Thoughts on Rival QBs

Two great QBs in the Big 12 played their last regular season game this weekend, Colt McCoy and Zac Robinson. I would be remiss if I didn't say a few words about each:

Colt is a Texas QB that's tough not to love. I would have never thought from seeing this kid his freshman year he would be the winningest QB in NCAA history. Even though he's 3-1 against my Sooners, I've enjoyed seeing him grow as a leader on and off the field for the Longhorns. Colt's a great QB, fine ambassador for his university and a great witness for his Savior.

Zac Robinson, OSU's QB, has been fun to watch as well. Another kid that didn't look like much, but goes out there and gets the job done. Zac threw it well and ran it well, and was a heck of a competitor. His injury against Tech two weeks ago limited him in his last game today, and even as an opposing fan, I'm sad to see him go out on such a sour note, when he was clearly dinged up. Zac will finish his career as the leading passer and leader in total offense at Oklahoma State. He's always been fun to watch, and his elusiveness as a scrambler was fun to watch - when it was against someone else.

To each of you, I tip my cap, and wish you well in your future endeavors.

O or Zero

A personal blogging highlight of last week was being blasted on orangepower.com for analyzing the Pokes BCS chances. Fortunately, so quickly after the game, we have a hat that commemorates the BCS chances of Boone State.

I'm not sure if the zero on this hat is for the a) chances Oklahoma State now gets BCS bid; b) number of wins by Coach Hair Gel against OU; c) number of points scored today; d) number of third downs converted today, or e) all of the above.

There's another thread on orangepower.com this evening called, "the gap is closing" to which I say, "Be sure and balance out your register and clock out before you leave."

Sooners Nine Point Favorites

Saw in my local paper, which provides betting lines, that the Sooners are a 9 point favorite. Checked it online b/c figured it was a typo. Nope. Here are some factoids for you:

• Sooners are 1-5 against teams with winning records. The victory: 65-10 against 6-5 Texas A&M.
• The Sooners are 0-3 against ranked opponents.
• Oklahoma State is 4th in the country in rushing defense. They allow fewer yards per carry than Nebraska.
• Oklahoma State is the 96th rated passing defense in terms of yard per game. This is mainly b/c their foes abandon the run early. They are 19th in yards per attempt and 30th in passer rating.
• The Sooners will start their 9th different offensive line grouping in 12 games.

This is mitigated by...

• Landry Jones stats at home: 93 of 145 for 1308 yards and 18 TDs. He is the 4th best passer in the country at home. As a side note, he's the 96th rated passer on the road.
• Stoops' squads are 65-2 in Norman.
• Coach Hair Gel is 4-0 - I mean 0-4 - vs OU,
• I've never put anything beyond lunch money on a game in my life.

Will Boone State really get a BCS bid

Much speculation going on about Oklahoma State going to a BCS game this year. I am interested to see how this plays out. First of all, the BCS selection isn't about field performance, it's about performance in the bleachers, so to speak. Can you fill the seats? Can you make the seat guarantees? The only way Okie State does this is through their owner/GM, Boone Pickens. Let's take a look at OSU attendance this year, in a stadium that is listed with a capacity of 60,218

Georgia - 53,012
Houston - 50,875
Rice - 51,083
Grambling State - 56,901
Missouri - 55,752
Texas - 58,516
Texas Tech - 52,811
Colorado - 50,080

Ponder for a moment that the second best attended game this year was Grambling State, the only 1-AA team on the schedule.

The Pokes also returned tickets to Oklahoma this year for the Bedlam game. The Sooners are in the middle of their most depressing season of the Stoops reign, the Hair Gels are having an historic season, and they can't even sell the visitor ticket allotment for their most hated rival? But they're going to go to a BCS game? This smells like Boone either buying his way into the game, or the Big 12 lobbying hard for that second $17 million bowl payout. Or, perhaps it makes sense.

With the extra BCS game added, the "equal access" provided by adding a fifth BCS game really has provided additional access to the automatic qualifiers. There are 10 BCS bowl slots, and six automatic qualifiers. A conference cannot have more than 2 BCS participants in a season. Ergo, if you give one slot to TCU or Boise State, you've got nine slots to dole out. You'll have three automatic qualifying conferences with two slots and three with only one.

