Texas after an OU Loss

As a closet Husker fan and natural rival to the Horns, I have a morbid fascination with today's game between the two, so here it goes:


Read a post online from Doc Saturday's cfb site yesterday quoting Mack Brown on the changes they are making to the offense after the Sooner loss. (We can't run, look! Garrett can sling it around pretty good).

As a personal comment on Mack's revelation, if you spend time "establishing the run" when you can't really run, all you've done is establish that you need to pass. If the defense figures that out at the same time, or earlier, than you do, it spells trouble.

Anywho, back to the post. In my opinion, this spells trouble for the Bugeaters today. The Horns have shown an ability to rebound dramatically after miserable showing against the Sooners.

To demonstrate:

• In 2000, Texas lost 14-63 to OU, and proceeded to run the table on the rest of the Big 12 (6-0), with their next loss being n the Holiday Bowl to Oregon.
• In 2001, Texas looked offensively inept against the Sooner D, losing 3-14. They ran the table in the regular season again (6-0), and lost the Big 12 Championship game to Colorado.
• In 2002, Texas lost 24-35 to OU, then won 4 in a row before falling to Tech in Lubbock.
• In 2003, Texas lost 13-65, then won 6 in a row before losing the Holiday Bowl.
• In 2004, Texas lost 0-12, then won their next 6 regular season games.
• In 2007, Texas lost 21-28, then won 5 in a row before losing to Texas A&M.

So, in a nutshell, the Horns have gone 34-2 in conference play after losing to OU. Under Mack, they've never lost a game immediately after playing the Sooners. Conversely, only once have they had to follow a Sooner loss with a game against a ranked opponent (2002, when the beat 17th ranked KSU 17-14 in Manhattan.

Will an improved Horn offense be enough to overcome the Blackshirts in Lincoln. Hard to imagine. Defensively, however, I'm curious to see how Taylor Martinez fares against the speed and quickness of the Horns.

Prediction: Nebraska 17, Texas 14.

Tale of the Tape - Aggies vs Hogs

Work and family schedules precluded me giving this proper coverage earlier this week, but I wanted to do a little preview of a game involving two of the most dysfunctional and loyal fan bases in college football, Arkansas and Texas A&M.

How'd they get the name? Arkansas: After an undefeated season in 1909, Coach Hugo Bezdek referred to his team as a "wild band of Razorbacks" and the name caught on. Hog fans have NOT caught on to the fact that they've only had one undefeated season since 1909, in 1964 when Barry Switzer was an assistant and Boss Hog Jerry Jones was a player on the team. Cash Machine U: It's Texas Agricultural and Mechanical University. While some believe that the Aggies moniker is Greek for "abuser of sheep", that is just a rumor. It's a tribute to the school's agricultural roots. Gearheads just doesn't roll off the tongue, so they went with Aggies. Edge: Aggies.
Returning Starters: Texas A&M 10 on offense / 6 on defense; Arkansas 8 on offense / 10 on defense. Edge: Arkansas
NFL Passing Yards by Alums: Arkansas 41,090; A&M 9,157. I'm excluding former Razorback Tarvaris Jackson from this tally, as he transferred to Alabama State and improved the quarterback play at both schools. Edge: Arkansas, courtesy of Buffalo Bill great Joe Ferguson.
NFL Draft History: Arkansas 243; Texas A&M: 258. Edge: Arkansas
Best NFL Player: Arkansas: Pat Summerall; Texas A&M: Yale Lary. Edge: Arkansas. I went with Summerall over NFL HOFs Lance Allworth and Dan Hampton because Summerall wins the Best Voice and Best Recovering Alchololic portion of the contest as well. Both schools have fairly storied college fb programs, but not many elite NFLers come out of the pack. If you disagree, see Mcelroy, Leeland. Edge: Arkansas
Hot/Cold: Arkansas: Cold. The Hogs have allowed 77 points in two games against 1-A opponents. Texas A&M: Overheated. Courtesy of the mediocre defenses played by the Aggies, Cash Machine U is hot, but cool faster than a plate of scrambled eggs. Edge: Aggies.
Random Stat: The defensive ranking of A&M foes year-to-date: 107, 117, 116. Arkansas is a veritable defensive juggernaut at 91. Edge: Aggies
Random Stat 2: Texas A&I has more NFL Hall of Famers than Texas A&M. Gene Upshaw and Darrell Green starred for Texas A&I back in the day. Edge: Arkansas
How we see it: this game has fluctuated between a pick'em and Arkansas as a 1 point favorite. Arkansas is 1-2, but has played teams you've heard of in Alabama and Georgia. For some reason, I think Arkansas is going to win this, though I'll be pulling for the Aggies. The battle of the Aggies and Hogs in the seats will be an interesting part of the game as well. Prediction: Arkansas

Sooners-Fightin Mormons Preview

Line: Sooners by 22
How’d they get the name: The Brigham Young University Cougars were named after a group of 40 something Mormon women desperately seeking college males. The BYU students enjoyed the raunchy, forbidden times so much they named their athletic teams after the ladies.
Returning Starters: 4 on offense, 8 on defense
NFL Passing Yards by Alums:80,928, which outpaces the Sooners by over 77,000 yards.
Best NFL Player: Steve Young, with Jim McMahon a close second.
Draft History: Cougars have had 136 players drafted by the NFL
Hot / Cold: The Cougars are coming off a rousing trip to Palo Alto for the National Cougar Convention.
The skinny: The Fighting Mormons are led by Max Hall, a top 10 QB. Unfortunately for Max, he only has one starting offensive lineman returning. A couple of them are returning from Mormon missions. If the mission was to Gold’s Gym on Venice Beach, perhaps they’ll have a chance. The defense returns 8 starters off of last year’s squad, and is led by MLB Matt Bauman.

