Landry Jones in the 4th Quarter

Much has been made the past couple of weeks about the Sooners woes in the 4th quarter and on the road.
Let's look at Landry's QB rating by quarter this year, and where it stands nationally.

Landry's QB rating ranking - meaning where does his QB rating rank nationally - by quarter

1st Qtr = 150.31, (35th)
2nd Qtr = 152.74, (35th)
3rd Qtr = 140.03 (47th)
4th Qtr = 101.61 (I'm not certain. The 100th best 4th quarter passer (minimum 14 attempts) in FBS is Ryan Nassib at Syracuse.
Ryan's rating is 116.78. Jordan Winn of Utah is 99th at 117.79.)

Let's just say Landry is way down there.

I was also curious to see if Landry's drop in production was extraordinary. Of the top 94 rated passers in FBS, Landry's ratings drop from his rating in Q1-Q3 to Q4 was 83rd. In a nutshell, Landry's a different QB in the fourth quarter. And not in a good way.

One could argue that Landry is young, and that he'll get better. This is someone that started ten games last year and played in twelve. He now has 20 games under his belt. I would love to think that it's going to improve. But it's just possible that it's not going to happen.

The Rest of the Way

I was wondering this morning what the top 10 teams strength of schedule was the rest of the way. Using the Sagarin predictor rating (not the politically correct BCS scoring), here are the strength of schedules of the top 10 teams in the BCS going into today's games. The parenthetical ranking is the ranking of the remaining strength of schedule:

1. Auburn 78.35 (3)
2. Oregon 84.92 (1)
3. Boise State 73.62 (5)
4. TCU 67.40 (10)
5. Michigan State 71.66 (8)
6. Missouri 73.11 (7)
7. Alabama 73.32 (6)
8. Utah 77.31 (4)
9. Oklahoma 78.56 (2)
10. Wisconsin 68.38 (9)

When I decided to research this, I thought it would show that Boise didn't play a tough schedule and that they had an easy road the rest of the way. Instead, what I found was their schedule is not unlike others.Some points to highlight:

• Alabama's remaining SOS would be higher, but the game against Georgia State drags them down.
• Auburn's remaining SOS would be higher, but the game against Chattanooga drags them down.
• Auburn's cupcake game against the Mocs of Chattanooga still presents a stronger foe than Boise State conference for Utah State
• Wisconsin has played their toughest games. Their toughest game remaining is at Michigan, who is  - according to Sagarin's predictor ratings - 4 points worse than Baylor. The Badgers remaining slate is: Purdue, Indiana, Michigan, Northwestern.
• In comparison, Boise State has two games expected to be tougher than Wisconsin's trip to Michigan: Hawaii and Nevada. Statistically speaking, Michigan and Idaho are similar foes.
• TCU's remaining SOS is dragged down by Mountain West cellar dwellers UNLV and New Mexico. 1-AA Georgia State has a higher ranking than New Mexico.
• In conclusion, I guess I think it's less likely that a Big 6 school leapfrog Boise down the stretch due to Boise's "weak schedule". However, the above doesn't factor in human perception (2/3 of the poll) or that Alabama's computer ranking would be boosted by winning out, including the SEC championship game. It does look possible that Oregon could lose, yet still stay up there due to their increasingly difficult schedule down the stretch. 

Stat of the Week

If the season were to end today, Landry Jones 17 passing TDs would rank as the 9th highest total in Sooner history. And the 8th highest total this decade.

Beating Texas and OU in the same year

From the LandThieves Research Department

One of the stats I've heard this week is "Texas Tech has never beaten Texas and OU in the same year." Since historically, one or both teams ahve been "pretty good", I decided to see how often that's happened.

First of all, it's happened twice in the history of the Big 12. That was in 1997, when Texas A&M and Oklahoma State both defeated the Horns and Sooners. Texas prevented that from happening again by firing Mackovic and hiring Mack Brown, and we followed suit in 98 with firing Blake and hiring that inexperienced Stoops fella.

There have been 164 teams that have played both squads in a season. Here is a breakdown of the 14 teams that have vanquished both foes:

• Colorado (1989, 1990, 1993, 1994)
• Kansas State (1926)
• Missouri (1916)
• Nebraska (1933, 1960)
• Notre Dame (1952)
• Oklahoma State (1944, 1997)
• Texas A&M (1951, 1994, 1997)

Data pulled from James Howell's most excellent college football score site.

