Saturday, August 23, 2008

Rankings based on NFL Talent

I've been reading a lot about Georgia as the preseason #1 pick going into the college season, with other options being the Sooners, Trojans and Buckeyes. I decided to go to http://nfldraftsite.com, which has draft projections for the next two years online (and it's free), and see how the players stack up. The site has projected seven rounds of picks and another round of compensatory picks for 2009, and 2010. From that you can assess the level of pro talent on each roster. Admittedly, college and pro games differ (ask John Heupel or Danny Wuerffel for instance), but you gotta have some pro talent to succeed.

I took the 512 picks and assigned them a point value, with a top 8 pick getting 32 points, next eight picks getting, 31 points, and so on. I also went ahead and gave an extra point for a 2009 pick vs 2010, as upperclassmen should count for somethign extra. Without further ado, here is how the teams rate based upon this evaluation, with their USA Today Coaches poll ranking in parenthesis:

  1. Ohio State (3)
  2. Southern Cal (2)
  3. Tennessee (18)
  4. Miami FL (no votes)
  5. Clemson (9)
  6. Wisconsin (12)
  7. Texas (10)
  8. Oregon (20)
  9. LSU (6)
  10. Oklahoma (4)
  11. Michigan (24)
  12. Florida State (30)
  13. Florida (5)
  14. Arizona State (16)
  15. Alabama (26)
  16. Virginia (13)
  17. Missouri (7)
  18. Iowa (no votes)
  19. UCLA (47)
  20. Purdue (no votes)
  21. Auburn (11)
  22. Penn State (22)
  23. Kentucky (42)
  24. Notre Dame (42)
  25. Stanford (no votes)

Using this highly unscientific method of rankings, Georgia is ranked 36. Admittedly, the ranking is a bit flawed, as it gives no credit for exceptions freshman and sophomores, so you don't get credit for a Knowshon Moreno, Joe McKnight, or DeMarco Murray. Also, it doesn't factor in the impact coaching has (for every Bill Callahan, there's a Jim Grobe out there). Other elements of interest in the above: a) Miami FL still has talent; b) Notre Dame has more talent than Charlie Weis would have you believe; c) Stanford's upset of USC last year wasn't as far fetched as previously thought.

Here are rankings of other teams in the USA Today preseason top 25 (flawed nfl draft rankings in parenthesis):

  • 8th ranked West Virgina (46)
  • 13th ranked Kansas (70)
  • 14th ranked Texas Tech (40)
  • 15th ranked Virginia Tech (31)
  • 17th ranked BYU (49)
  • 19th ranked Illinois (39)
  • 21st ranked South Florida (29)
  • 23rd ranked Wake Forest (75)
  • 25th ranked Fresno State (66)

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