Round 2 - Conference Records

Same drill as two days ago. For selected conferences, here are actual records, and records if they better seeded team won.

ACC - 5-5 (expected 9-4)
Atlantic 10 - 3-2 (2-2)
Big 10 - 6-5 (2-6)
Big 12 - 9-3 (8-3)
Big East - 11-2 (12-2)
Pac 10 - 6-5 (5-5)

We can safely say the Big East has met expectations with the 5 teams in the Sweet 16 and nearly 6. The ACC flopped, but still has standard bearers UNC and Duke.

Here's a breakdown of the sweet 16 by conf

Big East - 5
Big 12 - 3
ACC and Big 10 - 2
Atlantic 10 - 1
CUSA - 1
Pac 10 - 1
WCC - 1

OU - TCU - 5 plays

A random thing I noted while thinking back over the game yesterday. The Sooners forced 4 TCU turnovers. The last one was inconsequential, with less than a minute to go in the game. The Sooners converted those three turnovers earlier in the game into 0 points. In fact, in each instance, the Frogs held OU to a three and out, with the Sooners netting 18 yards on the nine plays in those three possessions.

1. 1st qtr, 1st and 10 from the Sooner 24. An out and up by Iglesias results in the first Sooner score. Nice move by Iglesias and pump fake by Bradford.
2. On the ensuing kickoff, Lendy Holmes chases down Aaron Brown at the Sooner 15. The Sooner D stiffens, and holds TCU to a field goal.
3. 2nd Quarter TCU fumble on the Sooner 35. The turnover stopped an 11 play, 64 yard drive.
4. 2nd Qtr TCU goes on 4th down on 4th and 4 from the Sooner 42. Jeremy Kerley is sacked on a little trickeration that goes awry.
5. 4th and 4 from the Sooner 14, TCU goes for it. An Andy Dalton pass falls incomplete, and another TCU drive yields zero points.

Overall, TCU got the ball into OU territory 9 times, and came up with 10 points. The drives were field goal, punt, fumble, interception, turnover on downs, TD, turnover on downs, punt, interception.

QBs and Age - An NFL Post

Our long national nightmare is over. Brett Favre has finally been traded. The Pack is probably my second favorite NFL team, courtesy of some friends I made in GB at a previous job.

Courtesy of some research I cobbled together today fromPro-Football-Reference.com here's some info about the top 25 passers in the NFL, based upon pass completions, who played beyond the age of 35, they are classic names like Fouts, Montana, Unitas, Hart, Marino:

Win % by Age:

21-20%

22-27%

23-52%

24-53%

25-50%

26-52%

27-57%

28-59%

29-59%

30-51%

31-62%

32-62%

33-59%

34-56%

35-58%

36-58%

37-61%

38-59%

39-49%

40-37%

41-41%

42-36%

43-0%

44-29%

QBs 39 and over don't have winning records.

5 Qbs started at the age of 38 and didn't return for the season when they turned 39: Elway, Marino, Montana, Tarkenton and Steve Young. Of the QBs that continued, Jim Hart and Phil Simms are the only QBs to have more wins as a starter at the age of 39 than the age of 38; Hart went from 0 wins to 1 (with 2 losses) and Simms returned from an injury to lead the Giants to an 11-5 record. Warren Moon was the only other 39 year old to start the entire season, going 8-8 after a 9-7 campaign. Moon, Testaverde and Unitas are the only QBs to start games into their 40s, and none of them posted a winning record with these three legends - I mean two legends and one long suffering reject - at the helm.

Odds are not in the Jets favor here.

OverAnalyzing the Big 12 Media Picks

Media picks Mizzou as #1 North team, unanimously. I went ahead and did some assumptions on trying to back into how many people picked each team for each slot. Here are my assumptions:

a) Kansas was not picked lower than 3.
b) Mathematically, it's evident not everyone picked Iowa State last. I presumed the 8 voters that chose Iowa State 5th chose Kansas State last.

This means 21 voters picked KU third. Also means they had to pick Nebraska or Colorado as that third team. My estimates say...

• Nebraska was picked 2 (11 times); 3 (15); 4 (20) and 5 (4). If Nebraska finishes the season in 2nd place in the North, they should write a book about Bo Pelini.
• Colorado was slated as follows: 2nd (10); 3rd (15); 4th (17) and 5th (10).
• K-State got 14 4th place votes and 29 5th place votes to go along with 8 last place votes.

Now, for the South. I'm assuming Texas was never picked lower than third.

