My Late Thoughts on TCU to the Big East

First of all, let me say this is a no-brainer decision for TCU. The move to the Big East gets them to the big kids’ table of college football.


Second, Don Beebe should be fired. When the WTF Conference remained intact after the Bugeaters left for the Big 10 + 2 and Dan Hawkins Farewell Tour bolted for the Pac 10 + 2, there was some talk of inviting TCU, Air Force and/or Houston to round out the Big 12 again. Somewhere along the line, the Big 12 decided it was not in their member interests, presumably b/c with Texas and Texas A&M, you already control the DFW and Houston TV market much more so than with TCU and Houston. While the Denver market is big, CU football has rarely dominated the TV space there, unless it was the crime watch during the McCartney/ Neuheisel eras.


So, here’s the present state of the conference: 1) you have now if the flagship member of your conference struggling with a 5-7 record this year and offseason questions abound; 2) the South Division co-champion Oklahoma State Cowboys have 9,000 empty seats for an intrastate rivalry game for the South Division title in which they’re favored by 2 points; 3) you’ve just given eight other schools in the country every other year access to visit your state, weekly in season coverage by your local media of the conference, and television exposure at some level to the DFW area.


The Tulsa World did some fine work with the 2009 FBS rosters. 1,714 FBS recruits came from Texas. That’s 200 more than the next closest state, California. By being pissy, the Big 12 just invited Rutgers, Louisville, Pitt, West Virginia, Connecticut, Cincinnati, South Florida and Syracuse into the state to share the recruits. Let’s say each team nabs two recruits. It’s only sixteen, but which sixteen? Are they the top ones? Some of them will be. You’ve reduced your margin for error considerably by giving more ready access to this talent pool, and giving the talent pool visibility into those schools. Maybe the next Todd Reesing, spurned by Texas because they already had Colt McCoy and Vince Young, now goes to Syracuse. Texas made the right decision with pursuing McCoy obviously, but Reesing was one of the best QBs in Kansas history. The fact that you don’t know how the second best QB in Kansas history also means something, but that’s another column (it’s either Frank Seurer, Bobby Douglas or Nolan Cromwell). Maybe Drew Allen, spurned by Texas for Garrett Gilbert (looks good so far), is now in a Pitt jersey, suffering under the Wannstache as opposed to being a capable backup for the Sooners.


Back in the day before 85 scholarship limits, the Oklahomas of the world would stockpile players on their roster just to keep them from playing somewhere else. It was unfair to the player who’s languishing on the bench, but great for building a dynasty. See Jimmy Rogers…you never heard of him at OU, but he played five years of NFL ball. He was stuck behind Billy Sims, Kenny King, David Overstreet and Elvis Peacock, to name a few. Stockpiling TCU in the conference keeps others from those resources, and another quality football team in the mix doesn’t hurt.


Congratulations to TCU, and bring me the head of Don Beebe. Professionally speaking, of course.

The Train Wreck that is the Big 12 North

Big 12 North (MAC Southwest) standings through Oct 24:

Willie and Friends 3-1
Iowa State 2-2
Phog U 1-2
Bugeaters 1-2
Dan Hawkins Farewell Tour 1-2
Missouri 0-3

MAC Southwest future games:
Oklahoma beats Kansas State
Missouri beats Colorado
Nebraska beats Baylor
Tech beats Kansas
Texas A&M beats Iowa State
Texas A&M beats Colorado
Oklahoma State beats Iowa State
Kansas State beats Kansas
Missouri beats Baylor
Oklahoma beats Nebraska
Iowa State beats Colorado
Kansas beats Nebraska
Kansas State beats Missouri
Missouri beats Iowa State
Oklahoma State beats Colorado
Nebraska beats Kansas State
Texas beats Kansas
Nebraska beats Colorado
Kansas beats Missouri

If I'm correct on this (I'm 12-8 straight up from my beginning of the year predictions, so I'm probably not), this means K-State wins the MAC Southwest title with a 5-3 conference record and a 7-5 overall record. Records throughout the Big 12 north would be:

KSU 5-3 / 7-5
Neb 4-4 / 7-5
ISU 3-5 / 6-6
KU 3-5 / 7-5
Mizzou 3-5 / 7-5
CU - 1-7 / 2-10