Random stat from the teams: The Sooners are 0-1 against BYU. There are only 23 programs that have beaten the Sooners more than once.

How LandThieves sees it: The Sooners should win this game, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Cougars cover the 22 point spread. This is a great first game test, and I’m fired up about seeing it in Jerry World. In the end, I think the veteran d-line of the Sooners should dominate the inexperienced 24 year old, caffeine deprived Cougar offensive line. This will give the Sooners a change to avenge two horrific losses by the Sooners 1) the butt kicking the 1984 Washington Huskies gave the Sooners, who were despondent over the Cougars 12-0 season over a bunch of hacks in the WAC; 2) the six pack the Cougars opened up on the Sooners in the 1994 Copper Bowl, the last game of the Gary Gibbs era.

All 2009 Big 12 games predicted

I'm sure you were just sitting around today thinking, "wouldn't it be great if LandThieves would publish predictions for each game involving a Big 12 team"?

You weren't? Well, here it is anyway.

09-03
Iowa State defeats North Dakota State

09-05
Colorado defeats Colorado State
Baylor defeats Wake Forest
Nebraska defeats Florida Atlantic
Oklahoma defeats BYU
Texas defeats Louisiana-Monroe
Kansas defeats Northern Colorado
Georgia defeats Oklahoma State
Illinois defeats Missouri
Texas A&M defeats New Mexico
Texas Tech defeats North Dakota
Kansas State defeats Massachusetts

09-11
Toledo defeats Colorado

09-12
Iowa defeats Iowa State
Missouri defeats Bowling Green
Nebraska defeats Arkansas State
Oklahoma defeats Idaho State
Kansas State defeats Louisiana-Lafayette
Oklahoma State defeats Houston
Texas defeats Wyoming
Texas Tech defeats Rice
Kansas defeats UTEP

09-19
UCLA defeats Kansas State
Colorado defeats Wyoming
Missouri defeats Furman
Oklahoma State defeats Rice
Oklahoma defeats Tulsa
Baylor defeats Connecticutt
Virginia Tech defeats Nebraska
Kansas defeats Duke
Texas A&M defeats Utah State
Iowa State defeats Kent State
Texas defeats Texas Tech

09-25
Nevada defeats Missouri

09-26
Iowa State defeats Army
Nebraska defeats Louisiana-Lafayette
Oklahoma State defeats Grambling State
Baylor defeats Northwestern State
Texas defeats UTEP
Kansas defeats Southern Miss
Kansas State defeats Tennessee Tech
Texas A&M defeats UAB
Texas Tech defeats Houston

10-01
West Virginia defeats Colorado

10-03
Arkansas defeats Texas A&M
Iowa State defeats Kansas State
Baylor defeats Kent State
Oklahoma defeats Miami (FL)
Texas Tech defeats New Mexico

10-08
Nebraska defeats Missouri

10-10
Oklahoma defeats Baylor
Texas defeats Colorado
Kansas defeats Iowa State
Texas Tech defeats Kansas State
Oklahoma State defeats Texas A&M

10-17
Kansas defeats Colorado
Baylor defeats Iowa State
Nebraska defeats Texas Tech
Oklahoma State defeats Missouri
Texas defeats Oklahoma
Texas A&M defeats Kansas State

10-24
Texas defeats Missouri
Nebraska defeats Iowa State
Oklahoma State defeats Baylor
Oklahoma defeats Kansas
Colorado defeats Kansas State
Texas Tech defeats Texas A&M

10-31
Missouri defeats Colorado
Texas defeats Oklahoma State
Oklahoma defeats Kansas State
Nebraska defeats Baylor
Texas Tech defeats Kansas
Texas A&M defeats Iowa State

11-07
Texas A&M defeats Colorado
Oklahoma State defeats Iowa State
Baylor defeats Missouri
Oklahoma defeats Nebraska
Texas defeats Central Florida
Kansas defeats Kansas State

11-14
Colorado defeats Iowa State
Oklahoma State defeats Texas Tech
Oklahoma defeats Texas A&M
Texas defeats Baylor
Nebraska defeats Kansas
Missouri defeats Kansas State
11-19
Oklahoma State defeats Colorado

11-21
Missouri defeats Iowa State
Nebraska defeats Kansas State
Texas defeats Kansas
Texas Tech defeats Oklahoma
Baylor defeats Texas A&M

11-26
Texas defeats Texas A&M

11-27
Nebraska defeats Colorado

11-28
Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State
Texas Tech defeats Baylor
Kansas defeats Missouri

Big 12 Championship Game
Texas beats Nebraska

Big 12 Media Poll 2009

Last year, I broke down the pre-season media poll for your. This year, it's a little tougher, as the math doesn't work, but the LandThieves Investigative Team is on the case. Here are some quick highlights from the release:

• Only 32 votes this year, as opposed to 51 last year.
• 31 of 32 voters picked Texas A&M last in the South.
• Baylor has several fourth place selections as well, my guess is around 12 writers selected Baylor 4th, with Tech 5th.
• OU and Texas were picked tied for first. I don't know what the tie-breaker format is for the Preseason poll. Mack Brown will be politicking to be declared the champion on College Football Live later today, I'm sure.
• Four voters picked someone other than OU and Texas to be in second place. These votes appear to be split between Boone State and the Dust Pirates.