• The Sooners were picked 1st 49 times and must have received 2nd place votes from the other two voters.
• Texas received the following votes, 1 (2); 2 (22); 3(27).
• Texas Tech received 2 (27); 3 (20) and 4 (4).
• Four voters rated the Pokes as the third place team; the 47 voters who were not under the influence awarded 30 fourth place votes and 17 5th place votes to Boone State.
• Texas A&M was picked 17 times as fourth, 33 times as 5th and once as last.

While I can't confirm this at this time, I have to believe someone gave President Red Andrews a ballot, and that he voted the Bears 5th and the Aggies 6th. If not, let's keep in mind that this same voting bloc chose TE Brody Eldridge as an All-Conference fullback last year.

Will Sam Bradford have a soph slump like My Little Pony?

Got to wondering this today while driving back to work after picking up a copy of Phil Steele's preview. In 07, Bradford shattered (36) McCoy's one-year old record for TDs by a freshman (29). McCoy followed that up with over 3000 yards and 22 TDs, but threw 18 picks. What will Sam do? I respectfully submit my thesis that Bradford will not slump.

Offensive Line Stability - McCoy started 2007 with three new starters on the offensive line, including having to replace two All Big 12 selections. McCoy was sacked 24 times in 07, only 14 in 2006. Bradford returns 6 offensive line starters (with at least six starts) and the top ranked o-line heading into 2008. The unit has accumulated 130 career starts.

Coaching - Longhorn offensive coordinator Greg Davis' best coaching move career to date has been to tear up the playbook and start listening to Vince Young's ipod. After a couple of games last year year, the Horn coaching staff began to realize that McCoy was not VY, and they veered away from zone read and related abuse to McCoy from defenders. The Sooners offensive coaching knows Sam is a drop back passer. The O-line and RBs will be quite sufficient to allow Sam to continue to progress as a top notch QB.

Defense - the Longhorn defense allow 7 pts more per game in 2007 than 2006. This forced McCoy to be more aggressive on the offensive side of the ball and he ended up taking risks that did not pay off. The Sooners will be green in the back seven, but the D line could be special. Assuming Ryan Reynolds stays healthy, and at least one of the highly touted LB recruits pans out, the LB corp will be fine. The linebackers will also be aided by convert Keenan Clayton, who served as an over-agressive safety when on the field the past two years. The DBs will be stabilized by Lendy Holmes and Nic Harris. IMO, Marcus Walker and Reggie Smith did not live up to their recruiting hype, and their loss may not be as big as one would expect.

Criminal Justice - the Horns majored in Criminal Justice studies through most of the summer and early fall workouts, leading to distractions and uncertainty on the team, which led to faulty execution. The night life options are much less tempting in Norman than our neighbors to the south in Austin. The kids just drink in the dorms, so you don't have to drive back home. It's simpler that way.

There's my theory. Read it and weep.

Sooners Receive At Large Bid in Baseball

I was REALLY suprised to see the Sooners get picked for the NCAA tourney, so I decided to do a little research on the topic. I found the handy sight WarrenNolan.com, which made my research so much easier.

• There are 30 teams to receive automatic bids, and 34 at large bids.
• The Sooners RPI ranking was 42; there were six other teams with a lower RPI ranking than OU to receive an at large bid - UCLA (43); Alabama (46); Tulane (48); New Orleans (53); St. John's (54); and UC Davis (58). That made me feel better that we weren't the only stragglers let in.
• Based solely on RPI, here are the teams with the biggest beef: a) Clemson- played the toughest schedule in the land, and had a RPI of 25. They were the highest rated in terms of RPI to be omitted. Other teams with RPI above UC Davis that were left outside were Baylor, Wazzu, K State, College of Charleston, Missouri State, Wake Forest, and defending champion Oregon State.
• The ACC got 6 teams in, and those all had RPIs of 16 or above. The Big 12 had 6 teams as well.
• Teams with fewer losses against weaker competition (less than 20 losses for New Orleans and St. John's against a SOS in the 100s) meant more than a breakeven record against top notch competition, which means weeping and gnashing of teeth for Clemson, Baylor, Washington State and Kansas State.

That concludes today's baseball analysis. And if the Sooners drop out in Tempe over the weekend while I'm on vacation, it'll probably be this year's college baseball analysis.