Just a couple of weird bounces of the ball and you could have :
1) KSU go 4-4, win the North Division, lose the Big 12 championship game and be 6-7, and not eligible for a bowl;
2) Colorado could go 4-1 in remaining conference play and also be in the same situation
3) KSU, Nebraska and KU could all be in a 3 way tie atop the North with 4-4 conference records. Take the above predictions, and alter three games: have KSU a) lose to KU; b) lose to Mizzou and c) beat Nebraska and you're there. I have not idea what the tiebreaker scenario is then.
4) Missouri has 4 Big 12 north games and a clash against Baylor left. They could run the table and win the Big 12 North after starting out 0-3.

Houston in Big 12

With Houston going 2-0 vs the Big 12 this year, here's the last time each Big 12 team defeated two teams from the Big 12 South:

• Colorado - 2007 (includes upset of Oklahoma while a 20+ point underdog)
• Iowa State - 2005
• Kansas - 2007 (went 12-1, and did not face Oklahoma, Texas or Texas Tech). Only time they've accomplished in Big 12 history.
• Kansas State - 2007 (upset Texas)
• Missouri - 2007
• Nebraska - 2003
• Baylor - not since Big 12 formed in 1996
• Oklahoma - 2008
• Boone State - 2008
• Texas - 2008
• Texas A&M - 2007
• Texas Tech - 2008

The suprising part to me was that each Big 12 North team - outside of Nebraska - had done this farily recently. I did not expect that. I guess I have a short memory.

Big 12 Goes 9-1, Yippee

The Big 12 went 9-1 this week, as the conference proudly states.

As a conference, we went:

3-1 against Conference USA
3-0 against 1-AA teams
1-0 against the WAC
1-0 against Independents
1-0 against the Sunbelt Conference

Impressive.

Big 12 in Bowl Games

With 5 games under our belt, lets look at how the Big 12 teams have done so far.

• Missouri defeated Northwestern 30-23. Northwestern averaged 24 points per game this year, and defensively gave up 20 points per game on average. Missouri held the Wildcats below their average point total offensively, and scored more points than Northwestern normally surrenders.
• Kansas defeated Minnesota 42-21. Minnesota averaged giving up 24 points per game, and averaged scoring 23 points per game. So Kansas scored more than Minnesota usually surrendered, and held the Gophers to fewer points than they usually score.
• Oklahoma State lost to Oregon, 42-31. Oregon averaged 41.9 points/game coming into the contest, and OSU held them to their average. Oregon averaged giving up 28 points per game, and Boone State scored 31, so they exceeded the average.
• Nebraska defeated Clemson 26-21. Clemson averaged scoring 25 points per game and defensively averaged allowing 17 points per game. The Husker D held the Tigers to below their average on offense and the Bugeater O scored 26 points on Clemson, more than 50% over the average.
• Texas Tech lost to Mississippi 47-34. Well, this one blows my theory. The Red Raider D didn't show up for this one. Ole Miss averaged 30 points per game, but averaged relinquishing 18 points per game. Ole Miss allowed double their average points, but scored their second highest point total of the season.

In summation, in each instance above the Big 12 team scored more points against their bowl game foe than that team usually surrendered. In all but one of the games above, the Big 12 defense held the team to their season average or below.

