We'll be heading up to the promised land tonight and be there for several days without the internets or world wide webs.
I wish everyone a joyous thanksgiving, and I pray you have much to be thankful for.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Boone State Preview Limerick
Sooners will be playing hurt.
The Cowboys are on alert.
We will beat their ___,
Their cheer squads eat grass.
Now Lewis Field is all dirt.
Boomer Sooner!
The Cowboys are on alert.
We will beat their ___,
Their cheer squads eat grass.
Now Lewis Field is all dirt.
Boomer Sooner!
Monday, November 19, 2007
Sooner Title Hopes not dead
Most folks are proclaiming the Sooners national title hopes dead. Well, Dr. Crimson N. Cream is here to tell you the patient is not dead yet, but has some serious life support issues. Here's how those championship hopes could start breathing on their own: (rankings are BCS rankings and point spreads are off of Yahoo! or DMN Monday paper, copied without permission):
Here are the most unlikely elements of this, according to point spreads:
- #18 Tennessee, a 3 point underdog, beats unranked Kentucky this weekend.
- #10 Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State.
- #1 Ranked LSU (12.5 pt favorite) loses to Arkansas this weekend , or loses to Tennessee in the SEC Championship game.
- #2 Kansas- #4 Missouri winner loses to #10 Oklahoma.
- West Virginia (17 point favorite) loses to #20 Connecticut, or even less likely, is upset by Pitt the following weekend.
- #11 Southern Cal (3 point favorite) defeats #6 Arizona State.
- #7 Georgia, (3.5 pt favorite) loses on the road to Georgia Tech.
- #8 Virginia Tech ( 3.5 pt favorite), loses either at Virginia this weekend or loses in the ACC championship game to Boston College. Per the Sagarin predictor (also cited blatantly without permission), the Hokies would be a 3 point favorite or so in that game.
- #9 Oregon, a 2 pt favorite, loses to UCLA at home this weekend, or they lose to their 7-4 intrastate rival Oregon State the following weekend.
Here are the most unlikely elements of this, according to point spreads:
- should Tennessee upset Kentucky, they'll likely be a 14 pt underdog to LSU
- West Virginia is a 17 point favorite at home against #20 Connecticut.
The other on the field elements all involve games where the point spread is less than 4, and as a result, are quite possible.
The other big hurdle, in my opinion, would be the human poll voters. I perceive, through my crimson and cream colored glasses, a bit of bitterness toward the LandThieves for backing into the national championship game in 2003 and failing to show up at the Orange Bowl following the 2004 season. If a voter realized the Sooners were poised to be the two loss team to play the Sweatervests, they might "vote down" the Sooners and choose another two loss team as the #2 team. Looking at the other two loss teams at that point, you'd have:
- LSU, with losses at Kentucky and to Tennessee/Arkansas
- West Virgnia, with losses to Connecticut and South Florida
- Arizona State, with losses to USC and Cal
- Oklahoma, with losses to Colorado and Texas Tech
- USC with losses to Oregon and Stanford
- Texas, with losses to Oklahoma and Kansas State
Looking at losses only, LSU is the team that lost to the most formidable foes. Because of this, from a Sooner perspective, I think it's important for LSU to beat Arkansas then lose to Tennessee. A loss to Arkansas and then a victory at the SEC Champ game would probably leave poll voters putting LSU ahead of the Sooners.
Also, if Missouri beats Kansas, you'd have a one loss Kansas team - who didn't win their division and might not beat a team that ends the year with a record above .500 - that might be ranked higher than the Sooners. I don't think that's likely, though, as the Sooners would have at least beaten Texas (9-2 or 10-3), and Missouri (11-2 with both losses to OU), and I think Kansas will be punished severely if they lose to their one premier foe of the season.
Now, you can take this checklist with you on your Thanksgiving trip and you'll know just how to root for the games this weekend.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
LandThieves Poll #7
- Ohio State - I would give you some insightful comments on the Ohio State victory over the Maize and Blue this weekend, but I lost consciousness watching it.
- LSU - they should falter with Les secretly campaigning for the Michigan job.
- West Virginia - Rich Rodriguez was up all night Saturday night, thanking God he didn't take the Alabama job.
- Kansas - the best undefeated team in the country. Missouri is playing well, it should be a good game Saturday night. check your local listing.
- Missouri - scores 38+ again.
- Arizona State - Dirk Koetter is now cleaning the Boise State locker room.