Thoughts on tonight's games

Memphis - UCLA
Holy cow. Memphis is REALLY good. Rose and CDR are dominant guards. They are tall - they would also be long if they were laying on the floor, but most of the time they are upright, and as a result tall. Please make a note. They are quick. They have decided to make free throws. Dorsey is a great eraser in the middle. They are quick and attack defensively, so someone's always helping when they do make mistakes.

I got really tired of Billy Packer harping on UCLA not getting the ball inside to Kevin Love. He was NEVER open. The reason he wasn't getting the ball was Memphis played great D. During one of these tirades, Chris Douglas-Roberts drove down the baseline and just posterized him.

Another point CONSTANTLY mentioned was the three thirty win seasons by Ben Howland. Which has been done three times, by Adolph Rupp, Calipari and Howland. I decided to see how close Wooden came to that mark. He coached 31 games three times, and that was the most. Memphis will play it's 40th game Monday night.

Kansas - UNC
The Jayhawks played unbelievably well the first 15 minutes, outscoring the Tarheels 40-12. In the next 14 minutes, they were outscored 38-14 to play a 28 point lead down to 4 points. Kansas completely disrespected Tyler Hansbrough, and scored at will inside. Hansbrough is not a shot blocker, and seemed helpless to help on the interior. I hadn't really set and watched Hansbrough for an entire game. I think he will be very successful in a European league.

For the 'consensus National Player of the Year', the line was 17 pts, 9 rebs, 1 assist. To go back to a previous post, Beasley, with a lot less talent around him, went for 39 pts, 11 rebs, 3 blocked shots in a loss at Lawrence, and 25 pts, 6 boards, 2 assists and 1 block in a win over Kansas in Manhattan. On Saturday night, Hansbrough played like the 3rd best oversized Caucasian on the floor, behind Cole Aldrich and Sasha Kaun. Cole Aldrich - who the !#@$!@$ is Cole Aldrich? - blocked 4 shots in 16 minutes. Hansbrough blocked 3 shots cumulatively in the last eight games comprising the ACC and NCAA tournaments.

Thoughts on the Final
Memphis, to me, is playing better. Kansas has more depth. Memphis seems to be tougher. I think it will be a entertaining game. I don't think Kansas has the guards overall to match up with Derrick Rose and CDR. I think it will be an entertaining game, and I can't wait to watch it. Bobby Knight made the point that Kansas played well the first 15 minutes; Memphis has been playing like that the last three games for 40 minutes.

Player of the Year

Today I got my SI for the week. A special shout out to the USPS for deliverying it four days late. Anywho, the cover proclaims Tyler Hansbrough as the POY this year. What a crock. No disrespect to Mr. Hansbrough, who is a great player, but let's compare him to Kansas State's Michael Beasley:

PPG: Beasley 26.5 v 23.1
REB: Beasley 12.5 v 10.5
AST: Beasley 1.2 v 0.9
STL: Hansbrough 1.5 v 1.3
BLK: Beasley 1.7 to 0.3
FG%: Hansbrough .543 v .539
FT%: Hansbrough .813 v .770
3P%: Beasley .395 to .000

In the categories that Beasley wins, he dominates. When Hansbrough wins the comparison, it's by a whisker, with the exception of FT%. When you look at other aspects, North Carolina scores more per game, but Tyler scores less. North Carolina rebounds better, but Tyler rebounds less. Beasley, at 6-10, accounts for almost 1/2 his team's blocked shots. Hansbrough, at 6-9, accounts for less than 10%.

Another component to consider is the team around him. Beasley has Bill Walker as a fellow Rivals 150 top recruit on the Wildcat roster. Hansbrough has 9 other top 150 recruits alongside him. Aside from Beasley, two other Wildcats average double digits. The Tarheels have 3 others averaging 12 points or more.

People mention the intangibles that Hansbrough brings to the team. I don't doubt his attitude, his grit, his effort. Conversely, it's not like Beasley is Stephon Marbury. I've watched a few games and he's a terrific competitor and you don't see him showing up his teammates or anything.

When playing Kansas State plays, you know you have to stop Beasley, and probably Walker. When playing UNC, you have to stop Hansbrough, Ellington, Lawson and Green.

I could probably go on, but I'd be spending more time on a foe's player. I've just been really impressed by Beasley. If we spend too much time praising opponents instead of making fun of them, it just not riiiight.

At Least we beat 'em in Basketball...

First of all, congrats to the Mountaineers. They played the better game tonight and there was no question about the outcome.

On to various thoughts I had during the game.