Predictions - Week 8

• Baylor at Oklahoma State – Baylor trails in this series 12-14. Prior to the start of the Big XII, Baylor led the series 11-3. The last time Baylor won in Stillwater was 1939. The Cowboy loss drove a despondent Eddie Sutton to start drinking as an elementary student. He hasn’t stopped since. The Pokes appear to be the real deal after upsetting Missouri on the rode. Baylor is playing better than expected, and the Bears are hoping to catch the Cowboys basking in the glow of the Mizzou upset and looking forward to the Texas game next week. If this game was being televised by ESPN, they would tell you it’s a trap game. A trap game is a game in which one team has little chance of winning but the WWL hopes you tune in to watch anyway. An upset special is where a gambling “expert” tempts you to give away your money on an unlikely scenario where he looks like a genius if he’s right. I’m torn between whether this is an upset special, a trap game, or a whooping. Prediction: Boone State
• Missouri at Texas – Mizzou has beaten Texas once since 1917, during the Mackovic era of Texas football. The last time Missouri beat Texas in Austin, Grover Cleveland POTUS. In that game, the Horns were hampered by the loss of Colt Gardere Bowie, who was suspended for the game due to an unfortunate incident involving a cow stuck on a fence just north of campus. The charges were later dismissed, but not until the week following the loss to the Tigers. Missouri is coming off a loss to Oklahoma State, who allowed TAMU to score more points than Missouri. Let that sink in for a minute. Prediction: Texas
• Nebraska at Iowa State – The loser of this game has the inside track on finishing in the basement of the Big 12 North. These teams have played annually since 1896. Basically, they started the same year Missouri won in Austin. The Cyclones are 10-34-2 in the series at home. Will the team that nearly beat Kansas show up? Or the team that was drilled by Baylor? Inquiring minds want to know. This mind says it’s 10-35-2 after Saturday, and the Huskers cruise the west of the way toward a 5th place finish in the North. Prediction: Nebraska
• Texas Tech at Texas A&M – The Dust Pirates travel to College Station to play the Aggies, where they ask the question, “If This is Home, why does my home have bat residue all over it?” The Aggies can’t run, and can’t defend. RC Slocum was 7-7 against Texas Tech. Coach Fran was 1-5 against Tech. The recent games have been close in College Station and blowouts in Lubbock. I see the Red Raider making themselves at home with the Aggies and leaving undefeated. Prediction: Dust Pirates
• Kansas State at Colorado – I just realized the Wildcats play in Bill Snyder Family Stadium. I think this is because the only time his family saw him was when they came to the stadium. Ron Prince is 2-0 against Texas and Colorado. Hawkins is 2-0 against Texas Tech. Go figure. These teams are battling for third place in the Big 12 North. Hawkins benched his son at quarterback last week. Colorado is renaming the stadium Dan Hawkins Family Stadium, as he’s no longer welcome at his suburban Boulder home. Prediction: Colorado.

Big 12 Predictions - Week 6

Mizzou vs Poor Man's Texas Tech - We won't type this very often, but Oklahoma State's defense is the best defense Missouri has played against yet. I don't think it will matter, though. Both teams have scored a lot without the ball. Boone State has scored 4 special teams or defensive TDs, and Missouri has tallied 5. Mizzou is 2nd in the natinoa in scoring offense and 44th in scoring defense. the Pokes are 3rd in scoring offense in 54th in scoring defense. Okie State doesn't get much big-time exposure outside of Coach Hair Gel's youtube rant. This will give them a chance to show the country what they can do. Which is: a) score a bunch; b) allow others to score a bunch. Prediction: Missouri



Baylor hosts Baylor North - Iowa State has been rocked this week by second string QB Phillip Bates leaving the team. Iowa State is 93rd in rushing defense and 97th in pass efficiency defense. On the otherhand, they had Kansas on the ropes going into halftime last Saturday. Baylor had OU on the ropes as well, but they were ski ropes for waterskiing on the Brazos River. Robert Griffin will wow a few more folks today, and the Bears will win. Prediction: Baylor.

CU Later at Phog U - Kansas is 22-42-3 against the Buffaloes, but have won the last 2. I see this being three in a row. KU is better offensively and defensively, and their coach is a better sumo wrestler. The only chance the Buffaloes have is for the Jayhawks to be thrown off while searching for a new cheer during kickoffs. Prediction: Jayhawks


Cash Machine U hosts Willie and Friends - The most telltale sign of where the Aggie program is to date is that K State is 1-2 in it's last three games and has given up 133 points in those games, and they are favored by 3 while playing AT Kyle Field. That's amazing. Sherman seems to have awakened to the fact that it's a good idea to give Javorskie Lane the ball periodically. Kansas State is atrocious on run defense, allowing 300 yards in 2 separate games. The Dust Pirates even ran for 136, and North Texas ran for 102. TAMU should run the ball a lot and allow the QBs shoulders to heal. Prediction: Texas A&M



Nebraska travels to Lubbock to take on the Dust Pirates- this is Texas Tech's homecoming week. Normally you schedule an inferior foe for homecoming. I don't think the Huskers were homecoming fodder pre-Callahan. Bo may be reviving the program, but that sucker is still in intensive care presently. The bugeater D is 97th in pass yard per game and 79th in pass efficiency defense. They allowed Tyrod Taylor to go 9 for 15 a few weeks ago . Graham Harrell and his mates will have a field day.
Prediction: Texas Tech

Big 12 Previews, LandThieves Style

This year's previews will not feature "facts" or "statistics". You can get those on sundaymorningqb.com or spend $10 or so on Phil Steele, Athlon's or Street and Smith. If you want "features" you can wait for SI's preview.