• Iowa as a second Big 10 school is a no-brainer. They filled their 70,585 seat stadium to capacity 6 of 7 home games this year, and are highly ranked.
• The SEC runnerup is a no-brainer. Bama and Florida travel well, the trip will be to the Sugar Bowl, and it's a top 5 team.
• The third slot is then up for grabs between a) Boise State; b) a second Big 12 team; c) a second ACC team (Georgia Tech or Clemson); d) second Big East team (Cincinnati or Pitt); e) second Pac 10 team (loser between Oregon-Oregon State. If Oregon wins, Oregon State is not getting a second Pac 10 bid as an 8-4 team, and I think it's unlikely USC jumps in as a 9-3 team.

If Oregon loses to Oregon State, the Beavers go to the Rose Bowl and the BCS suits would then have to contemplate 10-2 Oregon vs 10-2 Oklahoma State.

IF OSU beats OU this weekend to finish 10-2 and 2nd in the Big 12 South, and Oregon beats Oregon State, there's really just a couple of scenarios that make sense: a) if Texas beats Cash Machine U and Nebraska, they will play in the BCSNCG and Oklahoma State will play Texas Christian in the Fiesta Bowl; b) Texas loses the Big 12 championship game, Nebraska goes to the Fiesta Bowl and Texas goes as an at-large team; If c) happens, where Texas loses to A&M bit wins the Big 12 the following week, I have no idea what happens.

Boise State playing TCU in the Fiesta Bowl doesn't make any sense. The David vs David story line doesn't play well. They played in the Poinsettia Bowl last year. Cincinnati backing into a BCS bid as a Big East second representative doesn't make sense.

As a result, I have to resign myself to the fact that if OSU beats Oklahoma this weekend, the Pokes are going to the Fiesta Bowl and we are going to the freaking Sun Bowl.

The Sooners have to keep the nation's longest home winning streak alive. It's for the kids.

OSU vs Texas

Many folks out there are telling us that Oklahoma State really has a chance against Texas this week. After all, the game is being played in Stillwater! And it was really close last year! Let's take a step back and look at some things we call "facts" here at LandThieves:

a) Mack Brown is undefeated against Oklahoma State
b) During Brown's tenure at Texas, the Horns have outscored the Pokes 216-125 in 6 games in Austin.
c) During that same period, over 5 games, it's 219-117 in Stillwater. So according to my calculations, Texas wins by 15 points in Austin, but when the Pokes have home field advantage it's only 21 points?
d) Boone State has the 36 ranked scoring defense in the country. Texas has the 9th ranked scoring defense.
e) Texas has the #1 ranked scoring offense in the country. Oklahoma State has the 6th ranked scoring offense.
f) based upon won-loss record of current foes, the Pokes have played the 64th toughest schedule in the country. On the same criteria, the Horns have played the 40th toughest schedule.
g) according to Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings, Texas has played the 52nd toughest schedule, and Oklahoma State's schedule is 100th toughest.

So, in a nutshell, in this series during the past 11 years, 1) the home field advantage has meant nothing for the Pokes; 2) Texas is a better team statistically; 3) Texas has superior performance in spite of playing a tougher schedule to date.

All this analysis could go out the window considering the game is played by 20 year olds that occasionally get distracted with wine, women and schoolwork.

Will Georgia Take Over Boone Pickens Stadium

interesting article on the lenghts Georgia fans go to get tickets to watch their Bulldogs play. We'll see how the Pokes represent themselves.

The End is Near

Got my Sports Illustrated in the mail today. Today is a big day in Poke history. Why, do you ask? It's the first time the Oklahoma State Cowboys made it on the cover of SI. Ever.

Let's hope it's a cover jinx.

To add to my misery, my ESPN The Magazine showed up today as well. Cover? My Little Pony.

I'll take the end of year covers over the beginning of year covers.

Big 12 Preview - Boone State

Oklahoma State – It's been an interesting offseason for the Pokes.First of all, Holder suspends the building program because Boone's investments have gone in the crapper; then the Pokes start getting a lot of coverage as a team to watch this year…they tie Ole Miss for the “sleeper picked so much to be a sleeper so they’re really not a sleeper”.