Big 12 POWs

From the LandThieves research department, while reviewing the Big 12 weekly press release.

• Oklahoma has had one Big 12 offensive player of the week: Manual Johnson. We believe he's related to the Sooner player Manuel Johnson.
• OU has had three defensive POWs, Lendy Holmes, Keenan Clayton and Travis Lewis.
• Only two teams have had Special Teams POWs against OU: Jordan Shipley and Cyrus Gray.

LandThieves Stat of the Week - 1st Half Scoring

The Sooners have scored 355 points in the first half this year, an average of 35.5 points per game. Their first half scoring total alone would qualify them for 20th in scoring offense through yesterday's games.

There are only three games where the Sooners haven't scored enough points in the first half to win the game outright: Cincinnati, Texas and Kansas.

The Sooners have had at least one 20 point half in every game this year.

Big 12 Defense Apologetics

From the LandThieves research department...
I did a little number crunching today. The Big 12 is getting a lot of pub nationally for the awful defense we play here in the flyover states. If you isolate games played against the BCS conferences - so that we ignore most of the cupcakes, including Notre Dame and Western Kentucky - here is nonconference points per game allowed.


SEC - 19.64
Big 10 - 24.09
ACC - 25.65
MWC - 26.17
Big 12 - 26.21
Big East - 29.36
Pac 10 - 30.67


So, while the Big 12 is not that great, - 5th of the 7 - no one's complaining about the Big East and Pac 10 defenses. On the opposite side of the equation, let's look at the ppg allowed in conf play, and the difference between conf and non conference.


SEC - 22.4, +2.76
Big 10 - 23.68, -0.41
ACC - 21.10, -4.54
MWC - 24.33, -1.84
Big 12 - 32.35, +6.14
Big East - 23.05, -6.31
Pac 10 - 27.35, -3.32

Finally, an element to consider is the ppg scored in conference vs nonconference. Since conf points scored is the same as points allowed, below is ppg scored in nonconference games, and the increase/-decrease compared to conference games.

SEC - 21.91, -0.49
Big 10 - 28.73, +5.05
ACC -24.18, +3.07
MWC - 26.92, +2.59
Big 12 - 33.00, +0.65
Big East - 24.00, +0.95
Pac 10 - 24.33, -3.01

So, what do we learn from all these "figgers"?

• No one outside of the Big 12 conference could stop the Big 12 offenses either. In fact, Big 12 defenses deter Big 12 offenses better than non-Big 12 defenses. This includes reputable defenses like Cincinnati, Wake Forest, TCU, West Virginia, South Florida, Connecticut and Florida State.
• The SEC is horrible offensively, averaging 21.91 points per game in nonconference games. Of course, of the 12 SEC teams, they only managed 11 games against schools from these conferences.
• The Big East was the second worst offense. Amazingly, in spite of having the second worst defense, the in conference scoring average went down.
• The Pac 10 numbers are somewhat misleading courtesy of the awfulness that is football in the state of Washington now. However, Wazzuu's 2nd best defensive performance was against Big 12 juggernaut Okie State.
• The Big 10 offense is second under this point of view, which is just stunning. The Big 10 also only managed 11 games against these conferences, and only encompasses 8 of the 11 teams.
• We must extend special recognition to the schools that were unable to schedule anyone from the BCS conferences or MWC: Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Air Force, San Diego State, Wyoming and LSU.
• There were 5 schools to schedule 3 games against BCS + MWC: Colorado, Baylor, Oklahoma, Connecticut and California.

LandThieves Stat of the Week - OSU and the DJIA

This morning, I compared the performance from Sep 1- Dec 1 of the Dow Jones Industrial Average each year to the winning percentage of the Oklahoma State Cowboys football program, since 1960. Below are my findings:


From 1960-2007, the Cowboys have had 19 winning seasons. In those periods, the market has returned on average a 2.11% return for the period, which equates to a 8.44% annual return. The best performance was 16.4% (1985) and the worst performance was a loss of 25% (1987).


Conversely, the Cowboys have had 28 losing seasons. In those periods, the market has returned on average a 4.81% return for the period, which equates to a 19.3% annual return. The best performance was 17.07% (1998) and the worst performance was a loss of 7% (1978). So when the Cowboys lose, maximum performance is better and losses were less. It's the best of both worlds, as Hannah Montana would say.


Further analysis shows that the Pokes have had 8 seasons where they won more than 65% of their games. Those seasons yielded an average return of 1,24%, while seasons where they won less than 65% of their games yielded an average return of 4.09%.


