Thursday, November 20, 2008

TT vs OU preview

Okay, here's my treatise on OU vs the Dust Pirates. The Sooners are a 6.5 points favorite, which seems a bit high to me. The over under on the game is 56 I believe, which seems low to me.

Coach Switzer has indicated that OU shoudl win, because they have better players. What Switzer is missing is that the game is a collection of players as a team, not individual players. He's also missing that TT is not just a scrappy bunch of ragtag rejects, but has some serious players. It's also about how the coaches play their strengths against the other teams weakness(es).

Anyway, here are some statisics that I submit for your review, which exclude the 1-aa games.

TT averages almost 47 points a game, while their foes have averaged surrendering 30.4 ppg and a standard deviation of 15.3. They typically exceed their foes average pts surrendered by 1 standard deviation. Since the Sooners average giving up 26 ppg with a standard deviation of 11.9, that would pt the predicted points given up as 38 points.

OU averages almost 51 points per game, while their foes have averaged surrendering 27.8 with a standard deviation of 14.6. The Sooners have typically exceeded their foes average points surrendered by 1.75 standard deviation. Since the Red Raiders average giving up 23 points per games with a standard deviation of 12, one could expect the Sooners to score around 44 points.

Isolating the games to be against 5 common foes, the Sooners averaged 53 points against defenses giving up 30. Their defense gave up 33 points to teams averaging 34 points.

The Dust Pirates average scoring 48 points versus the 30 surrendered. The Red Raider defense gave up 28 points per game.

So, in a nutshell, the Red Raider defense is better than the Sooner defense. The Sooner offense is better than the Red Raider O. The Sooners are at home.

So, with that analysis, I'll predict the score to be 45-38 Sooners.

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