We here at LandThieves will be doing previews with a motivational poster we've devised for the program. Occasionally, we'll submit the motivational poster to you, the reader (s?) to vote on.


For example, our first preview is for Iowa State. I project them to finish sixth in the Big 12 North. I thought about picking them seventh. I can't name a single player on Iowa State roster, and I'm too tired to research it. I think Bret Meyer completed his doctoral thesis on "Frustrating Your Head Coach, A Tutorial" and has moved on. Dwayne Crutchfield and Sage Rosensels are gone, too. Had I watched the game where the cyclones nearly beat the Sooners, I might be able to name an Iowa Stater.



Now, on to the Iowa State motivational poster. In researching good pics that either made me think of Iowa State or included Cyclone fans, I came up with these two.

Loyalty - I just felt for this guy. It seemed like a bad use of perfectly good body paint.

Effort - my step-mother-in-law rehabilitates opossums. She sometimes spends months rehabbing a rodent that has an average life span of 18 months. Seems to me like that typifies Iowa State. You can play football there, make some progress and go 6-6 or 7-5, but eventually Kansas, Missouri, Colorado or Nebraska (depending upon the season) is going to crush you.

I'm torn between the two. Cast your vote, and we'll proceed with the rest of our predictions when I come back from the promised land on Sunday.

Big 12 Preview - Haiku Style

To my loyal reader(s)? - stumbled across this today. A Big 12 Preview Haiku style. Working on my own preview, will have it coming out in the next few days.

Academic Progress, per the NCAA

APR for Big 12 Football, pulled from the Indianapolis Star

1. Oklahoma, Texas
2. Nebraska
3. Missouri
4. Baylor
5. Kansas State, Oklahoma State
6. Texas A&M
7. Colorado
8. Texas Tech
9. Iowa State
10. Kansas

Men's Basketball

1. Kansas
2. Oklahoma State, Missouri
3. Texas
4. Baylor, Texas Tech
5. Nebraska
6. Texas A&M
7. Oklahoma
8. Kansas State
9. Colorado
10. Iowa State

Kelvin Sampson phoned to offer his congratulation, but Joe Castiglione was unavailable.

Rooting Hierarchy

It's a slow newsday here at LandThieves. I could give you my breakdown of the Sweet 16, but you can read a couple thousand of those out there on the interwebs.

I could break down the women's tourney for you, but the limited readership is already at risk.

Yesterday, I was watching the Horns play Miami (FL), and was trying to figure out who to cheer for. Answer: Germans. No, seriously, the idea then came to me that as a public service to the Sooner faithful, I shall provide a breakdown of the pecking order of when to root for a conference rival. Please note that this analysis excludes the fact that a given order of standings in a sport that matters (Football, Mens BB) may override said pecking order. For example, as much as the Baylor Bears are a cute, lovable bunch, I'd throw them under the bus in a heartbeat if they were in the way of a Big 12 championship.

Now, on to the my rooting hierarchy:

1. Sooners – well, that’s obvious. What did you expect?
Other teams I care about:
2. Baylor – they’re fairly harmless, we’ve never lost to them in FB and haven't lost to them in Men’s BB since Dec 1977, my daughter wishes to go there, I've been abig Art Briles fan since he coached at Stephenville H.S. and I have several close friends have Baylor ties. To me, it’s like rooting for the Chicago Cubs. Except the Cubs did win something in 1918. If they got good at one of the two favored sports, I might have to take them down a notch or two.
3. Nebraska – in the days o’ the Big 8, the OU-Nebraska rivalry was always fairly classy. There’s a mutual respect there. Except for that Bill Callahan "----ing hillbillies" thing. I think we can now unite with Huskers about our dislike for Callahan, since he drove the FB program into the ditch and . When they were beating the snot out of us during the desert era, the Husker fans that had taken over the section my season tix were in were fairly gracious victors.
4. Texas Tech – I’m a Leach fan; my boss is a Tech alum; when Bob Knight retired they probably jumped from 5 to 4 here. In FB, the offense is fun to watch.
5. Texas A&M – I have some good friends that went there, and in my Big 8 school days, I never gave them a second thought. We were brethren in that Joe Paterno seemed to want to outlast Switzer and Sherrill. There’s a lot to like about TAMU, but the traditions are just a little bit too weird for my taste. Reveille is a perfect example…somebody ran over a dog 70 years ago and it survived. I had a dog that was run over and survived, too. His name was Gomer. I didn’t petition the U of O to make a shrine, bury him near the stadium or anything. I was just glad my dog lived. I moved on.

Indifference:
6. Kansas – I could rank 6-9 anywhere in those slots and not upset myself too much here. Kansas probably gets the nod as the 6th seed due to 2 factors; 1) they are good at basketball, and typically play it up-tempo, which I prefer; and 2) Shamangino is the head coach.
7. Kansas State – They should probably be lower, since they’ve beaten us a couple of times in big FB games, but overall I’m fairly indifferent towards them.
8. Missouri – if I would’ve done this 20 years ago, they woulda been lower. The Antlers were vicious. I hated Jon Sundvold and Steve Stipanovich. Norm Stewart-Billy Tubbs was a good (but clean) rivalry. The football team still hasn’t recovered from canning Warren Powers. The basketball team hasn't recovered from not canning Quinn Snyder soon enough.
9. Iowa State – totally indifferent to these fine folks. The Johnny Orr and Larry Eusatchy years were good basketball watching times. I was able to get over David Archer and Dwayne Crutchfield’s brief dominance of the Sooners in the 80s to not bump them to the

Take Al-Qaeda and give the points
10. Colorado Buffaloes – I just always thought their fans were jerks when I encountered them. I’m sure many a person could come up with an example of the Sooner fans being less than favorable ambassadors, and they would be valid. This is just from my perspective. Also, in the late 80s, I grew sick of the canonization of Sal Aunese. While I was sad for him and his friends and family, the media and football team at the time seemed to make him out to be a great hero. If memory serves me correctly, he got the coach’s daughter pregnant while he was playing at CU. While that does demonstrate an interesting combination of bravado and indiscretion, I’m not sure that makes him a hero.
11. Texas Longhorns – I would’ve had them at 12, but in the Rose Bowl a couple of years ago, I found myself rooting for the Longhorns instead of the USC “we’re about to win three NC’s in a row – oh, just one” Trojans. I found that night that Vince Young was much more fun to watch if you rooted for him. Also, I must admit I’ve got a fair amount of respect for Mack Brown. Nonetheless, most of the time when they play another hated rival, I just root for some sort of stadium implosion.
12. Oklahoma State Cowboys – see me wearing Cowpokes paraphernalia and I’m either drugged or there are icicles in h-e-double toothpicks. Prior to 2001, I would have ranked them middle of the pack…they were that cute instate rival that didn’t really pose a threat to anyone. Probably much like Ohio State views Ohio, Cincinnati, Akron or Toledo. Then, I was a good son-in-law and invited my stepmother-in-law to the OU-OSU game. Little did I know that Nate Hybl would play so horribly (22-48 for 220 yards, three picks and seven sacks), that Roy Williams stop playing defense, and Derrick Strait would mistime a jump. The S-M-I-L made us stay until the Aggie alma mater song – or whatever the !@#* they call it – was sung. I think if the Sooners were playing Al-Qaeda, she’d take Al-Qaeda and give the points.