In the North:

• Three voters selected Missouri for first. These voters must have mistakenly mailed in last year's ballot.
• Iowa State was the nearly unanimous pick for last in the division, with the Wildcats presumably garnering the other last place vote.
• While Nebraska and Kansas were selected the top 2 teams in the North, there were at least ten writers that has someone else in the 2 slot.
• Second place in the Big 12 North is a crapshoot to figure out without the detail of number of votes for each team for each slot. However, from the information I could back into, it looks like Colorado had the most second place votes, and the most fifth place votes.

With the handing chads/math mistake, it's tough to break down with more certainty.

As the LandThieves Investigate Team finds out more on this story, we'll keep you advised.

For The Wagerer in You

I saw these early betting lines this morning at the Barking Carnival and selected a few to share thoughts on:

• Boone State is a 3 point favorite to Georgia - the Pokes are one of the "sleeper" picks that everyone is picking. Which doesn't make them much of a sleeper. If Gundy's boys win this, they'll be favored in the following six games and likely be 7-0 when they host Texas. I would take Georgia and the points.
• Oklahoma is a 21 point favorite to BYU - that's a pretty beefy spread to a 10-3 team that has a bunch of 24 years olds on the roster. The Fightin Mormons return Max Hall as he pursues a PhD. I would pick the Sooners to win, but not to cover.
• Oklahoma is a 10 point favorite on the road at Miami - if Miami ever gets an offensive philosophy again - and they might with new OC Mark Whipple, this is a tough spread to cover. Nonetheless, I'll take the Sooners and give points.
• Oklahoma is a 3 point underdog to Texas. This seems about right to me, though I'd take the Sooners and the points.
• Boone State is a 7 point underdog to Texas at home. The last two games ahve been settled by a total of 7 points, both Horn victories. Take Boone State and the points.
• Oklahoma is a 9.5 favorite at Nebraska - 9.5 is a big spread on the road, but I believe in my Sooners.
• Oklahoma is a 9 point favorite at Texas Tech - The Sooners last won in Lubbock in 2003. It could happen again, but I would take the Dust Pirates and the points.
• Oklahoma is a 10.5 point favorite at home vs Boone State. In Norman, Stoops Sooners have won by 37, 43, 28 and 32, and lost by 3 to a Les Miles coached squad. Take Sooners and give the points.

As always the above predictions are for amusement purposes only. I'd be a skinny gambler.

2009 EARLY Preview

BYU in Dallas - if Bradford comes back, this is a W. If Bradford doesn't, we starting an inexperienced QB in a season opener against a Mountain West foe. We've done that before. Tossup, if Bardford goes, W if he stays.
at Miami - Randy Shannon has a new offensive coordinator, and he needs it. We should be able to beat the Canes in South Florida. W.
Some spare unnamed 1-AA opponent at home. W.
Tulsa - Todd Graham continues to honor his week-old 10 year contract extension. The Sooners should get a W here.
Baylor - at home, we get a W.
Texas - I've done some statistical modeling, and Ryan Reynolds is not projected to blow a knee out until the Kansas Game. W.
at Phog U - The heart of a struggling Jayhawk D unit was their LBs, and they are losing several of them. W.
Willie and Friends - Bill Snyder's not going to turn in around in a day. W.
at Bugeaters - The Husker O returns three starters next year. W.
Cash Machine U - I think the Aggies will be better in 09, but they're not beating OU in Norman next year. W.
at Dust Pirates - We've lost two in a row in Lubbock. L.
Boone State - these games have been close in Stillwater. In Norman, not so much. W.

That leaves the Sooners 11-1, which would likely give them an eighth Big 12 championship.

National Predictions

Jay Christensen at the Wiz of Odds lists 36 different predictions here. 32 of 36 prognosticators pick the Gators, with an average score of 36-28.

Dang. I hope all but 4 of them are wrong.

The LandThieves BCS NCG Preview

Breaking away from poetry to write a bit more about this one.

Florida defense vs Oklahoma offense: there’s much ado about Florida’s speed, and their ability to cover, rush the passer, etc. Texas has speed and pass rush ability, as does TCU. This has proven out in pre and postseason nonconference games. While Texas didn’t knock anyone’s socks off last night in the Fiesta Bowl, it wasn’t the lack of speed that got them in trouble, it was power running and a slippery dual threat QB that kept TOSU in the game. In the TCU game, Bradford was 19-34 for 411 yards and 4 TDs. Granted, some of that was aided by two slips by TCU defenders. Let’s look at the Texas game, another game against a topflight D. In that game, Bradford was 28-39 for 387 yards, 5 TDs and 2 interceptions. The second interception was a throw into the end zone as time expired on a ten point loss. In the loss, Bradford averaged 10 yards per attempt and completed almost 72% of his passes. The question at hand will be Oklahoma’s ability to run the ball. Against UT, the Sooners compiled 13 total rushing yards, and lost the time of possession battle 37 to 23. OU has run the ball better since then, but really hasn’t played teams that were adept at stopping the run. Against TCU, the Sooners rushed for 36 yards. If Florida can stuff the run, and make OU a pass-only offense, then they will be able to take control of the game and get Bradford more on the run. Alternatively, looking at Florida’s stats tells you they are better pass defenders than run defenders. Teams were able to run the ball semi-well against the Gators gaining between 3-5 yards / carry in most games, but the Gator D shut down their passing games. Aside from the loss to Ole Miss and, the Gator’s foes were averaging 3-5 yards per attempt. If OU is getting 5 yards per attempt, that’s going to get you in trouble. It seems kind of simple to say, but if OU can run the ball effectively and make the Gators play run and pass defense, Bradford can lead the O to score some points. If Chris Brown and Mossis Madu can’t find anywhere to run, it’ll be a long night in Miami.

