finishes out the "grueling" Big 10 season with juggernauts Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan. With the benefit of hindsight into the first six weeks, the most impressive game for this murders row was Illlinois' loss to Missouri.
3. LSU - losing to a one loss Kentucky team in triple OT doesn't hurt much. Tiger opponents have a 70% winning percentage.
4. Boston College - has the week off before travelling to Va Tech. Then they play four other shizo teams in the ACC: FSU, Maryland, Clemson, and Miami.
5. Arizona State - Dirk Koetter, you have a call from Lincoln, Nebraska on line 1.
6. Kansas - highly unlikely they hold here. Awful strength of schedule combined with pending games at Colorado and Boone State make this unlikely to stick.
7. Oregon - Best win so far has been: Houston, Michigan, Stanford. Discuss.
8. South Carolina - Lost to LSU; beat Kentucky.
9. Auburn - best two loss team in the country. Absolutely U-G-L-Y win over Arkansas Sat. night.
10. Oklahoma - pending dominating performance against Iowa State surely to impress voters. This will hurt the strength of schedule of the Sooners.
11. Kentucky
12. West Virginia
13. Michigan - I have to check my computer on this one. Yup, that's what calculates out.
14. Cincinnati
15. Rutgers
16. California
17. Florida
18. Virginia Tech
19. Illinois
20. Missouri
21. Virginia
22. Southern Cal - the win loss percentage of the Trojans foes is 36.4%. Hawaii and Troy are the only D-1 A teams that have had an easier schedule this year, to date.
23. Texas Tech
24. Northern Iowa - they are the best team in Iowa this year.
25. Connecticutt

For those of you wondering, UMass did fall out of the top 25. They remain ranked ahead of the Longhorns.

LandThieves Poll Announced

Following is my first poll of the season. It's a strictly a computer poll, using several factors, including w/l record, margin of victory, opponents w/l, opponents' opponents w/l, home and road records, and how often you've played on the road.

1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. South Florida
4. Boston College
5. Missouri
6. Arizona State
7. Cincinnati
8. Auburn
9. Illinois
10. California
11. Oregon
12. Kansas
13. Connecticut
14. South Carolina
15. West Virginia
16. Oklahoma
17. Florida
18. Kentucky
19. Southern Cal
20. Purdue
21. Virginia
22. Massachusetts
23. Michigan
24. Virginia Tech
25. Indiana

Self-analysis says UMass at 22 is a little wacky. Though if they run the spread offense, there's no doubt they could take the 23rd ranked Michigan Wolverines. I disagree with my Florida at 17 as well. Apparently my poll doesn't yet take into consideration losing to the #1 ranked team on the road in the last minute. Since Florida dropped in the human polls too, let's just acknowledge my poll is flawed, too. I have the Fisheaters 139th, right behind Denver Johnson's Illinois State Redbirds. That feels about right.