Player of the Year

Today I got my SI for the week. A special shout out to the USPS for deliverying it four days late. Anywho, the cover proclaims Tyler Hansbrough as the POY this year. What a crock. No disrespect to Mr. Hansbrough, who is a great player, but let's compare him to Kansas State's Michael Beasley:

PPG: Beasley 26.5 v 23.1
REB: Beasley 12.5 v 10.5
AST: Beasley 1.2 v 0.9
STL: Hansbrough 1.5 v 1.3
BLK: Beasley 1.7 to 0.3
FG%: Hansbrough .543 v .539
FT%: Hansbrough .813 v .770
3P%: Beasley .395 to .000

In the categories that Beasley wins, he dominates. When Hansbrough wins the comparison, it's by a whisker, with the exception of FT%. When you look at other aspects, North Carolina scores more per game, but Tyler scores less. North Carolina rebounds better, but Tyler rebounds less. Beasley, at 6-10, accounts for almost 1/2 his team's blocked shots. Hansbrough, at 6-9, accounts for less than 10%.

Another component to consider is the team around him. Beasley has Bill Walker as a fellow Rivals 150 top recruit on the Wildcat roster. Hansbrough has 9 other top 150 recruits alongside him. Aside from Beasley, two other Wildcats average double digits. The Tarheels have 3 others averaging 12 points or more.

People mention the intangibles that Hansbrough brings to the team. I don't doubt his attitude, his grit, his effort. Conversely, it's not like Beasley is Stephon Marbury. I've watched a few games and he's a terrific competitor and you don't see him showing up his teammates or anything.

When playing Kansas State plays, you know you have to stop Beasley, and probably Walker. When playing UNC, you have to stop Hansbrough, Ellington, Lawson and Green.

I could probably go on, but I'd be spending more time on a foe's player. I've just been really impressed by Beasley. If we spend too much time praising opponents instead of making fun of them, it just not riiiight.

Big12 NonConf Games, Sep 8

TCU at Texas - Oh, how I'd love for the Froggies to beat UT in this one. This one is a tough one to predict, IMO. TCU is going to be tough on D, and the Horns should be fabulous on O. Texas lost three of their four leading tacklers from a defense that struglled last year, but TCU is breaking in a new QB. Prediction: Texas. (Sorry, Chuck.)
Miami FL at OU - I'm sure we'll analyze this one further in the coming weeks, but for now I'll keep it short. Prediction: Sooners
Fresno St at Cash Machine U - Pat Hill's Fresno State team was down this past year but I don't expect he'll be down two years in a row. Coach Fran seems a bit feisty this year in preseason, and I believe it's because he is truly confident in his team this year. McGee is in the top 2 QBs in the Big12, and CMU has a ton of talent at RB. If the D makes progress this year, this one is an Aggie victory in a walk. Prediction: Aggies
CU Later at Arizona State - The Dennis Erickson era starts at Tempe this year, and Dan Hawkins has a brutal non conference schedule this year. Dan has returned to the Hawkins bedroom since naming his son starting QB this year. ASU finished the year a mess. If Erickson can get Rudy Carpenter's head on straight, ASU could be pretty good this year. Prediction: Sun Devils

Big 12 NonConf Games, Sep 1 Predictions

Last year the Big 12 stunk in premier non-conference games. The Sooners "lost" the Oregon game, and were beaten by Boise St. The Bugeaters lost to Southern Cal. Willie and Friends and Cash Machine U laid eggs in their bowl games. Texas lost to Ohio St and looked pedestrian against Iowa. Tx Tech lost to TCU, and Cash Machine U barely beat Army. Kansas lost to Toledo. For the Big 12 to return to prominence this year, the games below are the games most important for the conference to re-establish themselves as a top BCS conference.


We'll start the posting with Sep 1. Cupcake games are not previewed, here, with limited exceptions.


Boone State at Georgia - Boone St is a darling pick of many pundits for the Big 12 South. Admittedly, scoring 34 points against the Tide is impressive. I'll be surprised if the Pokes can prevail in Athens against the top 15 rated Bulldogs. I anticipate Georgia to be considerably improved this year as Stafford develops as a QB under Mark Richt. Prediction: Georgia.


K State at Auburn - Kansas State struggled last year in their opener against the Illinois State Redbirds, needing a punt return for TD and a defensive score to overtake ISU. This opener should be a little tougher. The Coach formerly known as Prince has a lot to prove this year, as they had a high point of upsetting Texas, but low points in struggling against Illinois State and being blown out by Rutgers in their bowl game. Auburn has only 12 returning starters this year, so this is a huge change to have a win against a credible opponent that may be down this year. Prediction: Auburn

Later in the weekend we'll take a peek at the other premier nonconference matchups in September.