Zac Robinson is back for his senior year, and Dez Bryant returns as a junior. Coach Hair Gel is going to call is own plays again this year, and the Pokes added alumnus Bill Young as defensive coordinator this year. Young also coached for the Sooners during the Blake era, but was let go as Blake “brought his own people in”. Young was d-coordinator under Shamangino at Kansas during their resurgence, and is well-respected in the game. It remains to be seen whether that will translate into success for the Pokes; they haven’t had good defenses there since – well, I can’t remember when. Probably when Jimmy Johnson was coach.

Boone’s boys start off the year hosting Georgia, who will be solid, but lost Stafford and Moreno to the NFL this off-season. It will be the first non-conference game against a BCS foe in Stillwater since 2002. If they pull off the W (it would be the first non-conf W against BCS conf foe since a 1998 W vs Miss St), they’ll be poised to be 7-0 and hosting Texas. I don’t see them beating the Dawgs or the Horns, nor the Sooners at home, so it’ll be 9-3 and on to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl.

Education: If Cowboys go 9-3 in the regular season and win their bowl game, it will be the first time the Pokes finished with fewer than 4 losses since 1988. Gundy would finish the season with 37 wins, and rank as the 3rd winningest head coach in the 109 year history of the program.

TBP's Book - the Sequel

Well, Boone has bailed out his university. Per the espn.com article I'm linking, the initial $165 million that Boone gave to Oklahoma State(and that they gave back to him immediately to invest through a hedge fund) was down to $125 million - from a high of $407,000,000 - when TBP gave it back recently. Pickens announced on Monday he is giving an additional $60 million to the univeristy, which was presumably made by short selling the investments in the hedge fund.

Boone's sequel to his best selling book will be available at this blog as an e book for a short time only.

Note to lawyers. The last paragraph and the picture at left are a joke. Get a life. Only 20-30 people read this anyway.

Polls - the problem

Here's the problem with the polls. Take our brethren to the immediate north, Oklahoma State. Reeling from a near bankrupt investment fund, travelling to Austin, where when they last won they were Oklahoma A&M and we were in World War II, they lost a game 28-24 to the #1 ranked Texas Longhorns. So naturally, you'd think they would solidify their #8 ranking in the coaches poll and 8th ranking in the Harris polls.


Nope. They fell. In the coaches poll, the Pokes fell from #8 to #10. Utah leap frogged 'em. Utah has an impressive victory over...no one. They had the week off. So Okie State loses by 4 to the top ranked team in the country, and these clowns look at that and say, "Wow, i forgot about Utah. They beat Oregon State a couple of weeks ago."Georgia leapfrogged Boone's team as well, but at least they had a decisive victory over a well regarded LSU team.


In the Harris poll, the Pokes had a 49 point lead over Georgia for the 8th spot in the polls. Georgia now leads the Pokes by 153 points. So relative to Georgia, they fell 202 points, for not beating the #1 team in the country.

I thought the computer polls might be different, but the BCS folks have neutered them, to where they must only consider win-loss and strength of schedule. The only difference in these polls is how they process this combo. Well, the Pokes fell hard. On a composite basis, they fell from 3rd to tied for 7th.

I hate to sound sympathetic for the Pokes and all, but that's just weird.

LandThieves Stat of the Week - OSU and the DJIA

This morning, I compared the performance from Sep 1- Dec 1 of the Dow Jones Industrial Average each year to the winning percentage of the Oklahoma State Cowboys football program, since 1960. Below are my findings:


From 1960-2007, the Cowboys have had 19 winning seasons. In those periods, the market has returned on average a 2.11% return for the period, which equates to a 8.44% annual return. The best performance was 16.4% (1985) and the worst performance was a loss of 25% (1987).


Conversely, the Cowboys have had 28 losing seasons. In those periods, the market has returned on average a 4.81% return for the period, which equates to a 19.3% annual return. The best performance was 17.07% (1998) and the worst performance was a loss of 7% (1978). So when the Cowboys lose, maximum performance is better and losses were less. It's the best of both worlds, as Hannah Montana would say.


Further analysis shows that the Pokes have had 8 seasons where they won more than 65% of their games. Those seasons yielded an average return of 1,24%, while seasons where they won less than 65% of their games yielded an average return of 4.09%.


Clearly, a good Oklahoma State football season is harmful to the Dow Jones Industrial average. in 2008, the Pokes are 7-0, and the DJIA is down 22% since Sep 1.


