Ten Things I think you think I think about the Boone State W

Wow, what a game. Here are some things I wondered then researched after the game.

1. Landry had not thrown a TD pass in the 4th quarter since the Cincinnati game, a 5 yard strike to Trey Millar.
2. Landry's 4th qtr stats for 2010, prior to Saturday: 34-58, with 329 yds, 1 TD and 3 INT.
3. Landry's 4th qtr stats for Bedlam, 7-13, 203 yds, 2 TDs and 0 INTs.
4. Prior to Saturday, the Sooners had scored 32 points in the 4th qtr through 11 games. Against the Pokes, they scored 23 in the final frame.
5. The Sooners have allowed 8 teams to score 10 points or more in the 4th quarter. The other four were held scoreless.
6. Saturday was the first time this year the Sooners scored double digits in the 4th qtr.
7. Coming into Saturday's game, Cameron Kenney had 14 catches for 184 yards and 1 score this year. Against Okie State, he had 6 catches for 141 yards and 2 TDs. The 2 scores doubled his career total.
8. Landry's QB rating in the 4th qtr was 235.78. His previous QB rating on the road in the 4th qtr was 92.54.
9. Landry's 3,957 yards in 2010 is the second highest passing yard total in Sooner history, second only to Sam Bradford's Heisman Trophy campaign in 2008.
10. Landry's 468 yards against Ok State ties Sam Bradford for the highest passing yard output in a game in Sooner history. Landry has 3 of the top 6 totals.
11. Landry's has the 4th highest career passing yards total in sooner history, and has not completed his sophomore campaign.
12. The Sooners ran 107 plays in this game, and controlled time of possession in this game. That's a little misleading, however, as a pick six and KO return for a score certainly gave the Sooners back the ball quickly a couple of times.
13. The defense held the vaunted Cowboy offense to 379 yards and forced three turnovers. The Poke offense scored 27 points, 18 below their season average.

Landry Jones in the 4th Quarter

Much has been made the past couple of weeks about the Sooners woes in the 4th quarter and on the road.
Let's look at Landry's QB rating by quarter this year, and where it stands nationally.

Landry's QB rating ranking - meaning where does his QB rating rank nationally - by quarter

1st Qtr = 150.31, (35th)
2nd Qtr = 152.74, (35th)
3rd Qtr = 140.03 (47th)
4th Qtr = 101.61 (I'm not certain. The 100th best 4th quarter passer (minimum 14 attempts) in FBS is Ryan Nassib at Syracuse.
Ryan's rating is 116.78. Jordan Winn of Utah is 99th at 117.79.)

Let's just say Landry is way down there.

I was also curious to see if Landry's drop in production was extraordinary. Of the top 94 rated passers in FBS, Landry's ratings drop from his rating in Q1-Q3 to Q4 was 83rd. In a nutshell, Landry's a different QB in the fourth quarter. And not in a good way.

One could argue that Landry is young, and that he'll get better. This is someone that started ten games last year and played in twelve. He now has 20 games under his belt. I would love to think that it's going to improve. But it's just possible that it's not going to happen.

The Rest of the Way

I was wondering this morning what the top 10 teams strength of schedule was the rest of the way. Using the Sagarin predictor rating (not the politically correct BCS scoring), here are the strength of schedules of the top 10 teams in the BCS going into today's games. The parenthetical ranking is the ranking of the remaining strength of schedule:

1. Auburn 78.35 (3)
2. Oregon 84.92 (1)
3. Boise State 73.62 (5)
4. TCU 67.40 (10)
5. Michigan State 71.66 (8)
6. Missouri 73.11 (7)
7. Alabama 73.32 (6)
8. Utah 77.31 (4)
9. Oklahoma 78.56 (2)
10. Wisconsin 68.38 (9)

When I decided to research this, I thought it would show that Boise didn't play a tough schedule and that they had an easy road the rest of the way. Instead, what I found was their schedule is not unlike others.Some points to highlight:

• Alabama's remaining SOS would be higher, but the game against Georgia State drags them down.
• Auburn's remaining SOS would be higher, but the game against Chattanooga drags them down.
• Auburn's cupcake game against the Mocs of Chattanooga still presents a stronger foe than Boise State conference for Utah State
• Wisconsin has played their toughest games. Their toughest game remaining is at Michigan, who is  - according to Sagarin's predictor ratings - 4 points worse than Baylor. The Badgers remaining slate is: Purdue, Indiana, Michigan, Northwestern.
• In comparison, Boise State has two games expected to be tougher than Wisconsin's trip to Michigan: Hawaii and Nevada. Statistically speaking, Michigan and Idaho are similar foes.
• TCU's remaining SOS is dragged down by Mountain West cellar dwellers UNLV and New Mexico. 1-AA Georgia State has a higher ranking than New Mexico.
• In conclusion, I guess I think it's less likely that a Big 6 school leapfrog Boise down the stretch due to Boise's "weak schedule". However, the above doesn't factor in human perception (2/3 of the poll) or that Alabama's computer ranking would be boosted by winning out, including the SEC championship game. It does look possible that Oregon could lose, yet still stay up there due to their increasingly difficult schedule down the stretch. 

Ten Things I think you think I think about the Texas loss to ISU

So yesterday was a lazy day for me, and I got to watch LOTS of college football. I wrote this while watching the end of the Texas -ISU game and part of the Bugeater-Pokes contest. Some might say that writing a post about a rival losing their game before wathcing your own team get drilled is Karma. Not a believer in the Karma thing, but I'd rather had Texas and OU win than both lose.

If I can pare down my thoughts on last night's loss to Missou to ten or twenty, we'll post those later.

1. First of all, I'm completely blown away by this. The Cyclone looked inept last week against the Sooners. And for most of the Utah game. 
2. The last time Texas lost two home games in a row they changed head coaches (1997). I don't see that happening.
3. Iowa State has never beaten Texas.
4. Coming into this game, the Cyclones were 99th in passing yards, 77th in rushing yards, 85th in points scored and 104th in points allowed.
5. Today is not one of those flukey wins. Texas kept making critical mistakes in the red zone, and continues to struggle with turnovers. Iowa State protected the ball, ran it well, and completed just enough passes to get the job done. Defensively, they consistently got pressure on the G Spot. And when you get pressure on the G Spot, good things happen.
6. Texas lacks leadership on both sides of the ball. I've said this before, but leadership and experience are huge. On the offensive side, no one has replaced the leadership of Colt McCoy or Jordan Shipley. On the defensive side, the Horns have not replaced the on the field leadership of Earl Thomas. Teams need someone, when adversity happens, to get in that huddle and say, "this stops here", and have the rest of the unit believe it. No one is doing that for the Horns.
7. Continuing on that thought, Texas was blessed to have a QB the caliber of Colt McCoy follow Vince Young. That's two of the better QBs in college fb history. Teams often struggle when they lose their leaders. Watch Florida this year. Or the Sooners last year after Bradford went down. Or after Jason White completed this PhD in football in 2005. What Oregon is doing after losing their QB to laptop theft is huge.
8. I really thought the G spot would be better than his in 2010. And, given time, he may still be. I don't think Greg Davis has figured out what to do with him, when you combine an inexperienced QB with a spotty line and inexperienced receivers.
9. I don't know when the last time is a team has lost by 50 and then beat a ranked opponent on the road the following week. I'm guessing never.
10. The other two teams to score less than 24 points against Iowa State? Northern Iowa and Northern Illinois. Texas, thy new name is Northern Mexico.

Ten things I think you think I think - Missouri preview

1. Much is being made this week about Gary Pinkel being winless against Oklahoma. Let's be fair. Pinkel's predecessor, Larry Smith, only beat the Sooners once. Smith benefited from coaching against John Blake. That's like taking candy from a baby. Further back, Bob Stull and Woody Widenhofer weren't able to beat OU either. The last coach to beat the Sooners twice as Missouri coach: Warren Powers.
2. Before we get too enamored with Missouri and playing them at home, without this play, the Tigers lose to San Diego State, are 5-1 going into this game and it's being played at 1100 am on Fox Sports.
3. The discussion about Missouri's defense is curious. Missouri has the second best scoring defense in FBS. Of the five FBS teams Missouri has played, three are in the bottom thirty of scoring offenses in FBS.
4. When reading the above note, do not pay attention to the fact that Oklahoma gave up 24 points to the 90th best scoring offense in the land. Nothing to see here, move along.
5. Another fun fact: Phil Steele likes to evaluate Points per Yard. Offensively, it speaks to your effectiveness in scoring points. Defensively, it speaks to how hard you make the other team work for points. Field position and turnovers contribute to skewing this stat. The team with the best defensive yards per point so far this year? Missouri, at 30.3 yards per point. Second, TCU with 23.5 yards per point.
6. Missouri's stat here is helped significantly by the 379 yard, 9 point effort by Cash Machine U last week, and the 311 yards and no points performance against Colorado. So either Mizzou is hitting their stride defensively, or they're playing teams struggling offensively. Personally, I think it's both.
7. In case you're wondering if Defensive Yards per point is some sort of quirky stat, here's your top ten, in order: Mizzou, TCU, Alabama, Iowa, Arizona, Mississippi State, Oregon, San Diego State, West Virginia and Oklahoma.
8. I think I'm glad I don't have to channel flip between Game 7 of Rangers / Yankees and Sooners / Tigers tonight.
9. In researching the Tigers this morning, I've become more concerned about this game than I was previously. Sagarin's predictor ranking system has the Tigers ahead of the Sooners, by about two points, and then you'd give the Tigers three for home field advantage. Missouri is a better unit defensively than I thought, I've always thought Gabbert was a good QB, and Pinkel is an excellent coach.
10. What I have some level of faith in this year for the Sooners is they a) take care of the ball well; b) the seem to play to the level of competition, which is in the Sooners favor this week. If they keep it up, they can squeak by with another 7 point victory.

