The Mountain West

The Mountain West is trying to wedge their way into the BCS. First thought is, you can't win if you don't enter. The second thought is they have as much chance of getting into the BCS as you do having your boss take less of a year-end bonus so you can have a larger one. His comment would be, "But if I do that, there's more for you and less for me. Why would I do that?"


My skepticism aside, let's consider the facts:


Here are Jeff Sagarin's ratings of the conferences:

2004:
1 - ACC
2 - Pac 10
3 - Independents
4 - Big 12
5 - Big 10
6 - SEC
7 - Mountain West
8 - Big East



2005:
1 - Big 10
2 -ACC
3 - Big 12
4 - Pac 10
5 - SEC
6 - Independents
7 - Big East
8 - Mountain West


2006:
1 - SEC
2 - Big East
3 - Pac 10
4 - ACC
5 - Big 10
6 - Big 12
7 - Mountain West
8 - Independents


2007:
1 - SEC
2 - Pac 10
3 - Big 12
4 -Big East
5 - ACC
6 - Big 10
7 - Mountain West
8 - Independents


2008:
1 - SEC
2 - Big 12
3 - ACC
4 - Pac 10
5 - Big East
6 - Big 10
7 - Mountain West
8 - Independents



Here are the highest ranked teams for each conference, 2004 - 2008

ACC - 7, 5, 23, 9, 17. Average = 12.2
Big East - 5 (Louisville, who was in CUSA at the time), 6, 23, 3, 26. Average = 12.6
Big 10 - 12, 3, 4, 11, 8. Average = 7.6
Big 12 - 3, 1, 16, 2, 3. Average = 5
Independents - 31, 8, 21, 74, 51. Average = 37
Mountain West - 4, 15, 13, 17, 5. Average = 10.8
Pac 10 - 1, 2, 2, 4, 2. Average = 2.2
SEC - 2, 7, 1, 1, 1. Average = 2.4

And the lowest ranked teams for each conference, 2004-2008
ACC - 90, 133, 153, 109, 57. Average = 108.4
Big East - 94 (Temple at 115 was dropped), 114, 73, 113, 104. Average = 99.6
Big 10 - 101, 96, 108, 123, 125. Average = 110.6
Big 12 - 103, 83, 94, 117, 114. Aveage = 102.2
Independents - 33, 86, 122 (165 ranked Temple now in MAC), 131, 161. Average = 106.6
Mountain West - 110, 128, 128, 120, 136. Average = 124.4
Pac 10 - 108, 81,124, 70, 138. Aveage = 104.2
SEC - 125, 107, 78, 80, 93. Average = 96.6

So, if you look at these facts with a slant toward rationalizing the MWC into the BCS, you have the following: in 4 of the past 5 years, the highest ranked Mountain West team has been higher ranked than at least one of the present BCS eligible conferences. The average ranking for the highest team in the MWC is considerably higher than the average ranking of the ACC or Big East representative, however Utah is the only MWC team to ever get a BCS bid.

On the low end of the totem pole is more of what plagues the MWC. The average lowest ranking is 124.4, and is significantly lower than the peer group that they seek.

Conversely, the BCS was designed to identify and reward top teams, not penalize crappy teams. Being that the Mountain West has consistently had a competitive top team in the rankings, you can't ignore the fact they deserve an automatic BCS bid just as much as Notre Dame, the ACC or Big East.

No More Crying

In the words of Mike Treps, Jiminy Christmas! Would you people stop crying on national TV? First, we have the kid losing it in the UT game a few years back, and another little nipper during another Sooner beatdown.

Now, the clarinet player cries and Fox captured it for us to be ridiculed on the interwebs for years to come. Look, we Sooners are now 0-5 in our last five BCS games, and 1-3 against Texas over that same period. We’ve got to handle losing a little bit better. You don’t have to like it, just do it withs some level of grace and/or class. So, here we have some simple rules for going to an OU bowl game or OU-Texas game…

1. Don’t cry during a football game loss. Really. This isn’t the SEC. Nobody died because of the game. The sun will come up tomorrow, 93% of you still have a job, and you have enough disposable income to attend this game – or were able to secure enough credit to go to the game, but don’t have the money? Perhaps that’s why you’re crying. Pardon me, I digress.
2. If you – or your blessed offspring - must violate rule #1, excuse yourself politely from your seat, go to the restroom, and have yourself a good cry. Since we’re likely not playing a Big 10 team (else we wouldn’t be losing, and this whole thing would be irrelevant), you’re unlikely to encounter a couple getting busy in a stall.

Enough already. Keep your chin up.

Congrats to the Gators

If you'd have told me before the game that we hold Florida to 24 points, I would have bet we win the game.

Missing those two scoring opportunities in the first half REALLY hurt the Sooners.

Tebow is a good QB, and I have a tremendous amount of respect for him. The Fox guys slobbering over him is sickening. I don't think he was playing defense for the Gators, and the defensive play bailed them out. Going into this game, the Sooners had 80 drives into red zone territory, and had come up with 76 scores. Tonight they went 2-4.

Five Things that could point to a Sooner Victory

1. Chris Brown runs effectively
2. Sam Bradford has time to throw
3. Sooner kick coverage allows no returns past midfield
4. Sooner D creates turnovers
5. Percy Harvin twists his ankle coming out of the locker room, loses his balance and falls down on Jeffrey Demps, breaking Demps’ leg.

The LandThieves BCS NCG Preview

Breaking away from poetry to write a bit more about this one.