Momma, don't let your babies grow up to be Cowboys.

Is Okie State Broke?

Three weeks ago, I poked a bit of fun at TBP and his university. Now, there are murmurs of real trouble in Stillwater and at BP Capital. Now, the Sporting Blog is linking to an OU Insider story that indicates that "officials were told...the entire $165 million donated, and the earnings, which has once inflated the gift to over $300 million, had recently been eliminated by margin calls due to drastically falling oil prices." The Tulsa World and Daily Oklahoman each have stories recently about how the economic downturn is effecting collegiate sports, but nothing like this is spelled out.

Coach Hair Gel Mellows Out

Looks like Gundy is a little less stressed this year. Is he laying off the Red Bull? Did he short sell Boone's investment fund?Anyway, I found this amusing on several fronts, but primarily because a longtime friend is good friends with Gundy's wife, and she calls during his presser. See how that goes.

Musings on Texas and Boone State

I hear that Texas is underrated and "playing some of the best football in the country". Let's take a look at the Horns schedule so far:

• Florida Atlantic - FAU defeated Alabama-Birmingham 49-34. Aside from their 10-52 loss to Texas, they also sport 0-17 loss to Michigan State and 3-37 loss to juggernaut Minnesota. Minnesota has closer contests against Northern Illinois, Bowling Green and Montana State.
• UTEP - UTEP is 1-3, beating Central Florida but losing to Buffalo and New Mexico State.
• Rice - Rice dominates teams that run the chuck and duck, boasting wins over SMU, Memphis and North Texas.
• Arkansas - the Hogs trailed in the 4th quarter to Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe before winning. They lost by 35 to Bama before laying an egg against Texas.

See if you can match the scoring defense ranking with the opponent; a) 113; b) 104; c) 101; d) 106.

Now, which of these games did you expect the Horns to lose? Shouldn't they be 4-0? Shouldn't the team be "clicking on all cylinders"? McCoy didn't forget how to be a QB last year, he didn't have an o-line. His line has one more year of experience, and they've played some of the worst defenses in Division 1 this year. Their next foe, Colorado, is a veritable force to be reckoned with, ranking 63rd in scoring defense.

Now, onto Boone State:

• Washington State - WSU beat Portland State, who's never recovered from Neil Lomax and Clint Didier's departure. WSU is 96th in total offense and 106th in total defense. TheCougars followed up their 26 point loss to Okie State with a 28 pt loss to Baylor and a 49 point loss to Oregon.
• Houston - these Cougars are the closest thing to a quality win on the Boone State schedule to date. UH lost to Colorado State - whose only other victory was Sacramento State - and Air Force.
• Missouri State - Missouri State lost to Washburn. I'm not even bothering to research them further.
• Troy beat Alcorn state and Middle Tennessee, and but lost to Ohio State and Oklahoma State. Watching Troy play Houston would probably be riveting.

Match the school with their rushing defense ranking: a) 110; b) 112; c) 86; d) 118. Keep in mind that one of these schools is a 1-AA school.

Which one did you expect to beat Oklahoma State (ignore that I predicted a Troy upset)? Knowing what you know about their defenses now, which one would you expect to stop OSU? The Aggie Bowl is next, and Cash Machine U is 115th in rushing defense. The Aggies have allowed a 100 yard rusher in EVERY GAME SO FAR.

Pickens puts OSU up for Sale

by Joe Huff, Business Editor

Stillwater, OK (LTP) - T. Boone Pickens, the noted investor, water and wind farmer, is running out of capital. Sources close to the University said that Pickens has approached the State of Oklahoma about buying the university back, but the State is not interested.

Pickens made approximately $89 million in the 80s courtesy of a exquisitely executed greenmail of Phillips Petroleum. He has reverted to this tried and true method of extracting money from others, but so far, there are no takers.

A spokesman for the State of Oklahoma said, “with the struggling economy, we just don’t have the funds available. In addition, there’s just not that many successful graduates of Oklahoma State, so it’s not adding much to the economy. We feel that private enterprise may come up with an alternative that adds more production to the state.