Oklahoma defense vs the Florida offense: I think this is a difficult matchup for the Sooners. The Sooner defensive stats are somewhat misleading, but make no mistake, this is not the 85 Sooners. The Gator strength is running the ball and having a balanced attack. The Gators have four backs with more than 50 carries that average more than 7 yards per carry. Speed is the name of the game, as 3 of the four weigh in at less than 200 pounds. That’s probably better for the Sooners, ad I don’t think they would matchup well vs a power running game. The Sooner D allowed only 2.4 yards per carry in the first half this year, which is pretty solid. The second half was a different story, with the Sooners allowing 4.05 yards per carry then. Why were the better against the run in the first half than the second? I don’t know. I know many of the games were over by then. Oklahoma has to shut down their running game, then get pressure on the passer. However, Tebow is difficult to bring down.
What the Sooner D lacked in domination was made up for in turnover margin. The Sooner D was excellent this year at third down conversions and creating turnovers. Why was that the case? One, I believe the Sooner D is quick, and most years have been ball-hawking types of units, and two, the proficiency of the Sooner offense forced the opponent to take chances and force the ball where they otherwise may not. On the contrary, Florida takes care of the ball well and is 13th in the country in third down conversions.

At the end of the day, the Sooners D performance in the last three BCS games has been atrocious, allowing 55, 43 and 48 points. And statistically, I believe those teams were better than this one. That leaves it up to the offense. I don’t think the Sooners can trade scores with the Gators, as I think the Gator D is more likely to stop the Sooner O than the Sooner D is likely to stop the Gator O. So, I’m not feeling very warm and fuzzy at this point.

How could I rationalize a surprise performance by the Sooner D?

• Frank Alexander. FA has been a beast since he returned from a stabbing after the UTC game in late August. His pressure from the defensive end spot could be critical.
• Experience. The Sooners had three first year starters in the LB this year. Now, it’s the end of the season, they’ve had a season of experience, and another month of practice at the end.
• Motivation. Stoops plays the underdog really well. All this talk about no defense, and the Sooners not being able to keep up with the Gators, will hopefully be a motivation factor to Stoops, Venables and the player to have a superior performance.

What do I think will happen? Florida victory, 45-35, and I'm hoping I'm wrong.

Your Predictions for Today

I know you wish I would have analyzed the Ball State -Buffalo matchup, but I missed that one yesterday. Your MAC Champions are coached by former Husker great Turner Gill, who will probably make some serious coin this year in the transition from Buffalo to Syracuse/Washington/Auburn or replacing whichever coach jumps to those jobs.

On to the previews:

Conf USA Championship - Tulsa plays East Carolina. Skip Holtz's Pirates - which are really terrorists at sea so why are we glorifying them? You don't hear of a school calling themselves the UC-Irvine Suicide Bombers. Anyway, back to the preview. ECU started the year off by beating Virginia Tech and West Virginia. Later we realized those teams weren't any good. Tulsa started off 8-0, then lost to SEC doormat Arkansas and were sestroyed by Kevin Sumlin's Houstan Cougar team. Tulsa has better passing stats than OU. I look for Tulsa to win this game, for Todd Graham to renegotiate his contract on Monday and take a new job on Wednesday. Actual results may vary. Prediction: Tulsa

ACC Championship - Va Tech plays BC. Can't you can just feel the excitement? Nope, me either. Tickets for this game are selling like hotcakes - you can get a stack of four for about $5, with eggs and your choice of toast, english muffin or biscuit. Prediction: Loss of consciousness, and a BC victory.

SEC Champsionship - This game means a lot. Not only is it likely for a spot in the BCS NCG, it's also a duel that has Cristin Duren's soul in torment. Ms. Duren was Miss Florida, but a Bama cheerleader. Florida is a double digit favorite in this game. While we were unable to get Ms. Duren to preview the matchup, we did obtain this quote from spokeperson Lauren Caitlin Upton, "Cristin is just broken up. She can't decide who to root for. Her mascara won't stop running. Mark Gottfried has his New Improved Tide team playing at pre-1993 probation levels, and Gator coach Rural Meyer is just so dreamy. And that Todd Tebow has such big muscles! He can play doctor with me any time." Thanks for the insight. Prediction: Alabama.

OU-Mizzou - here are links to two articles that tell you how Missouri might upsets the Sooners, but go on to predict 20+ point victories. I didn't know John Kerry did sportswriting. Prediction: Oklahama

USC-UCLA - OJ's got a better chance on appeal than UCLA does in this game. Prediction: USC.

TT vs OU preview

Okay, here's my treatise on OU vs the Dust Pirates. The Sooners are a 6.5 points favorite, which seems a bit high to me. The over under on the game is 56 I believe, which seems low to me.

Coach Switzer has indicated that OU shoudl win, because they have better players. What Switzer is missing is that the game is a collection of players as a team, not individual players. He's also missing that TT is not just a scrappy bunch of ragtag rejects, but has some serious players. It's also about how the coaches play their strengths against the other teams weakness(es).

Anyway, here are some statisics that I submit for your review, which exclude the 1-aa games.

TT averages almost 47 points a game, while their foes have averaged surrendering 30.4 ppg and a standard deviation of 15.3. They typically exceed their foes average pts surrendered by 1 standard deviation. Since the Sooners average giving up 26 ppg with a standard deviation of 11.9, that would pt the predicted points given up as 38 points.

OU averages almost 51 points per game, while their foes have averaged surrendering 27.8 with a standard deviation of 14.6. The Sooners have typically exceeded their foes average points surrendered by 1.75 standard deviation. Since the Red Raiders average giving up 23 points per games with a standard deviation of 12, one could expect the Sooners to score around 44 points.