- Boston College - BC just keeps eaking out victories.
- Virignia Tech - Hokies would be higher if not for that near miracle comeback by BC a few weeks ago.
- Illinois - my favorite Big Ten team = any team that beats Ohio State
- Georgia - Dawg fans are big fans of the Kentucky Wildcats this weekend. A KU victory gives Georgia a berth in the SEC championship game.
- South Florida - don't look now, but South Florida is winning again.
- Oregon - who's a better QB? Brady Leaf or Joey Halzle? Discuss.
- Oklahoma - see above.
- Florida - the Heisman tropy winner plays on this team.
- Texas - if Boone State beats the Sooners, Texas will represent the Big 12 South in San Antonio for the Big 12 Championship.
- Cincinnati
- Virginia - eight victories by a total of 53 points (7 by 23) and a whupping of Miami-FL by 48. The battle with Va Tech should be a defensive snoozefest this weekend.
- Clemson
- Michigan
- Southern Cal
- Connecticutt - remember when beating Syracuse meant something.
- Northern Iowa
- Rutgers
- Auburn
- Penn State
Baylor Fires Morris, Who's Next
Baylor announced today that Guy Morriss would not retained for the 2008 season. Frankly, my interview with Morris at the Big 12 Media days led me to believe he was losing his grip on the team. Early reports indicate that Baylor and NFL great Mike Singletary is a leading candidate. Personally, I think he would be a great hire because he's an alum, he's climbing the coaching ranks in the NFL, and he's an undeniable leader. I also read (don't recall the source) today that the Baylor administration would also like to talk to Houston Nutt if he were to be made available by the Razorbacks.
Since I live in a suburb with a fair amount of Baptists and Baylor grads, I thought I would do some "person on the street interviews" and get a feel from those with Baylor interests about their next football coach. I thoughtfully considered how to ask my 
question. As an experienced journalist, I know this is an important part of the interview. The question I planned to pose to my interview subjects, was "How would you feel if BU selected Houston Nutt as head coach over Mike Singletary?" However, this interaction with a Baylor grad housewife led me to abandon future polling efforts.
question. As an experienced journalist, I know this is an important part of the interview. The question I planned to pose to my interview subjects, was "How would you feel if BU selected Houston Nutt as head coach over Mike Singletary?" However, this interaction with a Baylor grad housewife led me to abandon future polling efforts.Job 1:20-21
Job 1:20-21 says, "At this, Job got up and tore his robe and shaved his head. Then he fell to the ground in worship and said: "Naked I came from my mother's womb, and naked I will depart. The LORD gave and the LORD has taken away;may the name of the LORD be praised."
Well, we were all fired up when Dennis Dixon blew his knee out Thursday night. Then Sam attempts a tackle after a fumble by Allen Patrick and sustains a concussion. Personally, I don't think it's as much the Tech defender as it was Duke Robinson helping out on the tackle from behind.
The injuries ended up being huge. In the game, the Sooners lost Adron Tonnell (concussion), Alan Davis (knee), Bradford (concussion) , and DeMarco Murray (kneecap?).
Oklahoma needs to beat Boone State next week to win the Big 12 championship. If Bradford and Murray are unable to go, then it's a whole different ballgame.
Thoughts on the game: First of all, a big tip of the hat to Tech. They played well, and they were absolutely unstoppable in the first half, and their defense shut the Sooners down in the first half. On to other analysis. The o-line has been disappointing all year. They were supposed to be the nation's best unit, and I just don't believe we've seen that often enough this year. In the first half, we should have just been able to take the ball and run it and get control of the game, and for various reasons, we just didn't do that. Joey Halzle was rusty. He was awful in the first half. He improved in the second half, but missed some big throw in the second half. I know of at least two times on 3rd down where he threw outs to receivers to points that were 1 yard shy of the first down marker. Once Alan Davis went down with a leg injury, the Sooners played a lot more agressively defensively. In the first half, it seemed as if the Sooners were just always rushing 3 or 4 and sitting back in a zone. Harrell picked them apart. Crabtree was as good as expected. He is special. The botched fake punt didn't look like it was going to work. I thought it was poor time to even attempt it...your D hasn't stopped them, your on your 40, it's only 4 yards, you need some momentum. It was a time that the fake was obvious. The failed snap just put the play out of it's misery.