• If I never saw another Prison Break preview, I would be fine.
• The sideline reporter was wearing WVU colors, which I thought was a nice touch.
• Fox is awful doing college sports. The teams in the booth have no chemistry. There should be some sort of requirement of the BCS broadcasters that they use teams that have worked together throughout the season. I'd never heard of the dude doing play-by-play. I've seen Donahue do studio work. Pat Haden, lackey for NDBC, hadn't seen that much offense all year.
• OU has an All-American left guard, Duke Robinson, flanked by a 350 pound mountain named Phil Loadholt. We ran right ALL NIGHT. I don't know who is on that side of the 'eer defense, or if they were just loading up that side to force us to the right, but it worked.
• The onside kick was not a good call. Completely killed the momentum...we'd had two three and outs defensively to start the half. WVU's onside recovery not only recovered the ball, but it recovered the momentum and OU never got it back.
• I've begun to despise two point conversions. I disagreed with both choices.
• The Sooners alloweed 349 yard rushing. 8.9 yards per carry. Even if you take out the 4TD runs totalling 169 yards, the 'eers gained 4 per carry on the other 35 runs.
• The Sooners have now lost four straight BCS games.
• Stoops teams just don't play the favorite that well. I don't know why, but if the opposition says something to disprespect the Sooners, or if the foes higher ranked, Stoops can work with that. But an underdog that keeps their mouth shut seems to end up with the advantate.
• I thought Brody Eldridge made a phenomenal catch, but it didn't matter.
• The Sooners had 13 penalties for 115 yards. That's unbelieavable. Several of the penalties negated positive plays. I'd love to say the refs jobbed us, but there were at least two blatant holding calls that the stripes missed.
• Quentin Chaney played well tonight, subbing for an injured Malcolm Kelly.
• I thought Devine's two TD scampers were where I saw the impact most clearly of an injured Reggie Smith and an ineligible Lendy Holmes. Both times DBs overran the play and allowed Devine to cut back for scores. That young man is talented, you don't need to help him out like that.
• As poorly as the Sooners played in the first half, I thought they were in good shape to be down ONLY 20-6 at half. I thought it could have easily been more than that. And it was later.
• The Sooners are 1-3 at the Fiesta Bowl, with their last victory coming in 1976. Old timers will remember the loss in 82 to the Sun Devils. Marcus Dupree was running wild until he pulled a hamstring/blew a tire.
• The Sooners have been notoriously slow starters in bowl games of late. The last time the Sooners led at halftime of a bowl game was 2002 at the Rose Bowl against Washington State.

Brief WVU thought

I did some quick analysis of the Mountain Ears. WVU has the 7th ranked defense (points per game) in the country. IMO, that's a little misleading...the best offense they've faced is Cincinnati (14th), then South Florida checks in at 20 and Louisville checks in at 21.

Alternatively, the Sooners are 9th in scoring defense, but played #6 TxTech, #7 Mizzou twice, #10 Tulsa and #19 Texas.

Stats aside, I think this will be a good game. Slaton and White are fun to watch, and it'll be a good challenge for the Sooner D. According to Sagarin's predictor ratings, the Sooners should be around a 3 point favorite. Since the Sooners are followed around by some mad oil and native american casino money, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Sooners as a 5-7 pt favorite.

USA Today Coaches Poll analysis

Some interesting things come out of the USA Today/Coaches poll…

• Oregon coach Mike Belotti voted the Sooners 8th. Missouri, whose two losses were to the Sooners, was ranked 5th.
• Clemson coach Terry Bowden tanked the Sooners 10th, four spots behind Missouri. He’s the only coach to not include the Sooners in the top 8.
• Florida State coach Bobby Bowden has the Sooners 7th, behind 5th place Missouri and 6th place Kansas.
• Louisville (and former Tulsa) coach Steve Kragthorpe voted the Sooners 8th. He at least had the good sense to vote Mizzou 9th.
• Boise State coach Chris Peterson voted the Sooners 7th. He’s apparently not a fan of the Big 12, as he voted Mizzou 9th and Kansas 10th.
• FAU coach Howard Schnellenberger voted the Sooners 7th and the Missouri Tigers 4th. Howie has a unique perspective on the college football landscape…he ranked Boise State 10th and Southern Cal 12th. He’s the only coach to not have the Trojans in the top 10. Given that the University of Washington nearly beat his 3rd ranked team, Hawaii, and beat Boise State, I’m stunned he doesn’t have the Huskies in the top 10.
• Landthieves would like to give a shout out to South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier for the #1 vote.
• It wouldn’t be fair if I didn’t mention Head Visor Bob Stoops voted the Sooners 1 and the LSU Tigers 6th.
• LSU/almost Michigan coach Les Miles voted Georgia 3, Va Tech 4, and Oklahoma 5, so it doesn’t look like he did much maneuvering, other than voting LSU #1.
  