Isolating the games to be against 5 common foes, the Sooners averaged 53 points against defenses giving up 30. Their defense gave up 33 points to teams averaging 34 points.

The Dust Pirates average scoring 48 points versus the 30 surrendered. The Red Raider defense gave up 28 points per game.

So, in a nutshell, the Red Raider defense is better than the Sooner defense. The Sooner offense is better than the Red Raider O. The Sooners are at home.

So, with that analysis, I'll predict the score to be 45-38 Sooners.

Weekend Previews - Nov 15

This week is a bit of a downer after three weeks of top 10 teams playing one another. Let’s get to the previews:

Texas at Kansas – the Longhorns last visit to Lawrence was highlighted by two TDs in the last 4:11 by the Horns and Mangino claims of a conspiracy to get the Longhorns into the BCS. The Jayhawks are reeling from recent losses to OU, TT and NU, with the only salve being the victory against Kansas State. Texas is looking for “style points” a politically correct term to say, “hoping to mercilessly run up the score to woo voters” as the most difficult potion of their schedule is behind them and the Red Raiders and Sooners are playing more high profile games in the next two weeks. The Longhorns will be playing with their third string center, courtesy of injuries combined with Burk Burnett’s dismissal due to racial slurs on a facebook site. Kansas D isn’t even up to Big 12 standards. Prediction: Texas

Nebraska at Kansas State – these games were something to behold in the early days of the Big 12 North. Now, not so much. The first ten games in this series after the Big 12 started in 96 went 5-5, with Nebaska outscoring KSU 295-291. Nebraska outscored KSU 94-34 the last two years, and were so enamored with their coach they fired him. Kansas State hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record this year, and the Bugeaters are 6-4. Prediction: Nebraska

TAMU at Baylor – if Baylor beats TAMU, there’s one voter in the Big 12 that had it correct in the preseason, and the Bears would likely finish fifth in the South division. The Right Revered Robert had his worst game of the season last week against Texas. He’s likely to rebound against a Wrecking Crew defense that is only wrecking the alumni base. Against common foes (OU, OSU, ISU), Baylor has a scoring deficit of 61-93, while TAMU’s scoring deficit against those common foes is 105-157. Prediction: Baylor

Missouri at Iowa State – with a Tiger W and a Jayhawk loss to Texas, Missouri could clinch the Big 12 North prior to the Border War contest later this month. The Cyclones have lost their last eight. This one will be nine. Prediction: Mizzou

Boone State at Colorado – in one of the most misleading stats I’ve found so far, Colorado is 5-1 in home games this year, with the only loss being to Texas. Their last four victories at home have been by a combined margin of 15 points. Those Ws have been against juggernauts Eastern Washington, West Virginia, Kansas State and Iowa State. I’m sure the pundits at ESPN are calling this a trap game for OSU, as it lies between the Texas Tech loss last week and their Bedlam rivalry game the Saturday after Thanksgiving. Plus, they want you to tune in and watch. I still see the Pokes winning this one. Prediction: Boone State

Cash Machine U Preview

When TAMU has the ball - Jerrod Johnson seems to have figured it out behind center for the Aggies. In 3 of the last 4 games, he's completed 66+% of his passes. Johnson's favorite targest are Ryan Tannehill and Jeff Turner. Look for them to have nice stats against the Sooner D this week. The Sooners seem to have figured it out a little bit last week against the Huskers, but frankly the D is surviving on turnovers and 3rd down defense at this point. Johnson has not thrown an interception since the Okie State game on Oct 4, when he threw two pick sixes.

When OU has the ball - The Aggies struggle on D this year, ranking 104th in total defense in 102nd in scoring defense. They don't get much pressure on the passer and they haven't forced a lot of turnovers. This doesn't bode well against the Sooners, who've been quite explosive this year. DeMarco's running it well, and Sam's throwing it well. I think the Sooners will score a bit.

Overall - this game will be closer than you think. Odd stat for you: in the five games Stoops has coached against the Aggies in Norman, the average score is 47-12, with the Sooners winning all 5. The average score in Collge Station is 30-28, with the Sooners going 3-1. The largest MOV in the four games has been the 42-35 Sooner victory in 2004. I expect the Sooners to win this one as well, but I don't expect them to win by double digits. Final Score prediction: 42-35, Sooners.

Better Late than never

Here are your wknd previews:

Baylor at Texas - Baylor last won in Austin in 1991. Texas enjoyed the experience so much they fired David McWilliams at the end of the season. Mackovic survived his first loss to Baylor in 1992, but the second in 1997 in part contributed to his dismissal. With the stock market as it is, Texas can not afford to pay Mack off to ride into the sunset, so look for the officials to tilt the game in favor of the Longhorns. Prediction: Texas

Iowa State at Colorado - Prediction: Loss of conciousness.

Kansas at Nebraska - you have to turn the clock back to 1968 to find the last time the Jayhawks travelled to Lincoln and came out with a win. In the 19 games in Lincoln since then, the Bugeaters ahve outscored the Jayhawks 807-178. Mangino has begun to realize the steak of his labor there in Lawrence, however. Prediction: Kansas.

Kansas St at Missouri - look for Ron Prince's troops to rally around him and challenge the Tigers. This means Mizzou might score less than 50, the first time K sTate holds someone below 50 in four games. Prediction: Missouri.

Poor Man's Texas Tech at Texas Tech - who predicted these two teams would have two of the three best defenses in the conference this year? You? You're lying. OSU is 2nd in scoring D and TT is 3rd. They hold those same rankings for pass efficiency D. Oddly enough, I think those defenses are the key to the game, as the offenses are different, yet are wildy effective this year. Boone State will be looking for their first victory in Lubbock since Barry Switzer was in elementay school. Okie State has the edge on special teams, but I believe the other areas are even. I'm going to pick...the home team. Prediction: Texas Tech.

