The End is Near

Got my Sports Illustrated in the mail today. Today is a big day in Poke history. Why, do you ask? It's the first time the Oklahoma State Cowboys made it on the cover of SI. Ever.

Let's hope it's a cover jinx.

To add to my misery, my ESPN The Magazine showed up today as well. Cover? My Little Pony.

I'll take the end of year covers over the beginning of year covers.

Big 12 Preview - Travis County Jail

It pains me to write this, but I have the Horns going 12-0 this year. The difference between the Horns and the Sooners for this year: returning offensive linemen and receivers, and Will Muschamp. My Little Pony is the likely Heisman winner this year. A couple of weeks ago, the DMN predicted the Big 12 South would be a 3 way tie again, with Boone State, OU and UT being the co-champions. It was an interesting story line, but not probable. If my prediction of returning o-line and receivers makes the difference in the Red River Rivalry game, then it means the Horns have to lose to someone else in Big 12 play. They’ve lost to the Pokes ONCE since the end of World War II, in 1997. The Horns fired their coach at the end of that year. Mack has lost two conference games in Austin in 11 seasons, so it’s unlikely to happen there. Looking at the Horns road games, they get Baylor in Waco (Mack is undefeated against Baylor); Oklahoma State (ditto); Missouri (ditto); and Texas A&M (Aggies are 2-3 at home against Mack). Unless Colt has another injury, I don’t see this happening. So if UT makes it through the murderous Louisiana-Monroe/Wyoming/UTEP non-conference schedule, wins out at home and beats OU, the table is set for another undefeated season. If not, look for a lot of crying in Austin.

Big 12 Preview - Sooners

Oklahoma – the Sooners only return one offensive lineman starter this year, and also lose Iglesias and Johnson from the receiving corps. Sam Bradford probably won’t get 50 TDs this year, but I’m sure he’ll have an excellent year. To show you how good Sam is, and how the passing record book is still emerging in Norman, in the second game of his junior year, Sam wilI pass Jason White, who got a Ph D in kinesiology while playing seven years, as the career leader in passing yards. Four more TDs and he’s also the career TD passing leader.

I expect the Sooners to run more frequently this year, to take pressure off the green o-line and feature the strengths of one of the better running back tandems in football , Chris Browne and DeMarco Murray. Gresham returns as an all-world TE, and Mossis Madu, Adron Tonnell and Ryan Broyles should provide some fireworks from the outside. On the defense, the Sooners return a fabulous d-line, and a LB corp with Keenan Clayton, Travis Lewis and Ryan Reynolds should be much improved this year. The key questions on the defense are: 1) will DeMarcus Granger stay healthy’ 2) will the dominance of the d-line and LBs compensate for the inexperienced safeties, and 3) what game does Ryan Reynolds blow a knee. The Sooners will miss Lendy Holmes in the defensive backfield, and the inexperience of the safeties and offensive linemen will probably hurt the Sooners in the losses in Dallas to the Longhorns and to the Dust Pirates in Lubbock, and they'll end up second in the Big 12 South. The good news to that is we can play a lesser team in the BCS like the Horns normally do, and win a bowl game.

Here’s hoping I’m wrong, and that we have another successful season, with a Big 12 Championship.

Big 12 Preview - Dust Pirates

In case you’re wondering if TT is going to have a dropoff in the passing game with Harrell and Crabtree's departure, here’s some interesting tidbits for you:

Kliff Kingsbury threw for 5,017 yards and 45 TDs in his senior year with the Red Raiders. The Red Raiders went 9-5 in 2002.BJ Symons succeed K-squared and threw for 5,883 yards and 52 TDs. TT went 8-5 in 2003. Sonny Cumbie succeeded Symons and threw for 4,742 yards and 32 TDs. TT went 8-4 in 2004. Cody Hodges followed Cubmine and threw for 4,197 yards and 31 TDs. TT went 9-3 in 2005. Harrell followed Hodges and threw for 4,555 yards and 38 TDs his sophomore year. TT went 8-5 in 2006.

What all this means is that Harrell has left for the UFL, but you can still expect 35 TDs and 4000+ yards from the next TT QB. And the Red Raiders will win 8-9 games. Unlikely to repeat the magic of last year’s W against Texas, but they’re much more likely to beat OU in Lubbock (won their last two against OU in Lubbock). I have the Dust pirates going 9-3 in the regular season, with their losses coming on the road against Texas, Nebraska and Boone State.