LandThieves CFB Poll Week 7

I've done my own computer rankings this year. They're a little late for this week, but here goes for the top 11:

1. Oklahoma - no, I did not rig the computer to do this. The model takes opponents' winning percentage as a strength of schedule measure, and the Sooners have played one of the tougher schedules this year. And they've played poorly against most of that schedule.
2. Missouri - this week will mark the first time in recorded history that 1 vs 2 in my poll have paired off. It makes me challenge the validity of my rankings. Conversely, Missouri has exceeded the average performance against it's opponents and has played a reasonably tough schedule.
3. Auburn - no surprise here. They've played well this year against a tough schedule.
4. Boise State - BSU's foes have a below 500 winning percentage. That's not going to get better. However, they beat their opponents by more than anyone else that plays them. This is a good team.
5. Ohio State - they have one loss, to the 25th rated team in my model, (Wisconsin). Wisconsin wins ugly.
6. Stanford - they should be ranked higher than this on quarterback tackling technique alone.
7. Michigan State - best fake field goal this year.
8. TCU - the opponents .500 winning percentage is hurting the Frogs. Upcoming games against Air Force and Utah should solidify this. Now they need to win the games.
9. Oklahoma State - the offense is surprisingly effective this year. Their defense? middle of the pack.
10. Oregon - I've watched a few of their games this year. They look awesome, so I think this is low. From a computer model perspective, their foes to date have been mediocre. Stanford is the only team with a winning record and New Mexico, Tennessee and Washington State have combined for three wins. As they go through the Pac 10, this will improve.
11. LSU - the computer does not factor in luck.

2010 Mid Season Awards

The Sooners are halfway through an undefeated season, so it's time for some midseason awards.


Sooner Offensive Co-MVP: Ryan Broyles and DeMarco Murray. Broyles has been unstoppable, and DeMarco is getting boatloads of TDs.

Defensive MVP: I would have to go with Jonathan Nelson. his first half at Cincinnati practically saved the game for the Sooners. He also had a big game against the Horns.

Special Teams MVP: James Winchester. He's recovered two fumbled punts for the Sooners, both preserving narrow Sooner victories.

Well, he certainly had me calling God a few times award: Landry Jones, who is intending to enter the ministry after college.

The wannabe like you award: Baylor Bears, who seem to have finally embraced the depravity of man in their football team. Coincidentally, they are one win away from being bowl eligible.

Miss me yet award: Mark Mangino

Surprised to see you here. not. OSU and Missouri are undefeated. Knowing how error prone TAMU is now, who did you expect OSU to lose to? Troy? Washington State? Texas Tech in transition? And Missouri? Were they supposed to lose to San Diego State? or Illinois? Granted those teams are solid this year, but Mizzou should win those games. For both teams, it gets harder here on out.

Conference Coach of the mid-year: I have to go with Coach Hair Gel. His decision to bring on Dana Holgorson as OC is paying off. Of course, a healthy Kendall Hunter makes you a better coach also.

Conf Off MVP: Taylor Martinez. The speedy QB has rejuvenated the Huskers. Except for last week.

Conf Def MVP: I've got to go with Nebraska LB Lavonte Weeds, who averages over 11 tackles a game. Plus, his name sounds like a car. Chrysler Lavonte. You know you want one.