OU-NU Preview

When Oklahoma has the ball - Bradford is 3rd in the nation in pass efficiency and has been lighting it up this year. Demarco Murray seems to have found his groove a little bit running the ball as well. Nebraska is in the middle of the pack in defensive statistics. To their credit, they held the Red Raiders to only 31 points in Lubbock during regulation play, but that was in part to controlling time of possession for 40 minutes. I don't think the Bugeater D will be able to stop the Sooner O with any level of regularity.
When Oklahoma punts the ball - when this does happen, OU sucks at it this year. The Sooners are 106th in net punting. Our best punting play is when pressure on punter Mike Knall allows his to display his Academy Award level acting skills. Conversely, the Huskers are 14th in the nation in punt returns. Nate Swift has led the way, with 7 punt returns for 121 yards. It says something that Nebraska has only returned 13 punts so far.
When Oklahoma kicks the ball - I'll close my eyes again this week. As much practice as Ou gets kicking off, you'd think we'd be better at it. The Sooners are 109th in KO return defense. Only 11 of the 66 kicks have been toucbacks. Nebraska is 32nd in KO returns. Look for that to improve this week. Alternatively, here are the top 10 teams in KO return defense this year: FishEasters, LSU, UNC, La Tech, Troy, K State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Marshall ,Western Michigan and Temple.
When Nebraska has the ball - statistically, Joe Ganz is the 6th best passer in the Big 12, which ranks him 9th nationally, excluding the Big 12. The Bugeaters are 12th nationally in passing yards per game, and 29th in scoring offense. The rushing offense average 4.3 yards per game, which ranks 53rd. Marlon Lucky leads the way when the N rushes the ball. Nate Swift is Ganz's favorite receiving target, and has 100+ yards receiving in each of the last two games. As far as defense goes, the Sooners are now struggling in conference play, courtesy of the offenses in the conference and the inabilty to replace Reynolds in the middle of the D. Going into Texas, OU had the 1st ranked defense in passing efficiency and was 15th in scoring D. Three weeks later, the Sooners are 33rd in pass efficiency and 50th in scoring D. Nebraska should move the ball okay. The trick to the Sooners D is getting the offense to 3rd down. the Sooners continue to be solid defensively on 3rd down, ranking 6th in the nation.
When Nebraska punts the ball - the Bugeaters are even worse in net punting than the Sooners, ranking 118th. The Huskers are 76th in punt return D. The Sooners are 46th in punt returns, climbing the charts after Ryan Broyles return for a score last week. The Sooners have been rotating Franks, Iglesias and Broyles in there, but now taht Broyles is 12th in the nation, he may get back there all the time. It's rare this year that the Sooners find a team worse than them on special teams, but we may have found one in Nebraska.
When Nebraska kicks the ball, they are 77th in ko return defense. The Sooners are 14th in the natino in kickoff returns. DeMarco Murray and Juaquin Iglesias both average just over 24 yards per return.


In summation: 45-21, Sooners.

Weekend Preview 11-1-08

Lots of good games this weekend, in conference and in other places:


First, the Big XII...

Travis County Detention Facility at Dust Pirates: Texas Tech has lost the last two to Texas played in Lubbock. The last time the REd Raiders lost three in a row at home to Texas was 1962, 64 and 66. I expect TT to be able to move the ball against the Horns. What I'm not certain of is the ability of the Red Raider to stop Texas, as no one really has yet, with the exception of the Boone State Cowboys. And I've never typed that statement before in my life. While I'll be rooting for Leach and his Pirates to keep my Big 12 South championship hopes alive, I'm skeptical of the outcome. That being said, a TT is allowing fewer yards per play, and plays better 3rd down defense. Prediction: Texas Tech

Phog U vs Willie and Friends: This is a big game in Kansas. We're not in Kansas. End of preview. Prediction: Kansas.

Missouri at Baylor: The Bears have yet to beat the Tigers in Big 12 play. Missouri seemed to wake up a little bit against CU Later last week. While the B is improving, it's tough to see the Bears re-enacting their 1991 victory over Missouri in Waco. Mainly because Missou was 3-7-1 that year. Prediction: Missouri

CU Later at Cash Machine U: the Buffs are coming off a shellacking at the hands of the Tigers last week. TAMU has found a QB in Jerrod Johnson, and the receivers are performing. It's good to know the Aggies are getting their offensive groove in time for the Sooners to come to town. Prediction: Aggies.

Iowa State at Poor Man's Texas Tech: the Cyclones have won 3 of the last 4 vs Boone State. The Pokes are favored by 31 in this matchup, so look for the Cyclones to make it 3 of 5. Iowa State cemented its status as the worst team in the Big 12 with it's loss to TAMU last week. Prediction: Boone State


Now, other games of interest:

Tulsa at Arkansas - this game intrigues me because it's the closest thing to a real foe that Tulsa will play this year, since they backed out of playing TT. Arkansas may or may not be a real foe, however. This some sort of disfunctional grudge match element to this, with Gus Malzahn returning to Fayetteville, where he was paid to coach, but was not allowed to coach, for a year in 2006. And, the coach that left him hanging is gone. So maybe he's bitter about a text msg from a fan? I dunno. I'm interested to see how the Golden Hurricane fares against a BCS conference team, even if it's a weak one. Prediciton: Tulsa.

