Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Will Boone State really get a BCS bid

Much speculation going on about Oklahoma State going to a BCS game this year. I am interested to see how this plays out. First of all, the BCS selection isn't about field performance, it's about performance in the bleachers, so to speak. Can you fill the seats? Can you make the seat guarantees? The only way Okie State does this is through their owner/GM, Boone Pickens. Let's take a look at OSU attendance this year, in a stadium that is listed with a capacity of 60,218

Georgia - 53,012
Houston - 50,875
Rice - 51,083
Grambling State - 56,901
Missouri - 55,752
Texas - 58,516
Texas Tech - 52,811
Colorado - 50,080

Ponder for a moment that the second best attended game this year was Grambling State, the only 1-AA team on the schedule.

The Pokes also returned tickets to Oklahoma this year for the Bedlam game. The Sooners are in the middle of their most depressing season of the Stoops reign, the Hair Gels are having an historic season, and
they can't even sell the visitor ticket allotment for their most hated rival? But they're going to go to a BCS game? This smells like Boone either buying his way into the game, or the Big 12 lobbying hard for that second $17 million bowl payout. Or, perhaps it makes sense.

With the extra BCS game added, the "equal access" provided by adding a fifth BCS game really has provided additional access to the automatic qualifiers. There are 10 BCS bowl slots, and six automatic qualifiers. A conference cannot have more than 2 BCS participants in a season. Ergo, if you give one slot to TCU or Boise State, you've got nine slots to dole out. You'll have three automatic qualifying conferences with two slots and three with only one.
  • Iowa as a second Big 10 school is a no-brainer. They filled their 70,585 seat stadium to capacity 6 of 7 home games this year, and are highly ranked.
  • The SEC runnerup is a no-brainer. Bama and Florida travel well, the trip will be to the Sugar Bowl, and it's a top 5 team.
  • The third slot is then up for grabs between a) Boise State; b) a second Big 12 team; c) a second ACC team (Georgia Tech or Clemson); d) second Big East team (Cincinnati or Pitt); e) second Pac 10 team (loser between Oregon-Oregon State. If Oregon wins, Oregon State is not getting a second Pac 10 bid as an 8-4 team, and I think it's unlikely USC jumps in as a 9-3 team.

If Oregon loses to Oregon State, the Beavers go to the Rose Bowl and the BCS suits would then have to contemplate 10-2 Oregon vs 10-2 Oklahoma State.

IF OSU beats OU this weekend to finish 10-2 and 2nd in the Big 12 South, and Oregon beats Oregon State, there's really just a couple of scenarios that make sense: a) if Texas beats Cash Machine U and Nebraska, they will play in the BCSNCG and Oklahoma State will play Texas Christian in the Fiesta Bowl; b) Texas loses the Big 12 championship game, Nebraska goes to the Fiesta Bowl and Texas goes as an at-large team; If c) happens, where Texas loses to A&M bit wins the Big 12 the following week, I have no idea what happens.

Boise State playing TCU in the Fiesta Bowl doesn't make any sense. The David vs David story line doesn't play well. They played in the Poinsettia Bowl last year. Cincinnati backing into a BCS bid as a Big East second representative doesn't make sense.

As a result, I have to resign myself to the fact that if OSU beats Oklahoma this weekend, the Pokes are going to the Fiesta Bowl and we are going to the freaking Sun Bowl.

The Sooners have to keep the nation's longest home winning streak alive. It's for the kids.

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