Tuesday, October 27, 2009

OSU vs Texas

Many folks out there are telling us that Oklahoma State really has a chance against Texas this week. After all, the game is being played in Stillwater! And it was really close last year! Let's take a step back and look at some things we call "facts" here at LandThieves:

a) Mack Brown is undefeated against Oklahoma State
b) During Brown's tenure at Texas, the Horns have outscored the Pokes 216-125 in 6 games in Austin.
c) During that same period, over 5 games, it's 219-117 in Stillwater. So according to my calculations, Texas wins by 15 points in Austin, but when the Pokes have home field advantage it's only 21 points?
d) Boone State has the 36 ranked scoring defense in the country. Texas has the 9th ranked scoring defense.
e) Texas has the #1 ranked scoring offense in the country. Oklahoma State has the 6th ranked scoring offense.
f) based upon won-loss record of current foes, the Pokes have played the 64th toughest schedule in the country. On the same criteria, the Horns have played the 40th toughest schedule.
g) according to Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings, Texas has played the 52nd toughest schedule, and Oklahoma State's schedule is 100th toughest.

So, in a nutshell, in this series during the past 11 years, 1) the home field advantage has meant nothing for the Pokes; 2) Texas is a better team statistically; 3) Texas has superior performance in spite of playing a tougher schedule to date.

All this analysis could go out the window considering the game is played by 20 year olds that occasionally get distracted with wine, women and schoolwork.

1 comment:

t boone said...

tu has lost 1 Big 12 away game in each of last 3 years (K State, A&M and Tech). Away games remaining are OSU, Baylor and A&M. OSU doesn't have #1 receiver and #1 running back. tu will take OSU lightly.