Pickens has sought bids from others, but there are few folks expressing interest. Persons familiar with the requests for bids indicate that the following institutions were sent packages:

• FEMA – with news channels desperately seeking to drive ratings, a new cottage industry has arisen from housing hurricane evacuees. FEMA is considering making the Stillwater campus a permanent relocation center for those seeking shelter from real or imagined hurricanes. Local residents are concerned the plan could increase literacy rates in the area and shatter the fragile education system in Payne County.
• Federal Bureau of Prisons – the Feds issued a prepared statement, “even though the improvements to Lewis Field were dramatic, we don’t believe the facilities at Oklahoma State would be up to our standards of inmate care. I’m not even sure it would make a good prison yard."
• Pawnee Tribe- in a touching bit of irony, the tribe did not offer any cash, but did propose an exchange of the land for whiskey and beads.

Drug Testing Suggested for Fox Sports.com

Ran across the inevitable Top 10 up and coming coaches list.

Todd Dodge, UNT coach, is listed as an up and comer. That I have no issue with, I'm actually a fan of his. The twist is that his next logical step as a coach is Oklahoma Offensive Coordinator. The folks at FSN believe that Dodge will leapfrog Heupel on that front? Seems like they've been playing the Summer Olympics Drinking Game a little bit too much.

I also ran across an article today (courtesy of a link on the Tulsa World site) that ranks Briles as the 7th best coach in the Big 12. And he hasn't even coached a game yet (never mind the fact it's a Sorting News column from April 08). That's like saying Bo Pelini is one of three coaches in Bugeater history to have never lost a game as coach.

The Daily Oklahoman is slobbering over the HeadVisor this week, as Stoopsy is in his 10th year as Sooner coach. To all you Poke fans out there, I'm sure they'll return the favor when Gundy makes it to year 10. Be warned, however, that you've only had one coach since WW2 last 10 years, and that was Pat Jones. If memory serves me correctly, that's five years with Jimmy Johnson's recruits, and five years sinking the ship, or as statisticians call it, "reverting to the mean".

Boone State and the Number 8

Last year at this time, we surmised that Boone Pickens was trying to get American football started in China. This summer, while watching too much of the Olympics, the talking heads of NBC won't stop blabbering about 8 being a lucky number in china. This just further supports the theory from last year. To extend, I submit for you:

As Washington State - W
Houston - W
Missouri State - W
Troy - W
Texas A&M - W
at Missouri - L
Baylor - W
at Texas - L (they will start out with a double digit lead and lose by 20; it's a tradition)
Iowa State - W
at Texas Tech - L
at Colorado - W
at Oklahoma - L

This puts the Pokes at 8-4, a vast improvement over the 7-6 records the past two years. Coach Hair Gel will then get a 7 year contract extension, which will cover him until he's 48, which is a multiple of 8. It's just creepy.

Jarboe Signs with Troy

This means he will play in Oklahoma - Stillwater, that is - later this year. A real journalist would actually look at the OSU schedule and give you the exact date. But I'm watching the Olympics and tired.

On a related Boone State note, the dip in the price of oil has apparently delayed the Boone State indoor practice facility. I wish this fund would have been in place earlier in the decade to load up on Enron stock.

Wazzuu

If you need further reason to root for Washington State against Oklahoma State later this month, read this article from the Seattle Times on their new coach, Paul Wulff.

Stolen Thoughts 8-4-08

• First of all, a big tip o' the hat to OU AD Joe C, for pushing forward on the 1971 OU-NU reunion. There's not many events worthy of a 27 year reunion, but that game might be one of them. I love how it's part of extending an olive branch back to the Cornhuskers. For you young 'uns out there, or SWC faithful, the 70s-80s OU-NU clashes were great football, and there was a great respect between the two programs. The battles didn't have all the animosity that many rivalries have today.
• OSU is wearing orange bracelets reading, "Big 12 Champs, 12-8-2008" this year. At least that's what the Daily Oklahoman article says. I was curious what championship was played on 12-8-08, because I figured the Pokes were cheering for the cross country team or something. Found out the Big 12 football Champ game is on the 6th. I thought I was onto something, but an AP article indicates the bracelets say 12-6-08. I'll never get those five minutes back, but I was amusing the heck out of myself for awhile.
• The Big 12 champs thing is a bit optimistic. They should shoot for "Above .500 and play in a bowl game not in Texas or Louisiana." I think that's too much for one bracelet though. The last time the Pokes accomplished that was 1988, when they had a kid named Sanders as a RB and Hair Gel was QB.