OU - Mizzou Analysis

There's a lot of infatuation with the highly touted Mizzou offense by the pundits who predict a Tiger victory this weekend. What they're ignoring is that courtesy of a good offense, excellent defense, and good special teams, the Sooners are actually more effective at scoring points than the Tigers.

Mizzou averages 41.9 yards per game and 507 yards per game. The Sooners get fewer yards (457), but are more effective with them, scoring 43.8 points per game.

The Sooner D is markedly better. One of the geeky things my math brain likes to do is look at a team's ability to hold an opponent to a score below their average, and how much below they hold them. The Sooners are 4th in the nation in this area, and Missouri is 48th.

On the offensive side of the ball, Missouri ranks 3rd in their ability to exceed the opponent's defensive points allowed, while the Sooners rank 7th in that area.

All this to say that the Sooners have demonstrated a stronger ability to contain their opponent's offense than the Tigers, and that the Tiger's advantage offensively is not nearly as significant as the Sooners defensive advantage.

IMO, this will be the deciding point in the Sooners favor. on the other hand, the last time I posted anything remotely statistical in nature our QB was knocked out on the first offensive play.

Other items in the Sooners favor:

• Chase Daniel on the cover of SI. Worked well for the Jayhawks last week, didn't it?
• Missouri has opined that they "gave the game away" when the Sooner won in October in Norman. This seems to have riled Stoops and co, and Stoops is great at playing the disrespected role. Even if that disrespected team is the betting favorite and is ranked 9th.
• Last evening I saw Skip Bayless arguing with Todd McShay on the Budweiser hot seat about the Tigers/Sooners matchup. Bayless was incredulous that anyone could think that OU was the better team. I think that has to be in the Sooners favor.