  I’m not foolish enough to believe that this would alter the final standings - I had mentioned earlier in the month that if a two loss team got in the championship game, that LSU would likely have the strongest resume of that group - it would have been much easier just to beat Colorado or Texas Tech, but apparently that wasn’t as easy as one would have hoped.

The Harris Poll has some interesting data points as well, but there's only so much one can do on their lunch hour.

Baylor Hires Art Briles

As I had mentioned earlier this week, I think this is a great choice for Baylor. Around the state and nationally, folks are saying "Good hire" on Briles. One of my fav sites, www.coacheshotseat.com, has a good analysis of Briles that is encouraging to the Bear faithful. Hopefully, Briles will still be there in 8 years when my older daughter gets there. Not that she'll care.

Sooner Title Hopes not dead

Most folks are proclaiming the Sooners national title hopes dead. Well, Dr. Crimson N. Cream is here to tell you the patient is not dead yet, but has some serious life support issues. Here's how those championship hopes could start breathing on their own: (rankings are BCS rankings and point spreads are off of Yahoo! or DMN Monday paper, copied without permission):

• #18 Tennessee, a 3 point underdog, beats unranked Kentucky this weekend.
• #10 Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State.
• #1 Ranked LSU (12.5 pt favorite) loses to Arkansas this weekend , or loses to Tennessee in the SEC Championship game.
• #2 Kansas- #4 Missouri winner loses to #10 Oklahoma.
• West Virginia (17 point favorite) loses to #20 Connecticut, or even less likely, is upset by Pitt the following weekend.
• #11 Southern Cal (3 point favorite) defeats #6 Arizona State.
• #7 Georgia, (3.5 pt favorite) loses on the road to Georgia Tech.
• #8 Virginia Tech ( 3.5 pt favorite), loses either at Virginia this weekend or loses in the ACC championship game to Boston College. Per the Sagarin predictor (also cited blatantly without permission), the Hokies would be a 3 point favorite or so in that game.
• #9 Oregon, a 2 pt favorite, loses to UCLA at home this weekend, or they lose to their 7-4 intrastate rival Oregon State the following weekend.

With the scenario, I believe you'd have an 11-2 Sooner team as a Big 12 champion playing Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl.

Here are the most unlikely elements of this, according to point spreads:

• should Tennessee upset Kentucky, they'll likely be a 14 pt underdog to LSU
• West Virginia is a 17 point favorite at home against #20 Connecticut.

The other on the field elements all involve games where the point spread is less than 4, and as a result, are quite possible.

The other big hurdle, in my opinion, would be the human poll voters. I perceive, through my crimson and cream colored glasses, a bit of bitterness toward the LandThieves for backing into the national championship game in 2003 and failing to show up at the Orange Bowl following the 2004 season. If a voter realized the Sooners were poised to be the two loss team to play the Sweatervests, they might "vote down" the Sooners and choose another two loss team as the #2 team. Looking at the other two loss teams at that point, you'd have:

• LSU, with losses at Kentucky and to Tennessee/Arkansas
• West Virgnia, with losses to Connecticut and South Florida
• Arizona State, with losses to USC and Cal
• Oklahoma, with losses to Colorado and Texas Tech
• USC with losses to Oregon and Stanford
• Texas, with losses to Oklahoma and Kansas State

Looking at losses only, LSU is the team that lost to the most formidable foes. Because of this, from a Sooner perspective, I think it's important for LSU to beat Arkansas then lose to Tennessee. A loss to Arkansas and then a victory at the SEC Champ game would probably leave poll voters putting LSU ahead of the Sooners.

Also, if Missouri beats Kansas, you'd have a one loss Kansas team - who didn't win their division and might not beat a team that ends the year with a record above .500 - that might be ranked higher than the Sooners. I don't think that's likely, though, as the Sooners would have at least beaten Texas (9-2 or 10-3), and Missouri (11-2 with both losses to OU), and I think Kansas will be punished severely if they lose to their one premier foe of the season.

Now, you can take this checklist with you on your Thanksgiving trip and you'll know just how to root for the games this weekend.