Florida at Georgia: Much ado about how the Gators will respond to the TD celebration the Dawgs did last year. Who knows. I do know the game will be a good one. The series record is 37-46-2 in the favor of Georgia, but Florida is 15-3 over the last 18. The last time Georgia won two in a row was 1988-89. The Florida coach for the 89 game was Gary Darnell, who was the interim coach after former Sooner coach Galen Hall left. Prediction: Florida.

Bucknell at Holy Cross: I may have to wear my Bucknell hat for this titanic matchup. Prediction: midterms.

Big 12 Predictions - Oct 25

• Baylor at Nebraska - The last time Baylor won in Nebraska, Bob Barker wasn't on TV. the resistable force meets the movable object. The Bugeaters have lost two in a row at home, and Baylor is 0-2 on the road. Nebraska is mediocre at pass defense and Baylor is below average passing. I think the Ganz led Bugeater offense is too much for even my Art Briles man crush to ignore. Pick: Nebraska.
• Poor Man's Texas Tech at Texas - Boone State last beat Texas on Oct 4, 1997. To show you how long ago that was, if you'd invested $100 in a Dow Jones Industrial average index (8038.58) on the Friday before that victory, you would now have $106. Conversely, if you'd have invested $100 with Boone Pickens, he probably would have screwed you out of it and donated the money to Oklahoma State Athletics. But seriously, folks, Texas is really good. Okie State hasn't won there since 1944. Oklahoma State - for the first time since JJ was there in the early 80s - is making big plays in big games. Beating Missouri on the road opened my eyes. I'm interested to see if Boone State can break the code on slowing down Colt McCoy. But I don't think it will happen. Pick: Texas
• Cash Machine U at Baylor North - scary stat in the DMN this week...Iowa State has been outscored 108-30 since the halftime of the KU game. And their favored by 3 1/2 against TAMU. The Cyclones are 0-3 in the conference and haven't started out 0-4 since...last year. TAMU is 0-3 in the conference, and the last time that happened the Aggies were probably either distracted by the death of Jimi Hendrix or the birth of the Ford Pinto (1970). These Aggies are reeling, but so is Iowa State. I look for Sherman to pull of a W here. Pick: Aggies.
• Dust Pirates at Phog U - this game matches up Mike Leach and his successor as offensive coordinator, Mark Mangino. Leach's Red Raiders rank 1st in the country in passing yards per game. The Jayhawks are 100th in passing yards allowed per game. Kansas is 4th in passing yards and TT is 104th in passing yards allowed per game. This game should be as loaded offensively as the Sooners-Jayhawks tilt last week. Texas Tech is 9-1 against Kansas and has never lost in Lawrence. Pick: Texas Tech
• Colorado at Mizzou - Now that the Tigers national championship hopes have been crushed, how will they respond? How will Colorado respond with the QB shuttle between Coach's son and the true freshman? Will Chase Daniel go back to picking his nose on the sideline now that his Heisman chances are diminished? Colorado has the best passing defense in the Big 12 conference, which is like being the most conservative Democrat. Colorado last won in Columbia in 2002. I don't see that happening in 08, either. Pick: Tigers.

Predictions - Week 8

• Baylor at Oklahoma State – Baylor trails in this series 12-14. Prior to the start of the Big XII, Baylor led the series 11-3. The last time Baylor won in Stillwater was 1939. The Cowboy loss drove a despondent Eddie Sutton to start drinking as an elementary student. He hasn’t stopped since. The Pokes appear to be the real deal after upsetting Missouri on the rode. Baylor is playing better than expected, and the Bears are hoping to catch the Cowboys basking in the glow of the Mizzou upset and looking forward to the Texas game next week. If this game was being televised by ESPN, they would tell you it’s a trap game. A trap game is a game in which one team has little chance of winning but the WWL hopes you tune in to watch anyway. An upset special is where a gambling “expert” tempts you to give away your money on an unlikely scenario where he looks like a genius if he’s right. I’m torn between whether this is an upset special, a trap game, or a whooping. Prediction: Boone State
• Missouri at Texas – Mizzou has beaten Texas once since 1917, during the Mackovic era of Texas football. The last time Missouri beat Texas in Austin, Grover Cleveland POTUS. In that game, the Horns were hampered by the loss of Colt Gardere Bowie, who was suspended for the game due to an unfortunate incident involving a cow stuck on a fence just north of campus. The charges were later dismissed, but not until the week following the loss to the Tigers. Missouri is coming off a loss to Oklahoma State, who allowed TAMU to score more points than Missouri. Let that sink in for a minute. Prediction: Texas
• Nebraska at Iowa State – The loser of this game has the inside track on finishing in the basement of the Big 12 North. These teams have played annually since 1896. Basically, they started the same year Missouri won in Austin. The Cyclones are 10-34-2 in the series at home. Will the team that nearly beat Kansas show up? Or the team that was drilled by Baylor? Inquiring minds want to know. This mind says it’s 10-35-2 after Saturday, and the Huskers cruise the west of the way toward a 5th place finish in the North. Prediction: Nebraska
• Texas Tech at Texas A&M – The Dust Pirates travel to College Station to play the Aggies, where they ask the question, “If This is Home, why does my home have bat residue all over it?” The Aggies can’t run, and can’t defend. RC Slocum was 7-7 against Texas Tech. Coach Fran was 1-5 against Tech. The recent games have been close in College Station and blowouts in Lubbock. I see the Red Raider making themselves at home with the Aggies and leaving undefeated. Prediction: Dust Pirates
• Kansas State at Colorado – I just realized the Wildcats play in Bill Snyder Family Stadium. I think this is because the only time his family saw him was when they came to the stadium. Ron Prince is 2-0 against Texas and Colorado. Hawkins is 2-0 against Texas Tech. Go figure. These teams are battling for third place in the Big 12 North. Hawkins benched his son at quarterback last week. Colorado is renaming the stadium Dan Hawkins Family Stadium, as he’s no longer welcome at his suburban Boulder home. Prediction: Colorado.

