Saturday, November 19, 2011

10 Things I think after OSU's loss to Iowa State

  1. I don't really think this loss hurts our BCS title game chances. Reasons why:
  2. Well, I don't think they have a chance at the title game.
  3. First, OU has to beat two top 25 teams on the road, plus beat a respectable Iowa State team at home before this is even an issue. Iowa State beat Texas Tech in Lubbock by 34 the week after the Red Raiders upset OU in Norman.
  4. Second, OU has BY FAR the weakest loss of any of the one loss teams.The one loss teams and their losses
    1. Alabama - in OT against LSU
    2. Oregon - neutral field against LSU
    3. Arkansas - against Bama
    4. Clemson - lost to 7-3 Georgia Tech
    5. Virginia Tech - lost by 20 at home to Clemson
    6. Stanford - lost to Oregon
    7. Boise - lost to 8-2 TCU by one point.
    8. Oklahoma - lost to 5-5 Texas Tech. Tech's only win in their past six games was against OU. Texas Tech's points allowed in their last 6 games: 45, 41, 38, 41, 52, 66
  5. Clay Travis does a great job of breaking this down, but basically one LSU loss in the next three games will not disqualify them from the BCS title game. I think this is even more true after OSU's loss to the Cyclones last night.
  6. If you believe that, and I do, then OU needs at least two of the following things to happen in the next three weeks (I've ordered in :
    1. Alabama to lose at Auburn. Nick Saban coached LSU/Bama teams are 1-4 at Auburn.
    2. Oregon to lose to one of the following (I've placed in order of likelihood)
      1. at home against Southern Cal this evening
      2. at home against intrastate rival (but 2-8) Oregon State
      3. in Pac 12 Title game against Arizona State or UCLA.
    3. Arkansas and Georgia beat LSU. You would also need Arkansas to not jump ahead of OU after this victory.
  7. Reasons all this could happen, or we could get there anyway:
  8. Stoops is 28-2 against the three teams left on our schedule.
  9. Human polls could decide that a rematch of the following games is not desirable. 
    1. LSU-Arkansas
    2. Arkansas-Alabama
    3. Oregon-LSU
  10. One of the things I dread is ending up playing LSU in New Orleans for the title. 
    1. I think the defense is just too good. 
    2. Broyles is out
    3. Our defense keeps getting nicked.
    4. Les Miles is the only coach to play three or more games against Stoops and have a non-losing record against Stoops.
    5. Mike Stoops still isn't our defensive coordinator.

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