Clearly, a good Oklahoma State football season is harmful to the Dow Jones Industrial average. in 2008, the Pokes are 7-0, and the DJIA is down 22% since Sep 1.


Momma, don't let your babies grow up to be Cowboys.

3rd Downs for Kansas

This game was a statistical anomaly. KU gained 491 yards, but was 0-10 on their first 10 3rd downs, and finished 2-12. The breakdown of yards per down, per the ESPN.com provided play-by-play stats:

KU
Down / plays / yds / yds per play
1 / 37 / 371 / 10
2 / 23 / 83 / 3.6
3 / 12 / 39 / 3.25

The 3.25 yards per play on 3rd down here is a bit misleading, because on their last two third downs, while trailing 45-21 with less than 5 minutes remaining in the game, Todd Reesing completed passes of 47 and 17 yards to Dezmon Briscoe. On their first ten 3rd down conversion attempts, Kansas was 0-10 , with 3 sacks for -25 yards, a Reesing rush for no yards, an interception and five other incompletions.

A friend asked me Sunday how Kansas scored 31 points if they were so unsuccessful on 3rd down. I think the 10 yards per play on 1st down offers some insight.

Also, Jayhawk WR Dezmon Briscoe lit the Sooners up for 269 receiving yards. Let's look at his catches and receiving yards per quarter

Qtr / Catches / Yds
1 / 4 / 60
2 / 5 / 133
3 / 1 / 12
4 / 2 / 64

The two 4th quarter catches were the 3rd down receptions. Of his first 10 receptions, 9 of them were on 1st down, totalling 185 yards.

Sam's impressive stats

• Bradford has passed for 1,227 yards in the Sooners three conference games. That total alone would put him with the 20th best yardage total in Sooner history.
• Sam has passed for 2,520 yards in seven games this season, which would be the 8th best total in Sooner history. The seven seasons ahead of him are all in Stoops tenure.
• The 26 TDs are the fifth highest season total ever, and he's got 5 games to go.
• From a career perspective, Bradford has throw for 5,641 yards, which is 4th alltime.
• Sam's 62 career TDs are 2nd alltime, behind Jason White's 81 TDs.

OU-TX Stat for the Day

OU is 4-6 against Texas on Oct 11, even though they've outscored the Horns 274-225 on this date. The 65-13 Sooner victory in 2003 helped tilt the point total in the Sooners favor.

Stoops as a No 1

Wondered today what Stoops record is while holding the #1 spot in the polls?

The research was made painfully easy by the folks behind www.soonerstats.com.

Stoops is 20-2 when leading the AP ranked #1 team in the land. Losses were to #13 ranked Kansas State in 2003, and to unranked Texas A&M in 2002. It was all downhill for Reggie McNeal from there. Stoops record against ranked foes while being #1 is 7-1, and basic math tells us he's 13-1 when playing unranked foes.

That is all. Nothing else to see here.

Odd Stat of the Day

Through games of last Saturday, the top three QBs in terms of the NCAA passing efficiency rating:

David Johnson, Tulsa
Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State

No, I'm not going to look that up to see if it's happened before. It's bedtime.

From the LandThieves Research Dept

JayDou asked the question today if the Big 12 had even gone undefeated in a week before. The answer is...no!

First of all, it's somewhat unusual for all 12 teams to play a nonconference game the same week. Second, the Big 12's storied history dates back to 1996. Back in the day, some of the teams had preseason kickoff classics, so you had uneven start dates as well.

The closest the conference had come to a clean sheet was in week 2 of 2001, when they went 11-1. Before you jump all over Baylor, I'd like to note that the Bears beat Arkansas State that day, while the Kansas Jayhawks fell to the UCLA Bruins 41-17.

The conference was 10-2 on four occasions (week 1 in 04 and 06, week 2 in 06 and 07) and went 10-1 on three occasions in week 2 (02, 03 and 05).

This info was pretty easy to get to courtesy of James Howell's excellent research.

Stat of the Week

After two weeks in the season, 11 Big 12 teams have broken out for a 20 point or more quarter. The sole squad not to break that barrier? Cash Machine U.

LandThieves Stat of the Week

The Sooners have not lost to a school that hails from the Volunteer state since January 2, 1939, when the Vols beat the Sooners in the Orange Bowl. At that time, the Sooners were 0-1-1 against Tennessee schools, but have rebounded to win their last four games against Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee State.