Big 12 Predictions - Week 6

Mizzou vs Poor Man's Texas Tech - We won't type this very often, but Oklahoma State's defense is the best defense Missouri has played against yet. I don't think it will matter, though. Both teams have scored a lot without the ball. Boone State has scored 4 special teams or defensive TDs, and Missouri has tallied 5. Mizzou is 2nd in the natinoa in scoring offense and 44th in scoring defense. the Pokes are 3rd in scoring offense in 54th in scoring defense. Okie State doesn't get much big-time exposure outside of Coach Hair Gel's youtube rant. This will give them a chance to show the country what they can do. Which is: a) score a bunch; b) allow others to score a bunch. Prediction: Missouri



Baylor hosts Baylor North - Iowa State has been rocked this week by second string QB Phillip Bates leaving the team. Iowa State is 93rd in rushing defense and 97th in pass efficiency defense. On the otherhand, they had Kansas on the ropes going into halftime last Saturday. Baylor had OU on the ropes as well, but they were ski ropes for waterskiing on the Brazos River. Robert Griffin will wow a few more folks today, and the Bears will win. Prediction: Baylor.

CU Later at Phog U - Kansas is 22-42-3 against the Buffaloes, but have won the last 2. I see this being three in a row. KU is better offensively and defensively, and their coach is a better sumo wrestler. The only chance the Buffaloes have is for the Jayhawks to be thrown off while searching for a new cheer during kickoffs. Prediction: Jayhawks


Cash Machine U hosts Willie and Friends - The most telltale sign of where the Aggie program is to date is that K State is 1-2 in it's last three games and has given up 133 points in those games, and they are favored by 3 while playing AT Kyle Field. That's amazing. Sherman seems to have awakened to the fact that it's a good idea to give Javorskie Lane the ball periodically. Kansas State is atrocious on run defense, allowing 300 yards in 2 separate games. The Dust Pirates even ran for 136, and North Texas ran for 102. TAMU should run the ball a lot and allow the QBs shoulders to heal. Prediction: Texas A&M



Nebraska travels to Lubbock to take on the Dust Pirates- this is Texas Tech's homecoming week. Normally you schedule an inferior foe for homecoming. I don't think the Huskers were homecoming fodder pre-Callahan. Bo may be reviving the program, but that sucker is still in intensive care presently. The bugeater D is 97th in pass yard per game and 79th in pass efficiency defense. They allowed Tyrod Taylor to go 9 for 15 a few weeks ago . Graham Harrell and his mates will have a field day.
Prediction: Texas Tech

Weekend Preview - Week 6

CU Later at Longhorns - Mack Brown's Horns have never lost to the Buffaloes during the regular season. Margins of victory since Brown's arrival in 1998 are: 14, 34, 24, 25, 63. I think Colorado will lose by double digits, but Colorado will be a bit more formidable opponent than the Horns have been experiencing this year. Colorado is 8th in the country in yards allowed per pass attempt. Conversely, Colorado is 91st in yards allowed per rushing attempt, so expect Texas to have a big day running the ball. Prediction: Longhorns
Baylor North at Phog U - this rivalry has been played every year since 1932. In most years, no one gave a crap. Kansas has won the last three, and should make it four in a row. Prediction: Kansas.
Willie and Friends at Dust Pirates - the Great Pirate is 3-1 against Kansas State, and has won the last three. Kansas State has a decent pass defense, so expect Leach to be frustrated with his passing attack again this year.
Mizzou at Bugeaters - in what I would categorize as a mercy killing, the Tigers only beat Nebraska 41-6 last year. The Huskers are 95th in pass ypg allowed. I don't think that will get better this week when Chase Daniel, Chase Coffman and Jeremy Maclin come to Lincoln. Missouri hasn't stopped anyone this year either, making Juice Williams look like a Heisman candidate in the season opener and feasting on cupcakes every since. Prediction: Missouri.
Cash Machine Aggies at Boone State Aggies - The Pokes declined the opportunity to play this game on a Thursday night on ESPN. I would agree with the Pokes on that one. They can't get people to show up on Saturday, why raise the bar and expect them to get there on Thursday. Plus, Thursday is Ladies Night at the Casino. Anyway, the Pokes lead the nation in rushing offense, and the Aggies are 115th in rushing defense. TAMU hasn't scored more than 28 points in a game yet, and OSU hasn't scored less than 39. Pick: Oklahoma State.

Now for a few other games of note:
Kentucky at Alabama - Kentucky come into this game undefeated. Kentucky hasn't won a game in Tuscaloosa since 1977. Kentucky hasn't allowed a rushing TD this year. The teams have both played Western Kentucky, with the Tide winning 41-7 and the Wildcats winning 41-3. I don't see Kentucky breaking their 31 year drought in Tuscaloosa. Prediction: Alabama.
Oregon at Southern Cal - Southern Cal looks to rebound against Mike Belotti's Oregon Duck squad and avenge last year's loss to the Ducks.. Southern Cal curiously stumbled against the Beavers last week. They won't lose two in a row to Oregon. Prediction: Southern Cal
Ohio State at Wisconsin - Ohio State travels to Madison to take on the Badgers. Please God, let the Badgers win. This will drive a stake through the heart of the Buckeye national championship hopes. Tressel is 2-3 against Wisconsin, and I expect it will go to 2-4. Prediction: Badgers.