Overall, if you would have told me that Bradford was going to throw for 11 yards, Harrell would throw for over 400, and that we'd have two turnovers, I would tell you the Sooners got blown out. While they were definitely down 24 at one time, I was surprised the Sooners fought back into the game...they had two failed fourth down attempts in the red zone in the last six minutes of the game, and still got a score and had an onside attempt to get one more chance to score.
Oh well, I hate losing. But a W next week still gives us a South Division championship and a BCS bowl game.
Well, we were all fired up when Dennis Dixon blew his knee out Thursday night. Then Sam attempts a tackle after a fumble by Allen Patrick and sustains a concussion. Personally, I don't think it's as much the Tech defender as it was Duke Robinson helping out on the tackle from behind.
The injuries ended up being huge. In the game, the Sooners lost Adron Tonnell (concussion), Alan Davis (knee), Bradford (concussion) , and DeMarco Murray (kneecap?).
Oklahoma needs to beat Boone State next week to win the Big 12 championship. If Bradford and Murray are unable to go, then it's a whole different ballgame.
Thoughts on the game: First of all, a big tip of the hat to Tech. They played well, and they were absolutely unstoppable in the first half, and their defense shut the Sooners down in the first half. On to other analysis. The o-line has been disappointing all year. They were supposed to be the nation's best unit, and I just don't believe we've seen that often enough this year. In the first half, we should have just been able to take the ball and run it and get control of the game, and for various reasons, we just didn't do that. Joey Halzle was rusty. He was awful in the first half. He improved in the second half, but missed some big throw in the second half. I know of at least two times on 3rd down where he threw outs to receivers to points that were 1 yard shy of the first down marker. Once Alan Davis went down with a leg injury, the Sooners played a lot more agressively defensively. In the first half, it seemed as if the Sooners were just always rushing 3 or 4 and sitting back in a zone. Harrell picked them apart. Crabtree was as good as expected. He is special. The botched fake punt didn't look like it was going to work. I thought it was poor time to even attempt it...your D hasn't stopped them, your on your 40, it's only 4 yards, you need some momentum. It was a time that the fake was obvious. The failed snap just put the play out of it's misery.
Overall, if you would have told me that Bradford was going to throw for 11 yards, Harrell would throw for over 400, and that we'd have two turnovers, I would tell you the Sooners got blown out. While they were definitely down 24 at one time, I was surprised the Sooners fought back into the game...they had two failed fourth down attempts in the red zone in the last six minutes of the game, and still got a score and had an onside attempt to get one more chance to score.
Oh well, I hate losing. But a W next week still gives us a South Division championship and a BCS bowl game.
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Prediction for the Tech Game
I decided this morning to be a little bit of "analysis" on the Red Raider game. Seems like Tech is always scoring lots of points, but those points don't translate into much against the Sooners. Let's take a look at the Leach era.
| Year | Ave Pts In Reg Season | Std Dev | Pts Ag OU |
| 2000 | 26.4 | 14.9 | 13 |
| 2001 | 37.3 | 17.1 | 13 |
| 2002 | 37.0 | 16.0 | 15 |
| 2003 | 44.5 | 13.2 | 25 |
| 2004 | 37.6 | 17.2 | 13 |
| 2005 | 44.0 | 20.4 | 23 |
| 2006 | 32.2 | 17.1 | 24 |
| 2007 | 42.5 | 15.9 |
TT has yet to obtain their average points scored against the Sooners. In 5 of the 7 years, their score has been less than the average minus a standard deviation, with the exceptions being 2000 and 2006, the lowest scoring seasons for the Red Raiders. Now, look at similar data for the Sooners.
| Year | Ave Pts in Reg Season | Std Dev | Pts Ag TT |
| 2000 | 40.1 | 13.9 | 27 |
| 2001 | 32.5 | 14.0 | 30 |
| 2002 | 38.0 | 12.1 | 60 |
| 2003 | 47.6 | 15.5 | 56 |
| 2004 | 36.3 | 12.1 | 28 |
| 2005 | 28.5 | 11.2 | 21 |
| 2006 | 30.6 | 12.2 | 34 |
| 2007 | 45.0 | 17.7 |
OU has exceeded their average points three of the seven years. The other four years have been within the standard deviation of the average score.
All this to say the Sooners have had more success defending the Red Raiders and been able to control the game. This shouldn't be a big shocker, the Sooners have been 6-1 against the Red Raiders since Leach left.
I expect this form to hold, that the Sooners will win 28-24.
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