Florida defense vs Oklahoma offense: there’s much ado about Florida’s speed, and their ability to cover, rush the passer, etc. Texas has speed and pass rush ability, as does TCU. This has proven out in pre and postseason nonconference games. While Texas didn’t knock anyone’s socks off last night in the Fiesta Bowl, it wasn’t the lack of speed that got them in trouble, it was power running and a slippery dual threat QB that kept TOSU in the game. In the TCU game, Bradford was 19-34 for 411 yards and 4 TDs. Granted, some of that was aided by two slips by TCU defenders. Let’s look at the Texas game, another game against a topflight D. In that game, Bradford was 28-39 for 387 yards, 5 TDs and 2 interceptions. The second interception was a throw into the end zone as time expired on a ten point loss. In the loss, Bradford averaged 10 yards per attempt and completed almost 72% of his passes. The question at hand will be Oklahoma’s ability to run the ball. Against UT, the Sooners compiled 13 total rushing yards, and lost the time of possession battle 37 to 23. OU has run the ball better since then, but really hasn’t played teams that were adept at stopping the run. Against TCU, the Sooners rushed for 36 yards. If Florida can stuff the run, and make OU a pass-only offense, then they will be able to take control of the game and get Bradford more on the run. Alternatively, looking at Florida’s stats tells you they are better pass defenders than run defenders. Teams were able to run the ball semi-well against the Gators gaining between 3-5 yards / carry in most games, but the Gator D shut down their passing games. Aside from the loss to Ole Miss and, the Gator’s foes were averaging 3-5 yards per attempt. If OU is getting 5 yards per attempt, that’s going to get you in trouble. It seems kind of simple to say, but if OU can run the ball effectively and make the Gators play run and pass defense, Bradford can lead the O to score some points. If Chris Brown and Mossis Madu can’t find anywhere to run, it’ll be a long night in Miami.

Oklahoma defense vs the Florida offense: I think this is a difficult matchup for the Sooners. The Sooner defensive stats are somewhat misleading, but make no mistake, this is not the 85 Sooners. The Gator strength is running the ball and having a balanced attack. The Gators have four backs with more than 50 carries that average more than 7 yards per carry. Speed is the name of the game, as 3 of the four weigh in at less than 200 pounds. That’s probably better for the Sooners, ad I don’t think they would matchup well vs a power running game. The Sooner D allowed only 2.4 yards per carry in the first half this year, which is pretty solid. The second half was a different story, with the Sooners allowing 4.05 yards per carry then. Why were the better against the run in the first half than the second? I don’t know. I know many of the games were over by then. Oklahoma has to shut down their running game, then get pressure on the passer. However, Tebow is difficult to bring down.
What the Sooner D lacked in domination was made up for in turnover margin. The Sooner D was excellent this year at third down conversions and creating turnovers. Why was that the case? One, I believe the Sooner D is quick, and most years have been ball-hawking types of units, and two, the proficiency of the Sooner offense forced the opponent to take chances and force the ball where they otherwise may not. On the contrary, Florida takes care of the ball well and is 13th in the country in third down conversions.

At the end of the day, the Sooners D performance in the last three BCS games has been atrocious, allowing 55, 43 and 48 points. And statistically, I believe those teams were better than this one. That leaves it up to the offense. I don’t think the Sooners can trade scores with the Gators, as I think the Gator D is more likely to stop the Sooner O than the Sooner D is likely to stop the Gator O. So, I’m not feeling very warm and fuzzy at this point.

How could I rationalize a surprise performance by the Sooner D?

• Frank Alexander. FA has been a beast since he returned from a stabbing after the UTC game in late August. His pressure from the defensive end spot could be critical.
• Experience. The Sooners had three first year starters in the LB this year. Now, it’s the end of the season, they’ve had a season of experience, and another month of practice at the end.
• Motivation. Stoops plays the underdog really well. All this talk about no defense, and the Sooners not being able to keep up with the Gators, will hopefully be a motivation factor to Stoops, Venables and the player to have a superior performance.

What do I think will happen? Florida victory, 45-35, and I'm hoping I'm wrong.

Common Foes

Going into the OU-Boone State game, the Horns and Sooners have played 5 common foes: TAMU, KU, Baylor, TT and one another. Texas is 4-1, with a scoring margin of 207-111. OU is 4-1 with a scoring margin of 260-142.

This will all shake itself out in the next 72 hours in one of the following scenarios: a) OU will beat OSU decisively, maintain a lead in the human polls and jump Texas enough in the computer polls to edge the Horns in the BCS; b) OU will edge OSU, will lose ground in the human polls and that will offset the gain in the computers and the Horns will take the Big 12 South; c) OSU will win, and Texas Tech makes the Big 12 South championship; d) Baylor upsets Texas Tech and hands the crown to Texas.

Texas Tech is a 21 point favorite, so d) is highly unlikely. OU is a 7 point favorite against the Pokes, so b) and c) are more likely than a). I'm still going with a Sooner blowout.

Why the Cal Poly Mustangs should be ranked ahead of Southern Cal

I read several things on the intertubes last night that said, "no way UT should be ranked behind OU, because they beat them on the field". While that argument has some merit, I submit to you a couple of things:
1) Against the Red Raiders, TT lost Cosby and Orapko for the game, if not longer. I would have loved the Sooners to play UT without those players;
2) Cal Poly beat San Diego State who beat Idaho who beat New Mexico State who beat Nevada who beat UNLV who beat Arizona State who beat Stanford who beat Oregon State who beat USC. So you can't rank USC ahead of Cal Poly. No disrespect intended to Cal Poly, they're one of the better teams in the Great West Conference, if not 1-AA.

Special thanks to the College Football Vicotry Chain Linker for this analysis.

Thoughts on the BCS

As opposed to some regurgitated analysis on the BCS, I present you this church sign.