Saturday, October 30, 2010

The Rest of the Way

I was wondering this morning what the top 10 teams strength of schedule was the rest of the way. Using the Sagarin predictor rating (not the politically correct BCS scoring), here are the strength of schedules of the top 10 teams in the BCS going into today's games. The parenthetical ranking is the ranking of the remaining strength of schedule:
  1. Auburn 78.35 (3)
  2. Oregon 84.92 (1)
  3. Boise State 73.62 (5)
  4. TCU 67.40 (10)
  5. Michigan State 71.66 (8)
  6. Missouri 73.11 (7)
  7. Alabama 73.32 (6)
  8. Utah 77.31 (4)
  9. Oklahoma 78.56 (2)
  10. Wisconsin 68.38 (9)
When I decided to research this, I thought it would show that Boise didn't play a tough schedule and that they had an easy road the rest of the way. Instead, what I found was their schedule is not unlike others.Some points to highlight:
  • Alabama's remaining SOS would be higher, but the game against Georgia State drags them down.
  • Auburn's remaining SOS would be higher, but the game against Chattanooga drags them down.
  • Auburn's cupcake game against the Mocs of Chattanooga still presents a stronger foe than Boise State conference for Utah State
  • Wisconsin has played their toughest games. Their toughest game remaining is at Michigan, who is  - according to Sagarin's predictor ratings - 4 points worse than Baylor. The Badgers remaining slate is: Purdue, Indiana, Michigan, Northwestern.
  • In comparison, Boise State has two games expected to be tougher than Wisconsin's trip to Michigan: Hawaii and Nevada. Statistically speaking, Michigan and Idaho are similar foes.
  • TCU's remaining SOS is dragged down by Mountain West cellar dwellers UNLV and New Mexico. 1-AA Georgia State has a higher ranking than New Mexico.
  • In conclusion, I guess I think it's less likely that a Big 6 school leapfrog Boise down the stretch due to Boise's "weak schedule". However, the above doesn't factor in human perception (2/3 of the poll) or that Alabama's computer ranking would be boosted by winning out, including the SEC championship game. It does look possible that Oregon could lose, yet still stay up there due to their increasingly difficult schedule down the stretch. 

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Why not use the SoS that the NCAA uses?

Official NCAA strength of schedule