Friday, October 22, 2010

LandThieves CFB Poll Week 7

I've done my own computer rankings this year. They're a little late for this week, but here goes for the top 11:

  1. Oklahoma - no, I did not rig the computer to do this. The model takes opponents' winning percentage as a strength of schedule measure, and the Sooners have played one of the tougher schedules this year. And they've played poorly against most of that schedule.
  2. Missouri - this week will mark the first time in recorded history that 1 vs 2 in my poll have paired off. It makes me challenge the validity of my rankings. Conversely, Missouri has exceeded the average performance against it's opponents and has played a reasonably tough schedule.
  3. Auburn - no surprise here. They've played well this year against a tough schedule.
  4. Boise State - BSU's foes have a below 500 winning percentage. That's not going to get better. However, they beat their opponents by more than anyone else that plays them. This is a good team.
  5. Ohio State - they have one loss, to the 25th rated team in my model, (Wisconsin). Wisconsin wins ugly.
  6. Stanford - they should be ranked higher than this on quarterback tackling technique alone.
  7. Michigan State - best fake field goal this year.
  8. TCU - the opponents .500 winning percentage is hurting the Frogs. Upcoming games against Air Force and Utah should solidify this. Now they need to win the games.
  9. Oklahoma State - the offense is surprisingly effective this year. Their defense? middle of the pack.
  10. Oregon - I've watched a few of their games this year. They look awesome, so I think this is low. From a computer model perspective, their foes to date have been mediocre. Stanford is the only team with a winning record and New Mexico, Tennessee and Washington State have combined for three wins. As they go through the Pac 10, this will improve.
  11. LSU - the computer does not factor in luck.

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