All this to say that Leach and the Red Raiders should have confidence this year won't be a big dropoff in Lubbock.

Big 12 Preview - Boone State

Oklahoma State – It's been an interesting offseason for the Pokes.First of all, Holder suspends the building program because Boone's investments have gone in the crapper; then the Pokes start getting a lot of coverage as a team to watch this year…they tie Ole Miss for the “sleeper picked so much to be a sleeper so they’re really not a sleeper”.

Zac Robinson is back for his senior year, and Dez Bryant returns as a junior. Coach Hair Gel is going to call is own plays again this year, and the Pokes added alumnus Bill Young as defensive coordinator this year. Young also coached for the Sooners during the Blake era, but was let go as Blake “brought his own people in”. Young was d-coordinator under Shamangino at Kansas during their resurgence, and is well-respected in the game. It remains to be seen whether that will translate into success for the Pokes; they haven’t had good defenses there since – well, I can’t remember when. Probably when Jimmy Johnson was coach.

Boone’s boys start off the year hosting Georgia, who will be solid, but lost Stafford and Moreno to the NFL this off-season. It will be the first non-conference game against a BCS foe in Stillwater since 2002. If they pull off the W (it would be the first non-conf W against BCS conf foe since a 1998 W vs Miss St), they’ll be poised to be 7-0 and hosting Texas. I don’t see them beating the Dawgs or the Horns, nor the Sooners at home, so it’ll be 9-3 and on to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl.

Education: If Cowboys go 9-3 in the regular season and win their bowl game, it will be the first time the Pokes finished with fewer than 4 losses since 1988. Gundy would finish the season with 37 wins, and rank as the 3rd winningest head coach in the 109 year history of the program.

Big 12 Preview - Baylor

Art Briles and Robert Griffin return for their second season in Waco, and they’ve also added Coppell stud Tyler DeLoach to the roster this year. Bruce Feldman had a nice article in ESPN the Magazine about the Baylor resurgence, and I can't figure out how to link to it. Defensive stalwarts Pawelek and Lake return on the defensive side for another year of Bear excellence. I see the Bears finishing 7-5 this year for their first winning record since 1995 and first trip to a bowl game since 1994. The Bears will win their four non-conference games, then go 1-3 in their next four against OU, Iowa State, Boone State and the Bugeaters. The Bears will then beat Mizzou, scare Texas before falling, beat the Aggies in College Station (this first Bear W in College Station since 1984) and then lose to the Dust Pirates at Cowboy Stadium to end the regular season. The big news at the season finale will be either a) Bear fans in shock that parking at Cowboys Stadium costs more than a ticket at Floyd Casey, and b) they made a home game an away game by allowing all the DFW based Tech alumni easy access to a Red Raider game.

The problem for the Bears will be they will be participating in the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, where the Baylor fans will hit the casinos and hope not to be noticed by their Baptist brethren. It’ll look like Halloween in with all the people wearing Art Briles masks. The last time a group of people were so excited to be in Shreveport was 1999, when the Sooners went there in the first year of Stoops reign.

Briles' focus on fundamentals will be the key to the Bears resurgence this year.

Big 12 Preview - Cash Machine U

I would imagine some Aggie fans are ready to name the stadium after RC Slocum. RC lost 37 games while winning 84 in the final 10 years of his 14 year career. In the six seasons since, the Aggies have gone 36-37. The Aggies have the erratic-to-date Sherrod Johnson at QB, and there’s no Wrecking Crew for the time being. The only thing that’s wrecked is the bowl hopes of the Aggie faithful. Coach Sherman may turn this thing around, but how long will it take? Last year, Baylor was picked last in the conference by all but one voter. This year, it’s the Aggies in that slot. I’m projecting a 6-6 record for Cash Machine U, with the Ags losing to Arkansas, and going o-fer against the Big 12 South. Aggies our proud of their history, and it’s a great university. They won’t look back fondly upon this era.

Now, you readers get to pick the footall poster for the Aggies this year. Click through to the website to vote for Pressure, Tradition, or History